2,128 research outputs found
Causal Confusion in Imitation Learning
Behavioral cloning reduces policy learning to supervised learning by training
a discriminative model to predict expert actions given observations. Such
discriminative models are non-causal: the training procedure is unaware of the
causal structure of the interaction between the expert and the environment. We
point out that ignoring causality is particularly damaging because of the
distributional shift in imitation learning. In particular, it leads to a
counter-intuitive "causal misidentification" phenomenon: access to more
information can yield worse performance. We investigate how this problem
arises, and propose a solution to combat it through targeted
interventions---either environment interaction or expert queries---to determine
the correct causal model. We show that causal misidentification occurs in
several benchmark control domains as well as realistic driving settings, and
validate our solution against DAgger and other baselines and ablations.Comment: Published at NeurIPS 2019 9 pages, plus references and appendice
Learning Behavior Models for Interpreting and Predicting Traffic Situations
In this thesis, we present Bayesian state estimation and machine learning methods for predicting traffic situations. The cognitive ability to assess situations and behaviors of traffic participants, and to anticipate possible developments is an essential requirement for several applications in the traffic domain, especially for self-driving cars. We present a method for learning behavior models from unlabeled traffic observations and develop improved learning methods for decision trees
Clustering framework to identify traffic conflicts and determine thresholds based on trajectory data
Traffic conflict indicators are essential for evaluating traffic safety and
analyzing trajectory data, especially in the absence of crash data. Previous
studies have used traffic conflict indicators to predict and identify
conflicts, including time-to-collision (TTC), proportion of stopping distance
(PSD), and deceleration rate to avoid a crash (DRAC). However, limited research
is conducted to understand how to set thresholds for these indicators while
accounting for traffic flow characteristics at different traffic states. This
paper proposes a clustering framework for determining surrogate safety measures
(SSM) thresholds and identifying traffic conflicts in different traffic states
using high-resolution trajectory data from the Citysim dataset. In this study,
unsupervised clustering is employed to identify different traffic states and
their transitions under a three-phase theory framework. The resulting clusters
can then be utilized in conjunction with surrogate safety measures (SSM) to
identify traffic conflicts and assess safety performance in each traffic state.
From different perspectives of time, space, and deceleration, we chose three
compatible conflict indicators: TTC, DRAC, and PSD, considering functional
differences and empirical correlations of different SSMs. A total of three
models were chosen by learning these indicators to identify traffic conflict
and non-conflict clusters. It is observed that Mclust outperforms the other
two. The results show that the distribution of traffic conflicts varies
significantly across traffic states. A wide moving jam (J) is found to be the
phase with largest amount of conflicts, followed by synchronized flow phase (S)
and free flow phase(F). Meanwhile, conflict risk and thresholds exhibit similar
levels across transitional states
Boosting insights in insurance tariff plans with tree-based machine learning methods
Pricing actuaries typically operate within the framework of generalized
linear models (GLMs). With the upswing of data analytics, our study puts focus
on machine learning methods to develop full tariff plans built from both the
frequency and severity of claims. We adapt the loss functions used in the
algorithms such that the specific characteristics of insurance data are
carefully incorporated: highly unbalanced count data with excess zeros and
varying exposure on the frequency side combined with scarce, but potentially
long-tailed data on the severity side. A key requirement is the need for
transparent and interpretable pricing models which are easily explainable to
all stakeholders. We therefore focus on machine learning with decision trees:
starting from simple regression trees, we work towards more advanced ensembles
such as random forests and boosted trees. We show how to choose the optimal
tuning parameters for these models in an elaborate cross-validation scheme, we
present visualization tools to obtain insights from the resulting models and
the economic value of these new modeling approaches is evaluated. Boosted trees
outperform the classical GLMs, allowing the insurer to form profitable
portfolios and to guard against potential adverse risk selection
Giving Commands to a Self-Driving Car: How to Deal with Uncertain Situations?
Current technology for autonomous cars primarily focuses on getting the
passenger from point A to B. Nevertheless, it has been shown that passengers
are afraid of taking a ride in self-driving cars. One way to alleviate this
problem is by allowing the passenger to give natural language commands to the
car. However, the car can misunderstand the issued command or the visual
surroundings which could lead to uncertain situations. It is desirable that the
self-driving car detects these situations and interacts with the passenger to
solve them. This paper proposes a model that detects uncertain situations when
a command is given and finds the visual objects causing it. Optionally, a
question generated by the system describing the uncertain objects is included.
