2,207 research outputs found

    Time Series Prediction of Bitcoin Cryptocurrency Price Based on Machine Learning Approach

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    Over the past few years, Bitcoin has attracted the attention of numerous parties, ranging from academic researchers to institutional investors. Bitcoin is the first and most widely used cryptocurrency to date. Due to the significant volatility of the Bitcoin price and the fact that its trading method does not require a third party, it has gained great popularity since its inception in 2009 among a wide range of individuals. Given the previous difficulties in predicting the price of cryptocurrencies, this project will be developing and implementing a time series approach-based solution prediction model using machine learning algorithms which include Support Vector Machine Regression (SVR), K-Nearest Neighbor Regression (KNN), Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) to determine the trend of bitcoin price movement, and assessing the effectiveness of the machine learning models. The data that will be used is the close prices of Bitcoin from the year 2018 up to the year 2023. The performance of the machine learning models is evaluated by comparing the results of R-squared, mean absolute error (MAE), mean squared error (RMSE), and also through a visualization graph of the original close price and predicted close price of Bitcoin in a dashboard. Among the models compared, LSTM emerged as the most accurate, followed by SVR, while XGBoost and KNN exhibited comparatively lower performance

    Measuring the Accuracy and Precision of Random Forest, Long Short-Term Memory, and Recurrent Neural Network Models in Predicting the Top and Bottom of Bitcoin price

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    The purpose of the present research is to use machine learning models to predict the price of Bitcoin, representing the cryptocurrency market. The price prediction model can be considered as the most important component in algorithmic trading. The performance of machine learning and its models, due to the nature of price behavior in financial markets, have been reported to be well in studies. In this respect, measuring and comparing the accuracy and precision of random forest (RF), long-short-term memory (LSTM), and recurrent neural network (RNN) models in predicting the top and bottom of Bitcoin prices are the main objectives of the present study. The approach to predicting top and bottom prices using machine learning models can be considered as the innovative aspect of this research, while many studies seek to predict prices as time series, simple, or logarithmic price returns. Pricing top and bottom data as target variables and technical analysis indicators as feature variables in the 1-hour time frame from 1/1/2018 to 6/31/2022 served as input to the mentioned models for learning. Validation and testing are presented and used. 70% of the data are considered learning data, 20% as validation data, and the remaining 10% as test data. The result of this research shows over 80% accuracy in predicting the top and bottom Bitcoin price, and the random forest model’s prediction is more accurate than the LSTM and RNN models

    Bitcoin Price Prediction Using Machine Learning Techniques

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    This paper discusses, trying to accurately assess the price of Bitcoin by looking at differ-ent parameters affects the value of Bitcoin. In our work, we focus on understanding and seeing the evolution of Bitcoin daily market, a1 and gaining intuition in the most rele-vant aspects surrounding the Bitcoin price. In the meantime, market capitalization of publicly traded cryptocurrencies exceeds $ 230 billion. The most important cryptocur-rency, Bitcoin, is used primarily as a digital value store, and its pricing opportunities have been extensively considered. These features are described in more detail in the fol-lowing paragraph: details of the main Bitcoin, as described in the paper. Bitcoin is the most expensive digital currency in the market. However, Bitcoin prices have been highly volatile, making it difficult to forecast. As a result, the goal of this research is to find the most efficient and accurate model for predicting Bitcoin prices using various machine learning algorithms. Several regression models with scikit-learn and Keras libraries were tested using 1-minute interval trading data from the Bitcoin exchange website bit stamp from January 1. 2012 to January 8, 2018. The best results showed a Mean Squared Error (MSE) as low as 0.00002 and an R- Square (R2) as high as 99.2 percent

    Machine Learning and the Network Analysis of Ethereum Trading Data

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    Since their conception, cryptocurrencies have captured the public interest, motivating a growing body of research aimed at exploring blockchain-based transactions. This said, little work has been done to draw conclusions from transaction patterns, particularly in the realm of predicting cryptocurrency price movements. Moreover, research in the cryptocurrency sphere largely focuses on Bitcoin, paying little attention to Ethereum, Bitcoin\u27s second-in-line with respect to market capitalization. In this paper, we construct hourly networks for a year of Ethereum transactions, using computed graph metrics as features in a series of machine learning models. We find that regression-based approaches to predicting Ether prices/price deltas primarily and almost exclusively rely on using current prices, motivating the need for classification models to predict price/up down movements rather than raw prices. Across a handful of such classification models, using hourly network metrics as input features, we are able to outperform baseline up/down prediction F-1 scores by up to 14%, accuracy by up to 5%, precision by up to 50%, and recall by up to 7%. These findings have implications for the future of cryptocurrency price prediction and trading activity, and suggest further research

    Time-series forecasting of Bitcoin prices using high-dimensional features: a machine learning approach

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    Bitcoin is a decentralized cryptocurrency, which is a type of digital asset that provides the basis for peer-to-peer financial transactions based on blockchain technology. One of the main problems with decentralized cryptocurrencies is price volatility, which indicates the need for studying the underlying price model. Moreover, Bitcoin prices exhibit nonstationary behavior, where the statistical distribution of data changes over time. This paper demonstrates high-performance machine learning-based classification and regression models for predicting Bitcoin price movements and prices in short and medium terms. In previous works, machine learning-based classification has been studied for an only one-day time frame, while this work goes beyond that by using machine learning-based models for one, seven, thirty and ninety days. The developed models are feasible and have high performance, with the classification models scoring up to 65% accuracy for next-day forecast and scoring from 62 to 64% accuracy for seventh–ninetieth-day forecast. For daily price forecast, the error percentage is as low as 1.44%, while it varies from 2.88 to 4.10% for horizons of seven to ninety days. These results indicate that the presented models outperform the existing models in the literature

    Machine Learning based Cryptocurrency Price Prediction using historical data and Social Media Sentiment

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    The purpose of this research is to investigate the impact of social media sentiments on predicting the Bitcoin price using machine learning models, with a focus on integrating on-chain data and employing a Multi Modal Fusion Model. For conducting the experiments, the crypto market data, on-chain data, and corresponding social media data (Twitter) has been collected from 2014 to 2022 containing over 2000 samples. We trained various models over historical data including K-Nearest Neighbors, Logistic Regression, Gaussian Naive Bayes, Support Vector Machine, Extreme Gradient Boosting and a Multi Modal Fusion. Next, we added Twitter sentiment data to the models, using the Twitter-roBERTa and VADAR models to analyse the sentiments expressed in social media about Bitcoin. We then compared the performance of these models with and without the Twitter sentiment data and found that the inclusion of sentiment feature resulted in consistently better performance, with Twitter-RoBERTa-based sentiment giving an average F1 scores of 0.79. The best performing model was an optimised Multi Modal Fusion classifier using Twitter-RoBERTa based sentiment, producing an F1 score of 0.85. This study represents a significant contribution to the field of financial forecasting by demonstrating the potential of social media sentiment analysis, on-chain data integration, and the application of a Multi Modal Fusion model to improve the accuracy and robustness of machine learning models for predicting market trends, providing a valuable tool for investors, brokers, and traders seeking to make informed decisions
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