Predictive Analysis on Twitter: Techniques and Applications

Predictive analysis of social media data has attracted considerable attention from the research community as well as the business world because of the essential and actionable information it can provide. Over the years, extensive experimentation and analysis for insights have been carried out using Twitter data in various domains such as healthcare, public health, politics, social sciences, and demographics. In this chapter, we discuss techniques, approaches and state-of-the-art applications of predictive analysis of Twitter data. Specifically, we present fine-grained analysis involving aspects such as sentiment, emotion, and the use of domain knowledge in the coarse-grained analysis of Twitter data for making decisions and taking actions, and relate a few success stories

Survey on Link Prediction and Page Ranking In Blogs S.Geetha

This paper presents a study of the various aspects of link prediction and page ranking in blogs. Social networks have taken on a new eminence from the prospect of the analysis of social networks, which is a recent area of research which grew out of the social sciences as well as the exact sciences, especially with the computing capacity for mathematical calculations and even modelling which was previously impossible. An essential element of social media, particularly blogs, is the hyperlink graph that connects various pieces of content. Link prediction has many applications, including recommending new items in online networks (e.g., products in eBay and Amazon, and friends in Face book), monitoring and preventing criminal activities in a criminal network, predicting the next web page users will visit, and complementing missing links in automatic web data crawlers. Page Rank is the technique used by Google to determine importance of page on the web. It considers all incoming links to a page as votes for Page Rank. Our findings provide an overview of social relations and we address the problem of page ranking and link prediction in networked data, which appears in many applications such as network analysis or recommended systems. Keywords- web log, social networks analysis, readership, link prediction, Page ranking. I

Automatic domain ontology extraction for context-sensitive opinion mining

Automated analysis of the sentiments presented in online consumer feedbacks can facilitate both organizations’ business strategy development and individual consumers’ comparison shopping. Nevertheless, existing opinion mining methods either adopt a context-free sentiment classification approach or rely on a large number of manually annotated training examples to perform context sensitive sentiment classification. Guided by the design science research methodology, we illustrate the design, development, and evaluation of a novel fuzzy domain ontology based contextsensitive opinion mining system. Our novel ontology extraction mechanism underpinned by a variant of Kullback-Leibler divergence can automatically acquire contextual sentiment knowledge across various product domains to improve the sentiment analysis processes. Evaluated based on a benchmark dataset and real consumer reviews collected from Amazon.com, our system shows remarkable performance improvement over the context-free baseline

Politische Maschinen: Maschinelles Lernen für das Verständnis von sozialen Maschinen

This thesis investigates human-algorithm interactions in sociotechnological ecosystems. Specifically, it applies machine learning and statistical methods to uncover political dimensions of algorithmic influence in social media platforms and automated decision making systems. Based on the results, the study discusses the legal, political and ethical consequences of algorithmic implementations.Diese Arbeit untersucht Mensch-Algorithmen-Interaktionen in sozio-technologischen Ökosystemen. Sie wendet maschinelles Lernen und statistische Methoden an, um politische Dimensionen des algorithmischen Einflusses auf Socialen Medien und automatisierten Entscheidungssystemen aufzudecken. Aufgrund der Ergebnisse diskutiert die Studie die rechtlichen, politischen und ethischen Konsequenzen von algorithmischen Anwendungen

