The microstructure of the U.S. treasury market

This article discusses the microstructure of the U.S. Treasury securities market. Treasury securities are nominally riskless debt instruments issued by the U.S. government. Microstructural analysis is a field of economics/finance that examines the roles played by heterogenous agents, institutional detail, and asymmetric information in the trading process. The article describes types of Treasury issues; stages of the Treasury market; the major players, including the role of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and the interdealer brokers; the structure of both the spot and futures markets; the findings of the seasonality/announcement and order book literature; and research on price discovery. We conclude by discussing possible future avenues of research.Government securities

Perfecting the market's knowledge of monetary policy

The rational expectations revolution made clear that a complete macro model requires a specification of the government's economic policy. We argue that monetary policy should be conducted in such a way that the market can predict policy actions. An implication of market success in predicting policy actions is that interest rates move ahead of the policy actions, and such a timing relationship may appear to some as the central bank following the market instead of leading it. Another implication of the market predicting policy actions is that nominal interest rate changes provide no useful information to the central bank about the strength of aggregate demand or inflationary expectations. Finally, the failure of the market to predict policy actions reflects a problem that needs to be addressed. We explore the theoretical implications of a monetary policy that is completely specified and perfectly understood by the market. We construct a bare-bones model to illustrate the key concepts. Finally, we conduct an empirical investigation of these issues, especially in the context of monetary policy since 1988 when the establishment of the federal funds future market made available well-defined market information on expectations about Fed policy actions.Monetary policy ; Federal funds rate

Central Bank communication and monetary policy: a survey of theory and evidence

Over the last two decades, communication has become an increasingly important aspect of monetary policy. These real-world developments have spawned a huge new scholarly literature on central bank communication —mostly empirical, and almost all of it written in this decade. We survey this evergrowing literature. The evidence suggests that communication can be an important and powerful part of the central bank’s toolkit since it has the ability to move financial markets, to enhance the predictability of monetary policy decisions, and potentially to help achieve central banks’ macroeconomic objectives. However, the large variation in communication strategies across central banks suggests that a consensus has yet to emerge on what constitutes an optimal communication strategy. JEL Classification: E52, E58Central Bank, communication, monetary policy

Economic policy for the information economy : a summary of the Bank's 2001 Economic Symposium

The economies of the industrialized countries are being reshaped by the rapid development and diffusion of advanced information and communications technologies. Access to information is unprecedented, and the ability to process and exchange information has helped businesses increase efficiency and households raise their standards of living. There has been considerable agreement as to the broad features of the emerging information economy. But there has been less consensus on the likely magnitude and significance of the economic effects or on the important policy issues raised by these developments.> The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City sponsored a symposium, “Economic Policy for the Information Economy,” at Jackson Hole, Wyoming, on August 30 – September 1, 2001. The symposium brought together a distinguished group of central bankers, academics, and financial market experts to examine how the information economy will alter the structure of economic activity. The symposium also served as a forum for addressing key policy challenges.> Mr. Hakkio summarizes the principal issues raised at the symposium. Participants agreed that the information economy has changed the microeconomic and macroeconomic structure of the U.S. and foreign economies. The general consensus at the symposium was that long-run growth was probably 3 to 3 ½ percent, compared to 2 ¼ to 2 ½ percent in the 1980s and early 1990s.Information technology

Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy: A Survey of Theory and Evidence

Over the last two decades, communication has become an increasingly important aspect of monetary policy. These real-world developments have spawned a huge new scholarly literature on central bank communication—mostly empirical, and almost all of it written in this decade. We survey this ever-growing literature. The evidence suggests that communication can be an important and powerful part of the central bank’s toolkit since it has the ability to move financial markets, to enhance the predictability of monetary policy decisions, and potentially to help achieve central banks’ macroeconomic objectives. However, the large variation in communication strategies across central banks suggests that a consensus has yet to emerge on what constitutes an optimal communication strategy.

A Summary of the Bank of Canada Conference on Fixed-Income Markets, 3-4 May 2006

The Bank of Canada's interest in fixed-income markets spans several of its functional areas of responsibility, including monetary policy, funds management, and financial system stability and efficiency. For that reason, the 2006 conference brought together top academics and central bankers from around the world to discuss leading-edge work in the field of fixed-income research. The papers and discussions cover such topics as the efficiency of fixed-income markets, price formation, the determinants of the yield curve, and volatility modelling. This article provides a short summary of each conference paper and the ensuing discussion.

