도심 교차로에서의 자율주행을 위한 주변 차량 경로 예측 및 거동 계획 알고리즘

학위논문(박사)--서울대학교 대학원 :공과대학 기계항공공학부,2020. 2. 이경수.차랑용 센싱 및 처리기술이 발달함에 따라 자동차 기술 연구가 수동 안전 기술에서 능동 안전 기술로 초점이 확장되고 있다. 최근, 주요 자동차 제작사들은 능동형 차간거리 제어, 차선 유지 보조, 그리고 긴급 자동 제동과 같은 능동 안전 기술이 이미 상업화하고 있다. 이러한 기술적 진보는 사상률 제로를 달성하기 위하여 기술 연구 분야를 능동 안전 기술을 넘어서 자율주행 시스템으로 확장시키고 있다. 특히, 도심 도로는 인도, 사각지대, 주차차량, 이륜차, 보행자 등과 같은 교통 위험 요소를 많이 갖고 있기 때문에 고속도로보다 사고 발생률과 사상률이 높으며, 이는 도심 도로에서의 자율주행은 핵심 이슈가 되고 있다. 많은 프로젝트들이 자율주행의 환경적, 인구학적, 사회적, 그리고 경제적 측면에서의 자율주행의 효과를 평가하기 위해 수행되었거나 수행 중에 있다. 예를 들어, 유럽의 AdaptIVE는 다양한 자율주행 기능을 개발하였으며, 구체적인 평가 방법론을 개발하였다. 또한, CityMobil2는 유럽 전역의 9개의 다른 환경에서 무인 지능형 차량을 성공적으로 통합하였다. 일본에서는 2014년 5월에 시작된 Automated Driving System Research Project는 자율주행 시스템과 차세대 도심 교통 수단의 개발 및 검증에 초점을 맞추었다. 기존 연구들에 대한 조사를 통해 자율주행 시스템은 교통 참여자들의 안전도를 향상시키고, 교통 혼잡을 감소시키며, 운전자 편의성을 증진시키는 것이 증명되었다. 다양한 방법론들이 인지, 거동 계획, 그리고 제어와 같은 도심 도로 자율주행차의 핵심 기술들을 개발하기 위하여 사용되었다. 하지만 많은 최신의 자율주행 연구들은 각 기술의 개발을 별개로 고려하여 진행해왔다. 결과적으로 통합적인 관점에서의 자율주행 기술 설계는 아직 충분히 고려되어 않았다. 따라서, 본 논문은 복잡한 도심 도로 환경에서 라이다, 카메라, GPS, 그리고 간단한 경로 맵에 기반한 완전 자율주행 알고리즘을 개발하는 것을 목표로 하였다. 제안된 자율주행 알고리즘은 비통제 교차로를 포함한 도심 도로 상황을 차량 거동 예측기와 모델 예측 제어 기법에 기반하여 설계되었다. 본 논문은 동적, 정적 환경 표현 및 종횡방향 거동 계획을 중점적으로 다루었다. 본 논문은 도심 도로 자율주행을 위한 거동 계획 알고리즘의 개요를 제시하였으며, 실제 교통 상황에서의 실험 결과는 제안된 알고리즘의 효과성과 운전자 거동과의 유사성을 보여주었다. 실차 실험 결과는 비통제 교차로를 포함한 도심 시나리오에서의 강건한 성능을 보여주었다.The foci of automotive researches have been expanding from passive safety systems to active safety systems with advances in sensing and processing technologies. Recently, the majority of automotive makers have already commercialized active safety systems, such as adaptive cruise control (ACC), lane keeping assistance (LKA), and autonomous emergency braking (AEB). Such advances have extended the research field beyond active safety systems to automated driving systems to achieve zero fatalities. Especially, automated driving on urban roads has become a key issue because urban roads possess numerous risk factors for traffic accidents, such as sidewalks, blind spots, on-street parking, motorcycles, and pedestrians, which cause higher accident rates and fatalities than motorways. Several projects have been conducted, and many others are still underway to evaluate the effects of automated driving in environmental, demographic, social, and economic aspects. For example, the European project AdaptIVe, develops various automated driving functions and defines specific evaluation methodologies. In addition, CityMobil2 successfully integrates driverless intelligent vehicles in nine other environments throughout Europe. In Japan, the Automated Driving System Research Project began on May 2014, which focuses on the development and verification of automated driving systems and next-generation urban transportation. From a careful review of a considerable amount of literature, automated driving systems have been proven to increase the safety of traffic users, reduce traffic congestion, and improve driver convenience. Various methodologies have been employed to develop the core technology of automated vehicles on urban roads, such as perception, motion planning, and control. However, the current state-of-the-art automated driving algorithms focus on the development of each technology separately. Consequently, designing automated driving systems from an integrated perspective is not yet sufficiently considered. Therefore, this dissertation focused on developing a fully autonomous driving algorithm in urban complex scenarios using LiDAR, vision, GPS, and a simple path map. The proposed autonomous driving algorithm covered the urban road scenarios with uncontrolled intersections