Temporal Emotion Dynamics in Social Networks

[ES] El análisis de sentimientos en redes sociales se ha estudiado ampliamente durante la última década. A pesar de ello, las distintas categorías de sentimientos no se consideran adecuadamente en muchos casos, y el estudio de patrones de difusión de las emociones es limitado. Por lo tanto, comprender la importancia de emociones específicas será más beneficioso para diversas actividades de marketing, toma de decisiones empresariales y campañas políticas. Esta tesis doctoral se centra en el diseño de un marco teórico para analizar el amplio espectro de sentimientos y explicar cómo se propagan las emociones utilizando conceptos de redes temporales y multicapa. Particularmente, nuestro objetivo es proporcionar información sobre el modelado de la influencia de las emociones y como esta afecta a los problemas de estimación de las emociones y a la naturaleza dinámica temporal en la conversación social. Para mostrar la eficacia del modelo propuesto, se han recopilado publicaciones relacionadas con diferentes eventos de Twitter y hemos construido una estructura de red temporal sobre la conversación. En primer lugar, realizamos un análisis de sentimientos adoptando un enfoque basado en el léxico y en el modelo circunflejo de emociones de Russell que mejora la efectividad de la caracterización del sentimiento. A partir de este análisis investigamos la dinámica social de las emociones presente en las opiniones de los usuarios analizando diferentes características de influencia social. A continuación, diseñamos un modelo estocástico temporal basado en emociones para investigar el patrón de participación de los usuarios y predecir las emociones significativas. Nuestra contribución final es el desarrollo de un modelo de influencia secuencial basado en emociones mediante la utilización de redes neuronales recurrentes que permiten predecir emociones de una manera más completa. Finalmente, el documento presenta algunas conclusiones y también describe las direcciones de investigación futuras.[CA] L'anàlisi de sentiments en xarxes socials s'ha estudiat àmpliament durant l'última dècada. Malgrat això, les diferents categories de sentiments no es consideren adequadament en molts casos, i l'estudi de patrons de difusió de les emocions és limitat. Per tant, comprendre la importància d'emocions específiques serà més beneficiós per a diverses activitats de màrqueting, presa de decisions empresarials i campanyes polítiques. Aquesta tesi doctoral se centra en el disseny d'un marc teòric per a analitzar l'ampli espectre de sentiments i explicar com es propaguen les emocions utilitzant conceptes de xarxes temporals i multicapa. Particularment, el nostre objectiu és proporcionar informació sobre el modelatge de la influència de les emocions i com aquesta afecta als problemes d'estimació de les emocions i a la naturalesa dinàmica temporal en la conversa social. Per a mostrar l'eficàcia del model proposat, s'han recopilat publicacions relacionades amb diferents esdeveniments de Twitter i hem construït una estructura de xarxa temporal sobre la conversa. En primer lloc, realitzem una anàlisi de sentiments adoptant un enfocament basat en el lèxic i en el model circumflex d'emocions de Russell que millora l'efectivitat de la caracterització del sentiment. A partir d'aquesta anàlisi investiguem la dinàmica social de les emocions present en les opinions dels usuaris analitzant diferents característiques d'influència social. A continuació, dissenyem un model estocàstic temporal basat en emocions per a investigar el patró de participació dels usuaris i predir les emocions significatives. La nostra contribució final és el desenvolupament d'un model d'influència seqüencial basat en emocions mitjançant la utilització de xarxes neuronals recurrents que permeten predir emocions d'una manera més completa. Finalment, el document presenta algunes conclusions i també descriu les direccions d'investigació futures.[EN] Sentiment analysis in social networks has been widely analysed over the last decade. Despite the amount of research done in sentiment analysis in social networks, the distinct categories are not appropriately considered in many cases, and the study of dissemination patterns of emotions is limited. Therefore, understanding the significance of specific emotions will be more beneficial for various marketing activities, policy-making decisions and political campaigns. The current PhD thesis focuses on designing a theoretical framework for analyzing the broad spectrum of sentiments and explain how emotions are propagated using concepts from temporal and multilayer networks. More precisely, our goal is to provide insights into emotion influence modelling that solves emotion estimation problems and its temporal dynamics nature on social conversation. To exhibit the efficacy of the proposed model, we have collected posts related to different events from Twitter and build a temporal network structure over the conversation. Firstly, we perform sentiment analysis with the adaptation of a lexicon-based approach and the circumplex model of affect that enhances the effectiveness of the sentiment characterization. Subsequently, we investigate the social dynamics of emotion present in users' opinions by analyzing different social influential characteristics. Next, we design a temporal emotion-based stochastic model in order to investigate the engagement pattern and predict the significant emotions. Our ultimate contribution is the development of a sequential emotion-based influence model with the advancement of recurrent neural networks. It offers to predict emotions in a more comprehensive manner. Finally, the document presents some conclusions and also outlines future research directions.Naskar, D. (2022). Temporal Emotion Dynamics in Social Networks [Tesis doctoral]. Universitat Politècnica de València. https://doi.org/10.4995/Thesis/10251/180997TESI

