Wi-PoS : a low-cost, open source ultra-wideband (UWB) hardware platform with long range sub-GHz backbone

Ultra-wideband (UWB) localization is one of the most promising approaches for indoor localization due to its accurate positioning capabilities, immunity against multipath fading, and excellent resilience against narrowband interference. However, UWB researchers are currently limited by the small amount of feasible open source hardware that is publicly available. We developed a new open source hardware platform, Wi-PoS, for precise UWB localization based on Decawave’s DW1000 UWB transceiver with several unique features: support of both long-range sub-GHz and 2.4 GHz back-end communication between nodes, flexible interfacing with external UWB antennas, and an easy implementation of the MAC layer with the Time-Annotated Instruction Set Computer (TAISC) framework. Both hardware and software are open source and all parameters of the UWB ranging can be adjusted, calibrated, and analyzed. This paper explains the main specifications of the hardware platform, illustrates design decisions, and evaluates the performance of the board in terms of range, accuracy, and energy consumption. The accuracy of the ranging system was below 10 cm in an indoor lab environment at distances up to 5 m, and accuracy smaller than 5 cm was obtained at 50 and 75 m in an outdoor environment. A theoretical model was derived for predicting the path loss and the influence of the most important ground reflection. At the same time, the average energy consumption of the hardware was very low with only 81 mA for a tag node and 63 mA for the active anchor nodes, permitting the system to run for several days on a mobile battery pack and allowing easy and fast deployment on sites without an accessible power supply or backbone network. The UWB hardware platform demonstrated flexibility, easy installation, and low power consumption

Towards A New Early Warning System of Financial Crises

This paper develops a new Early Warning System (EWS) model for predicting financial crises, based on a multinomial logit model. It is shown that EWS approaches based on binomial discrete-dependent-variable models can be subject to what we call a post-crisis bias. This bias arises when no distinction is made between tranquil periods, when economic fundamentals are largely sound and sustainable, and crisis/post-crisis periods, when economic variables go through an adjustment process before reaching a more sustainable level or growth path. We show that applying a multinomial logit model, which allows distinguishing between more than two states, is a valid way of solving this problem and constitutes a substantial improvement in the ability to forecast financial crises. The empirical results reveal that, for a set of 32 open emerging markets from 1993 till the present, the model would have correctly predicted a large majority of crises in emerging markets. Moreover, we derive general results about the optimal design of EWS models, which allows policy-makers to make an optimal choice based on their degree of risk-aversion against unanticipated financial crises.currency crises, Early Warning System, crisis prediction

Towards a new early warning system of financial crises

This paper develops a new Early Warning System (EWS) model for predicting financial crises, based on a multinomial logit model. It is shown that EWS approaches based on binomial discrete-dependent-variable models can be subject to what we call a post-crisis bias. This bias arises when no distinction is made between tranquil periods, when economic fundamentals are largely sound and sustainable, and crisis/post-crisis periods, when economic variables go through an adjustment process before reaching a more sustainable level or growth path. We show that applying a multinomial logit model, which allows distinguishing between more than two states, is a valid way of solving this problem and constitutes a substantial improvement in the ability to forecast financial crises. The empirical results reveal that, for a set of 32 open emerging markets from 1993 till the present, the model would have correctly predicted a large majority of crises in emerging markets. Moreover, we derive general results about the optimal design of EWS models, which allows policy-makers to make an optimal choice based on their degree of risk-aversion against unanticipated financial crises. JEL Classification: F31, F47, F30crisis prediction, currency crises, Early Warning System

Effective and Efficient Communication and Collaboration in Participatory Environments

Participatory environments pose significant challenges to deploying real applications. This dissertation investigates exploitation of opportunistic contacts to enable effective and efficient data transfers in challenged participatory environments. There are three main contributions in this dissertation: 1. A novel scheme for predicting contact volume during an opportunistic contact (PCV); 2. A method for computing paths with combined optimal stability and capacity (COSC) in opportunistic networks; and 3. An algorithm for mobility and orientation estimation in mobile environments (MOEME). The proposed novel scheme called PCV predicts contact volume in soft real-time. The scheme employs initial position and velocity vectors of nodes along with the data rate profile of the environment. PCV enables efficient and reliable data transfers between opportunistically meeting nodes. The scheme that exploits capacity and path stability of opportunistic networks is based on PCV for estimating individual link costs on a path. The total path cost is merged with a stability cost to strike a tradeoff for maximizing data transfers in the entire participatory environment. A polynomial time dynamic programming algorithm is proposed to compute paths of optimum cost. We propose another novel scheme for Real-time Mobility and Orientation Estimation for Mobile Environments (MOEME), as prediction of user movement paves way for efficient data transfers, resource allocation and event scheduling in participatory environments. MOEME employs the concept of temporal distances and uses logistic regression to make real time estimations about user movement. MOEME relies only on opportunistic message exchange and is fully distributed, scalable, and requires neither a central infrastructure nor Global Positioning System. Indeed, accurate prediction of contact volume, path capacity and stability and user movement can improve performance of deployments. However, existing schemes for such estimations make use of preconceived patterns or contact time distributions that may not be applicable in uncertain environments. Such patterns may not exist, or are difficult to recognize in soft-real time, in open environments such as parks, malls, or streets

Code Prediction by Feeding Trees to Transformers

We advance the state-of-the-art in the accuracy of code prediction (next token prediction) used in autocomplete systems. First, we report that using the recently proposed Transformer architecture even out-of-the-box outperforms previous neural and non-neural systems for code prediction. We then show that by making the Transformer architecture aware of the syntactic structure of code, we further increase the margin by which a Transformer-based system outperforms previous systems. With this, it outperforms the accuracy of an RNN-based system (similar to Hellendoorn et al. 2018) by 18.3\%, the Deep3 system (Raychev et al 2016) by 14.1\%, and an adaptation of Code2Seq (Alon et al., 2018) for code prediction by 14.4\%. We present in the paper several ways of communicating the code structure to the Transformer, which is fundamentally built for processing sequence data. We provide a comprehensive experimental evaluation of our proposal, along with alternative design choices, on a standard Python dataset, as well as on a Facebook internal Python corpus. Our code and data preparation pipeline will be available in open source

Prediction of Human Trajectory Following a Haptic Robotic Guide Using Recurrent Neural Networks

Social intelligence is an important requirement for enabling robots to collaborate with people. In particular, human path prediction is an essential capability for robots in that it prevents potential collision with a human and allows the robot to safely make larger movements. In this paper, we present a method for predicting the trajectory of a human who follows a haptic robotic guide without using sight, which is valuable for assistive robots that aid the visually impaired. We apply a deep learning method based on recurrent neural networks using multimodal data: (1) human trajectory, (2) movement of the robotic guide, (3) haptic input data measured from the physical interaction between the human and the robot, (4) human depth data. We collected actual human trajectory and multimodal response data through indoor experiments. Our model outperformed the baseline result while using only the robot data with the observed human trajectory, and it shows even better results when using additional haptic and depth data.Comment: 6 pages, Submitted to IEEE World Haptics Conference 201