Multi-time-horizon Solar Forecasting Using Recurrent Neural Network

The non-stationarity characteristic of the solar power renders traditional point forecasting methods to be less useful due to large prediction errors. This results in increased uncertainties in the grid operation, thereby negatively affecting the reliability and increased cost of operation. This research paper proposes a unified architecture for multi-time-horizon predictions for short and long-term solar forecasting using Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN). The paper describes an end-to-end pipeline to implement the architecture along with the methods to test and validate the performance of the prediction model. The results demonstrate that the proposed method based on the unified architecture is effective for multi-horizon solar forecasting and achieves a lower root-mean-squared prediction error compared to the previous best-performing methods which use one model for each time-horizon. The proposed method enables multi-horizon forecasts with real-time inputs, which have a high potential for practical applications in the evolving smart grid.Comment: Accepted at: IEEE Energy Conversion Congress and Exposition (ECCE 2018), 7 pages, 5 figures, code available: sakshi-mishra.github.i

Prediction in Photovoltaic Power by Neural Networks

The ability to forecast the power produced by renewable energy plants in the short and middle term is a key issue to allow a high-level penetration of the distributed generation into the grid infrastructure. Forecasting energy production is mandatory for dispatching and distribution issues, at the transmission system operator level, as well as the electrical distributor and power system operator levels. In this paper, we present three techniques based on neural and fuzzy neural networks, namely the radial basis function, the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system and the higher-order neuro-fuzzy inference system, which are well suited to predict data sequences stemming from real-world applications. The preliminary results concerning the prediction of the power generated by a large-scale photovoltaic plant in Italy confirm the reliability and accuracy of the proposed approaches

The Comparison Study of Short-Term Prediction Methods to Enhance the Model Predictive Controller Applied to Microgrid Energy Management

Electricity load forecasting, optimal power system operation and energy management play key roles that can bring significant operational advantages to microgrids. This paper studies how methods based on time series and neural networks can be used to predict energy demand and production, allowing them to be combined with model predictive control. Comparisons of different prediction methods and different optimum energy distribution scenarios are provided, permitting us to determine when short-term energy prediction models should be used. The proposed prediction models in addition to the model predictive control strategy appear as a promising solution to energy management in microgrids. The controller has the task of performing the management of electricity purchase and sale to the power grid, maximizing the use of renewable energy sources and managing the use of the energy storage system. Simulations were performed with different weather conditions of solar irradiation. The obtained results are encouraging for future practical implementation

Technology for the Future: In-Space Technology Experiments Program, part 2

The purpose of the Office of Aeronautics and Space Technology (OAST) In-Space Technology Experiments Program In-STEP 1988 Workshop was to identify and prioritize technologies that are critical for future national space programs and require validation in the space environment, and review current NASA (In-Reach) and industry/ university (Out-Reach) experiments. A prioritized list of the critical technology needs was developed for the following eight disciplines: structures; environmental effects; power systems and thermal management; fluid management and propulsion systems; automation and robotics; sensors and information systems; in-space systems; and humans in space. This is part two of two parts and contains the critical technology presentations for the eight theme elements and a summary listing of critical space technology needs for each theme

Workshop on Two-Phase Fluid Behavior in a Space Environment

The Workshop was successful in achieving its main objective of identifying a large number of technical issues relating to the design of two-phase systems for space applications. The principal concern expressed was the need for verified analytical tools that will allow an engineer to confidently design a system to a known degree of accuracy. New and improved materials, for such applications as thermal storage and as heat transfer fluids, were also identified as major needs. In addition to these research efforts, a number of specific hardware needs were identified which will require development. These include heat pumps, low weight radiators, advanced heat pipes, stability enhancement devices, high heat flux evaporators, and liquid/vapor separators. Also identified was the need for a centralized source of reliable, up-to-date information on two-phase flow in a space environment

A Survey of the Spacecraft Line-Of-Sight Jitter Problem

Predicting, managing, controlling, and testing spacecraft Line-of-Sight (LoS) jit- ter due to on-board internal disturbance sources is a challenging multi- disciplinary systems engineering problem, especially for those observatories hosting extremely sensitive optical sensor payloads with stringent requirements on allowable LoS jitter. Some specific spacecraft jitter engineering challenges will be introduced and described in this survey paper. Illustrative examples of missions where dynamic interactions have to be addressed to satisfy demanding payload instrument LoS jitter requirements will be provided. Some lessons learned and a set of recommended rules of thumb are also presented to provide guidance for analysts on where to initiate and how to approach a new spacecraft jitter design problem. These experience-based spacecraft jitter lessons learned and rules of thumb are provided in the hope they can be leveraged on new space system development projects to help overcome unfamiliarity with previously identified jitter technical pitfalls and challenges