Exploring the value of big data analysis of Twitter tweets and share prices

Over the past decade, the use of social media (SM) such as Facebook, Twitter, Pinterest and Tumblr has dramatically increased. Using SM, millions of users are creating large amounts of data every day. According to some estimates ninety per cent of the content on the Internet is now user generated. Social Media (SM) can be seen as a distributed content creation and sharing platform based on Web 2.0 technologies. SM sites make it very easy for its users to publish text, pictures, links, messages or videos without the need to be able to program. Users post reviews on products and services they bought, write about their interests and intentions or give their opinions and views on political subjects. SM has also been a key factor in mass movements such as the Arab Spring and the Occupy Wall Street protests and is used for human aid and disaster relief (HADR). There is a growing interest in SM analysis from organisations for detecting new trends, getting user opinions on their products and services or finding out about their online reputation. Companies such as Amazon or eBay use SM data for their recommendation engines and to generate more business. TV stations buy data about opinions on their TV programs from Facebook to find out what the popularity of a certain TV show is. Companies such as Topsy, Gnip, DataSift and Zoomph have built their entire business models around SM analysis. The purpose of this thesis is to explore the economic value of Twitter tweets. The economic value is determined by trying to predict the share price of a company. If the share price of a company can be predicted using SM data, it should be possible to deduce a monetary value. There is limited research on determining the economic value of SM data for “nowcasting”, predicting the present, and for forecasting. This study aims to determine the monetary value of Twitter by correlating the daily frequencies of positive and negative Tweets about the Apple company and some of its most popular products with the development of the Apple Inc. share price. If the number of positive tweets about Apple increases and the share price follows this development, the tweets have predictive information about the share price. A literature review has found that there is a growing interest in analysing SM data from different industries. A lot of research is conducted studying SM from various perspectives. Many studies try to determine the impact of online marketing campaigns or try to quantify the value of social capital. Others, in the area of behavioural economics, focus on the influence of SM on decision-making. There are studies trying to predict financial indicators such as the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). However, the literature review has indicated that there is no study correlating sentiment polarity on products and companies in tweets with the share price of the company. The theoretical framework used in this study is based on Computational Social Science (CSS) and Big Data. Supporting theories of CSS are Social Media Mining (SMM) and sentiment analysis. Supporting theories of Big Data are Data Mining (DM) and Predictive Analysis (PA). Machine learning (ML) techniques have been adopted to analyse and classify the tweets. In the first stage of the study, a body of tweets was collected and pre-processed, and then analysed for their sentiment polarity towards Apple Inc., the iPad and the iPhone. Several datasets were created using different pre-processing and analysis methods. The tweet frequencies were then represented as time series. The time series were analysed against the share price time series using the Granger causality test to determine if one time series has predictive information about the share price time series over the same period of time. For this study, several Predictive Analytics (PA) techniques on tweets were evaluated to predict the Apple share price. To collect and analyse the data, a framework has been developed based on the LingPipe (LingPipe 2015) Natural Language Processing (NLP) tool kit for sentiment analysis, and using R, the functional language and environment for statistical computing, for correlation analysis. Twitter provides an API (Application Programming Interface) to access and collect its data programmatically. Whereas no clear correlation could be determined, at least one dataset was showed to have some predictive information on the development of the Apple share price. The other datasets did not show to have any predictive capabilities. There are many data analysis and PA techniques. The techniques applied in this study did not indicate a direct correlation. However, some results suggest that this is due to noise or asymmetric distributions in the datasets. The study contributes to the literature by providing a quantitative analysis of SM data, for example tweets about Apple and its most popular products, the iPad and iPhone. It shows how SM data can be used for PA. It contributes to the literature on Big Data and SMM by showing how SM data can be collected, analysed and classified and explore if the share price of a company can be determined based on sentiment time series. It may ultimately lead to better decision making, for instance for investments or share buyback