based on vehicle motion prediction and model predictive control approach. Mainly, four research issues are considered: dynamic/static environment representation, and longitudinal/lateral motion planning. In the remainder of this thesis, we will provide an overview of the proposed motion planning algorithm for urban autonomous driving and the experimental results in real traffic, which showed the effectiveness and human-like behaviors of the proposed algorithm. The proposed algorithm has been tested and evaluated using both simulation and vehicle tests. The test results show the robust performance of urban scenarios, including uncontrolled intersections.Chapter 1 Introduction 1 1.1. Background and Motivation 1 1.2. Previous Researches 4 1.3. Thesis Objectives 9 1.4. Thesis Outline 10 Chapter 2 Overview of Motion Planning for Automated Driving System 11 Chapter 3 Dynamic Environment Representation with Motion Prediction 15 3.1. Moving Object Classification 17 3.2. Vehicle State based Direct Motion Prediction 20 3.2.1. Data Collection Vehicle 22 3.2.2. Target Roads 23 3.2.3. Dataset Selection 24 3.2.4. Network Architecture 25 3.2.5. Input and Output Features 33 3.2.6. Encoder and Decoder 33 3.2.7. Sequence Length 34 3.3. Road Structure based Interactive Motion Prediction 36 3.3.1. Maneuver Definition 38 3.3.2. Network Architecture 39 3.3.3. Path Following Model based State Predictor 47 3.3.4. Estimation of predictor uncertainty 50 3.3.5. Motion Parameter Estimation 53 3.3.6. Interactive Maneuver Prediction 56 3.4. Intersection Approaching Vehicle Motion Prediction 59 3.4.1. Driver Behavior Model at Intersections 59 3.4.2. Intention Inference based State Prediction 63 Chapter 4 Static Environment Representation 67 4.1. Static Obstacle Map Construction 69 4.2. Free Space Boundary Decision 74 4.3. Drivable Corridor Decision 76 Chapter 5 Longitudinal Motion Planning 81 5.1. In-Lane Target Following 82 5.2. Proactive Motion Planning for Narrow Road Driving 85 5.2.1. Motivation for Collision Preventive Velocity Planning 85 5.2.2. Desired Acceleration Decision 86 5.3. Uncontrolled Intersection 90 5.3.1. Driving Phase and Mode Definition 91 5.3.2. State Machine for Driving Mode Decision 92 5.3.3. Motion Planner for Approach Mode 95 5.3.4. Motion Planner for Risk Management Phase 98 Chapter 6 Lateral Motion Planning 105 6.1. Vehicle Model 107 6.2. Cost Function and Constraints 109 Chapter 7 Performance Evaluation 115 7.1. Motion Prediction 115 7.1.1. Prediction Accuracy Analysis of Vehicle State based Direct Motion Predictor 115 7.1.2. Prediction Accuracy and Effect Analysis of Road Structure based Interactive Motion Predictor 122 7.2. Prediction based Distance Control at Urban Roads 132 7.2.1. Driving Data Analysis of Direct Motion Predictor Application at Urban Roads 133 7.2.2. Case Study of Vehicle Test at Urban Roads 138 7.2.3. Analysis of Vehicle Test Results on Urban Roads 147 7.3. Complex Urban Roads 153 7.3.1. Case Study of Vehicle Test at Complex Urban Roads 154 7.3.2. Closed-loop Simulation based Safety Analysis 162 7.4. Uncontrolled Intersections 164 7.4.1. Simulation based Algorithm Comparison of Motion Planner 164 7.4.2. Monte-Carlo Simulation based Safety Analysis 166 7.4.3. Vehicle Tests Results in Real Traffic Conditions 172 7.4.4. Similarity Analysis between Human and Automated Vehicle 194 7.5. Multi-Lane Turn Intersections 197 7.5.1. Case Study of a Multi-Lane Left Turn Scenario 197 7.5.2. Analysis of Motion Planning Application Results 203 Chapter 8 Conclusion & Future Works 207 8.1. Conclusion 207 8.2. Future Works 209 Bibliography 210 Abstract in Korean 219Docto