Effectiveness of central bank communication on financial markets in emerging economies, with a special focus on China

Central bank communication has become an important monetary policy tool. This is because it helps to improve the effectiveness of monetary policy by sharing information, which reduces uncertainty. Previous research on the topic has concentrated on central banks in developed economies, such as the Bank of England, the European Central Bank, and the Federal Reserve. This research contributes to the literature by providing insights from the perspective of emerging economies, where communications of Chinese and Indian central banks are examined. The first empirical chapter investigates the effectiveness of communication of People s Bank of China (PBOC) on Chinese financial markets: the interbank money market, the equity market, and foreign exchange markets, are analysed using time-series models. The main focus of the chapter includes an analysis of PBOC s credibility, construction of a new communication index on global economic outlook, more detailed communication indexes, and addressing how-to-communicate questions in the PBOC s communication strategies. The results indicate that the PBOC has credibility and its communication generally reduces volatility in these markets. The second empirical chapter looks at the role of the PBOC s communication in predicting policy rates, using an ordered probit model. The communication indexes constructed in the chapter cover both formal and informal communications of PBOC for 2009 to 2015 and a new communication index on money supply was also constructed. The main finding is that PBOC s communications (particularly on inflation) are useful for predicting PBOC s monetary policy stance. The money supply communication index has some, but not much predictability powers. Finally, the third empirical chapter compares central bank communications in China and India. The contribution of the chapter lies in the comparative analysis of two central banks communications of developing economies, which were overlooked in the extant literature. It shows that the communications on the countries monetary policy inclination have influence on macroeconomic variables of the countries, particularly, the short-term inflation expectations. The findings, therefore, suggest the effectiveness of communications as an unconventional monetary policy tool in emerging economies

Gauging the effectiveness of quantitative forward guidance: evidence from three inflation targeters

This paper conducts a comparative analysis of the performances of the forward guidance strategies adopted by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, the Norges Bank and the Riksbank, with the aim to gauge whether forward guidance via publication of an own interest rate path enhances a central bank’s ability to steer market expectations. Two main results emerge. First, we find evidence that all three central banks have been highly predictable in their monetary policy decisions and that long-term inflation expectations have been well anchored in the three economies, irrespective of whether forward guidance involved publication of an own interest rate path or not. Second, for New Zealand, we find weak evidence that a publication of a path could potentially enhance a central bank’s leverage on the medium term structure of interest rates. JEL Classification: E40, E43, E52central bank communication, forward guidance, monetary policy, Term structure of interest rates, transparency

Prominent Numbers, Indices and Ratios in Exchange Rate Determination and Financial Crashes: in Economists’ Models, in the Field and in the Laboratory

The prior paper in this sequel, Pope (2009) introduced the concept of a nominalist heuristic, defined as a focus on prominent numbers, indices or ratios. In this paper the concept is used to show three things in how scientists and practitioners analyse and evaluate to decide (conclude). First, in constructing theories such as purchasing power and interest parity to predict exchange rates and to advocate floating exchange rates, economists unwittingly employ nominalist heuristics. Second, nominalist heuristics have influenced actual exchange rates through the centuries, and this finding is replicated in the laboratory. Third, nominalist heuristics are incompatible with expected utility theory which excludes the evaluation stage, and are also incompatible with prospect theory which assumes that, while the evaluation stage can involve systematic mistakes, the overall decision situation is ultra simple. It is so simple that: a) economists and psychologists can mechanically model and identify what is a mistake, and b) decision makers can maximise. However, contrary to prospect theory, in the typical complex situation, neither a) nor b) holds. Assuming that a) and b) hold has resulted in the 1988 crisis from applying the Black Scholes formulae to forward exchange rates and contributed to sequel financial crises including that of 2007-2009. What is required is a fundamentally different class of models that allow for the progressive anticipated changes in knowledge ahead faced under risk and uncertainty, namely models under the umbrella of SKAT, the Stages of Knowledge Ahead Theory. The paper’s findings support a single world currency rather than variable unpredictable exchange rates subjected to the vagaries of how prominent numbers, ratios and indices influence events via the models of scientists and practitioners.nominalism, money illusion, heuristic, unpredictability, experiment, SKAT the Stages of Knowledge Ahead Theory, prominent numbers, prominent indices, prominent ratios, transparent policy, nominal equality, historical benchmarks, complexity, decision costs, evaluation, maximisation, Black Scholes, Lehmann Brothers, sub-prime crisis, central bank swaps