We argue that if the car could explain the objects in a human-like way,
passengers could gain more confidence in the car's abilities. Thus, we
investigate how to (1) detect uncertain situations and their underlying causes,
and (2) how to generate clarifying questions for the passenger. When evaluating
on the Talk2Car dataset, we show that the proposed model, \acrfull{pipeline},
improves \gls{m:ambiguous-absolute-increase} in terms of compared to
not using \gls{pipeline}. Furthermore, we designed a referring expression
generator (REG) \acrfull{reg_model} tailored to a self-driving car setting
which yields a relative improvement of \gls{m:meteor-relative} METEOR and
\gls{m:rouge-relative} ROUGE-l compared with state-of-the-art REG models, and
is three times faster.Comment: Accepted in Engineering Applications of Artificial Intelligence
(EAAI) journa
Vehicle Tracking and Motion Estimation Based on Stereo Vision Sequences
In this dissertation, a novel approach for estimating trajectories of road vehicles such as cars, vans, or motorbikes, based on stereo image sequences is presented. Moving objects are detected and reliably tracked in real-time from within a moving car. The resulting information on the pose and motion state of other moving objects with respect to the own vehicle is an essential basis for future driver assistance and safety systems, e.g., for collision prediction. The focus of this contribution is on oncoming traffic, while most existing work in the literature addresses tracking the lead vehicle. The overall approach is generic and scalable to a variety of traffic scenes including inner city, country road, and highway scenarios. A considerable part of this thesis addresses oncoming traffic at urban intersections. The parameters to be estimated include the 3D position and orientation of an object relative to the ego-vehicle, as well as the object's shape, dimension, velocity, acceleration and the rotational velocity (yaw rate). The key idea is to derive these parameters from a set of tracked 3D points on the object's surface, which are registered to a time-consistent object coordinate system, by means of an extended Kalman filter. Combining the rigid 3D point cloud model with the dynamic model of a vehicle is one main contribution of this thesis. Vehicle tracking at intersections requires covering a wide range of different object dynamics, since vehicles can turn quickly. Three different approaches for tracking objects during highly dynamic turn maneuvers up to extreme maneuvers such as skidding are presented and compared. These approaches allow for an online adaptation of the filter parameter values, overcoming manual parameter tuning depending on the dynamics of the tracked object in the scene. This is the second main contribution. Further issues include the introduction of two initialization methods, a robust outlier handling, a probabilistic approach for assigning new points to a tracked object, as well as mid-level fusion of the vision-based approach with a radar sensor. The overall system is systematically evaluated both on simulated and real-world data. The experimental results show the proposed system is able to accurately estimate the object pose and motion parameters in a variety of challenging situations, including night scenes, quick turn maneuvers, and partial occlusions. The limits of the system are also carefully investigated.In dieser Dissertation wird ein Ansatz zur Trajektorienschätzung von Straßenfahrzeugen (PKW, Lieferwagen, Motorräder,...) anhand von Stereo-Bildfolgen vorgestellt. Bewegte Objekte werden in Echtzeit aus einem fahrenden Auto heraus automatisch detektiert, vermessen und deren Bewegungszustand relativ zum eigenen Fahrzeug zuverlässig bestimmt. Die gewonnenen Informationen liefern einen entscheidenden Grundstein für zukünftige Fahrerassistenz- und Sicherheitssysteme im Automobilbereich, beispielsweise zur Kollisionsprädiktion. Während der Großteil der existierenden Literatur das Detektieren und Verfolgen vorausfahrender Fahrzeuge in Autobahnszenarien adressiert, setzt diese Arbeit einen Schwerpunkt auf den Gegenverkehr, speziell an städtischen Kreuzungen. Der Ansatz ist jedoch grundsätzlich generisch und skalierbar für eine Vielzahl an Verkehrssituationen (Innenstadt, Landstraße, Autobahn). Die zu schätzenden Parameter beinhalten die räumliche Lage des anderen Fahrzeugs relativ zum eigenen Fahrzeug, die Objekt-Geschwindigkeit und -Längsbeschleunigung, sowie die Rotationsgeschwindigkeit (Gierrate) des beobachteten Objektes. Zusätzlich werden die Objektabmaße sowie die Objektform rekonstruiert. Die Grundidee ist es, diese Parameter anhand der Transformation von beobachteten 3D Punkten, welche eine ortsfeste Position auf der Objektoberfläche besitzen, mittels eines rekursiven Schätzers (Kalman Filter) zu bestimmen. Ein wesentlicher Beitrag dieser Arbeit liegt in der Kombination des Starrkörpermodells der Punktewolke mit einem Fahrzeugbewegungsmodell. An Kreuzungen können sehr unterschiedliche Dynamiken auftreten, von einer Geradeausfahrt mit konstanter Geschwindigkeit bis hin zum raschen Abbiegen. Um eine manuelle Parameteradaption abhängig von der jeweiligen Szene zu vermeiden, werden drei verschiedene Ansätze zur automatisierten Anpassung der Filterparameter an die vorliegende Situation vorgestellt und verglichen. Dies stellt den zweiten Hauptbeitrag der Arbeit dar. Weitere wichtige Beiträge sind zwei alternative Initialisierungsmethoden, eine robuste Ausreißerbehandlung, ein probabilistischer Ansatz zur Zuordnung neuer Objektpunkte, sowie die Fusion des bildbasierten Verfahrens mit einem Radar-Sensor. Das Gesamtsystem wird im Rahmen dieser Arbeit systematisch anhand von simulierten und realen Straßenverkehrsszenen evaluiert. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass das vorgestellte Verfahren in der Lage ist, die unbekannten Objektparameter auch unter schwierigen Umgebungsbedingungen, beispielsweise bei Nacht, schnellen Abbiegemanövern oder unter Teilverdeckungen, sehr präzise zu schätzen. Die Grenzen des Systems werden ebenfalls sorgfältig untersucht
Doctor of Philosophy
dissertationA safe and secure transportation system is critical to providing protection to those who employ it. Safety is being increasingly demanded within the transportation system and transportation facilities and services will need to adapt to change to provide it. This dissertation provides innovate methodologies to identify current shortcomings and provide theoretic frameworks for enhancing the safety and security of the transportation network. This dissertation is designed to provide multilevel enhanced safety and security within the transportation network by providing methodologies to identify, monitor, and control major hazards associated within the transportation network. The risks specifically addressed are: (1) enhancing nuclear materials sensor networks to better deter and interdict smugglers, (2) use game theory as an interdiction model to design better sensor networks and forensically track smugglers, (3) incorporate safety into regional transportation planning to provide decision-makers a basis for choosing safety design alternatives, and (4) use a simplified car-following model that can incorporate errors to predict situational-dependent safety effects of distracted driving in an ITS infrastructure to deploy live-saving countermeasures
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