Probabilistic Framework for Behavior Characterization of Traffic Participants Enabling Long Term Prediction

This research aims at developing new methods that predict the behaviors of the human driven traffic participants to enable safe operation of autonomous vehicles in complex traffic environments. Autonomous vehicles are expected to operate amongst human driven conventional vehicles in the traffic at least for the next few decades. For safe navigation they will need to infer the intents as well as the behaviors of the human traffic participants using extrinsically observable information, so that their trajectories can be predicted for a time horizon long enough to do a predictive risk analysis and gracefully avert any risky situation. This research approaches this challenge by recognizing that any maneuver performed by a human driver can be divided into four stages that depend on the surrounding context: intent determination, maneuver preparation, gap acceptance and maneuver execution. It builds on the hypothesis that for a given driver, the behavior not only spans across these four maneuver stages, but across multiple maneuvers. As a result, identifying the driver behavior in any of these stages can help characterize the nature of all the subsequent maneuvers that the driver is likely to perform, thus resulting in a more accurate prediction for a longer time horizon. To enable this, a novel probabilistic framework is proposed that couples the different maneuver stages of the observed traffic participant together and associates them to a driving style. To realize this framework two candidate Multiple Model Adaptive Estimation approaches were compared: Autonomous Multiple Model (AMM) and Interacting Multiple Model(IMM) filtering approach. The IMM approach proved superior to the AMM approach and was eventually validated using a trajectory extracted from a real world dataset for efficacy. The proposed framework was then implemented by extending the validated IMM approach with contextual information of the observed traffic participant. The classification of the driving style of the traffic participant (behavior characterization) was then demonstrated for two use case scenarios. The proposed contextual IMM (CIMM) framework also showed improvements in the performance of the behavior classification of the traffic participants compared to the IMM for the identified use case scenarios. This outcome warrants further exploration of this framework for different traffic scenarios. Further, it contributes towards the ongoing endeavors for safe deployment of autonomous vehicles on public roads

Neural Network Predicting Remote Vehicle Movement with Vehicle-to-Vehicle Data

This paper presents a neural network developed for predicting the path of a remote vehicle using post facto created vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) data and uses that prediction to determine whether it is safe for the host vehicle to change lanes. The data was collected in a 2013 experiment involving various drivers traveling on public roads in Ann Arbor, MI. The trips were on suburban roads, city roads and divided highways over a two-day period. The vehicular satellite global positioning system (GPS) data from movement over this period was gathered and post-processed to find vehicle paths within 10 meters of one another. The path traces of the two vehicles were combined to simulate what a V2V network would have provided to properly equipped vehicles if such a network and vehicles existed on real road networks demonstrating natural driving behavior. This research harnesses this data to determine the increased effectiveness of a neural network predicting the future path of remote vehicles and lane change safety when a V2V network is available. The most studied maneuver is overtaking. To a lesser extent, this paper also provides a view into how a neural network predicts remote vehicle behaviors using a host vehicle equipped with only perceptive hardware and no given information from the remote vehicle.Master of Science in EngineeringElectrical Engineering, College of Engineering & Computer ScienceUniversity of Michigan-Dearbornhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/146791/1/49698122_breg_thesis_embedded (1).pd

A survey on motion prediction and risk assessment for intelligent vehicles

International audienceWith the objective to improve road safety, the automotive industry is moving toward more “intelligent” vehicles. One of the major challenges is to detect dangerous situations and react accordingly in order to avoid or mitigate accidents. This requires predicting the likely evolution of the current traffic situation, and assessing how dangerous that future situation might be. This paper is a survey of existing methods for motion prediction and risk assessment for intelligent vehicles. The proposed classification is based on the semantics used to define motion and risk. We point out the tradeoff between model completeness and real-time constraints, and the fact that the choice of a risk assessment method is influenced by the selected motion model

Loss of Control Prediction for Motorcycles during Emergency Braking Maneuvers Using a Supervised Learning Algorithm

The most common evasive maneuver among motorcycle riders and one of the most complicated to perform in emergency situations is braking. Because of the inherent instability of motorcycles, motorcycle crashes are frequently caused by loss of control performing braking as an evasive maneuver. Understanding the motion conditions that lead riders to start losing control is essential for defining countermeasures capable of minimizing the risk of this type of crashes. This paper provides predictive models to classify unsafe loss of control braking maneuvers on a straight line before becoming irreversibly unstable. We performed braking maneuver experiments in the field with motorcycle riders facing a simulated emergency scenario. The latter involved a mock-up intersection in which we generated conflict events between the motorcycle ridden by the participants and an oncoming car driven by trained research staff. The data collected comprises 165 braking trials (including 11 trials identified as loss of control) with 13 riders representing four categories of braking skill, ranging from beginner to expert. Three predictive models of loss of control events during braking trials, going from a basic model to a more advanced one, were defined using logistic regressions as supervised learning methods and using the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve as a performance indicator. The predictor variables of the models were identified among the parameters of the vehicle kinematics. The best model predicted 100% of the loss of control and 100% of the full control cases. The basic and the more advanced supervised models were adapted for loss of control identification with time series data, and the results detecting in real-time the loss of control events showed excellent performance as well as with the supervised models. The study showed that expert riders may maintain stability under dynamic conditions that normally lead less skilled riders to a loss of control or falling events. The best decision thresholds of the most relevant kinematic parameters to predict loss of control have been defined. The thresholds of parameters that typically characterize the loss of control such as the yaw rate and front-wheel lock duration were dependent on the rider skill levels. The peak-to-root-mean-square ratio of roll acceleration was the most robust parameter for identifying loss of control among all skill levels

Driver's Braking Behavior

Summary The driver's braking behavior while approaching zebra crossings under different safety measures (curb extensions, parking restrictions, and advance yield markings) and without treatment (baseline condition) was examined. The speed reduction time was the variable used to describe the driver's behavior. Forty-two drivers drove a driving simulator on an urban scenario in which the baseline condition and the safety measures were implemented. The speed reduction time was modeled with a parametric duration model to compare the effects on driver's braking behavior of vehicle dynamic variables and different countermeasures. The parametric accelerated failure time duration model with a Weibull distribution identified that the vehicle dynamic variables and only the countermeasure curb extensions affected, in a statistically significant way, the driver's speed reduction time in response to a pedestrian crossing. This result shows that the driver, because of the improved visibility of the pedestrian allowed by the curb extensions, was able to receive a clear information and better to adapt his approaching speed to yield to the pedestrian, avoiding abrupt maneuvers. This also means a reduction of likelihood of rear-end collision due to less aggressive braking. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd

Microscopic Modeling of Driver Behavior Based on Modifying Field Theory for Work Zone Application

Because many freeways in the U.S. and abroad are being reconstructed or rehabilitated, it becomes increasingly important to plan and design freeway work zones with the utmost in safety and efficiency. Central to the effective design of work zones is being able to understand how drivers behave as they approach and enter a work zone area. While simple and complex microscopic models have been used over the years to analyze driver behavior, most models were not designed for application in work zones and thus do not capture the interdependencies between lane-changing and car-following vehicle movements along with the drivers’ cognitive and physical characteristics. With the use of psychology’s field theory, this dissertation develops a framework for creating vector-based, explanatory, deterministic microscopic models, to enhance our understanding of driver behavior in work zones and better aid freeway planners and designers. In field theory, an agent (i.e. the driver) views a field (i.e. the area surrounding the vehicle) filled with stimuli and perceives forces associated with each stimuli once these stimuli are internalized. Based on this theory, the new modeling framework, Modified Field Theory (MFT), is designed to directly incorporate drivers’ perceptions to roadway stimuli along with vehicle movements for drivers of different cognitive and physical abilities. From this framework, specific microscopic models, such as a simple freeway work zone car following model, can be created. It is postulated that models derived from this framework would more accurately reflect the driver decision-making process, naturally modeling the effects of external stimuli such as innovative geometric configurations, lane closures, and technology applications such as variable message boards. A simple freeway work zone car following model was created using the MFT framework. Two MFT car-following agents were created and calibrated. The second agent (Agent 2) followed the first agent (Agent 1) through a one-lane segment of freeway. Car-following data for Agent 2 was plotted on a graph of relative speed vs. distance to the lead vehicle, showing car-following behavior. Car-following behavior for Agent 2 was validated against Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) Turner Fairbank Highway Research Center (TFHRC) Living Laboratory data for simple freeway work zone car-following (Driver 15). The car-following behavior of Agent 2 replicated the “spiraling” trend observed in Driver 15. Unlike other models (such as Wiedemann), this model does not ‘force’ these trends to occur; these trends occur naturally, as a result of the perception-reaction time delay and the nature of the forces involved. Additionally, unusual car following trends reported for Driver 15 were replicated in Modified Field Theory when conditions surrounding each event were synthetically recreated. Results demonstrated that the Modified Field Theory framework can successfully replicate the process by which a driver scans the driving environment and reacts to their surroundings. Microscopic models can successfully be created using this framework. Results demonstrated that models created from this framework naturally recreate behavioral trends observed in empirical data, and that these models are capable of replicating driving behavior in unusual scenarios, such as the car following behavior of a subject vehicle when the lead vehicle has a strong sudden acceleration event. Before this model can be applied to work zones, other calibration and validation efforts are required