Analysis and Forecasting of Trending Topics in Online Media Streams

Among the vast information available on the web, social media streams capture what people currently pay attention to and how they feel about certain topics. Awareness of such trending topics plays a crucial role in multimedia systems such as trend aware recommendation and automatic vocabulary selection for video concept detection systems. Correctly utilizing trending topics requires a better understanding of their various characteristics in different social media streams. To this end, we present the first comprehensive study across three major online and social media streams, Twitter, Google, and Wikipedia, covering thousands of trending topics during an observation period of an entire year. Our results indicate that depending on one's requirements one does not necessarily have to turn to Twitter for information about current events and that some media streams strongly emphasize content of specific categories. As our second key contribution, we further present a novel approach for the challenging task of forecasting the life cycle of trending topics in the very moment they emerge. Our fully automated approach is based on a nearest neighbor forecasting technique exploiting our assumption that semantically similar topics exhibit similar behavior. We demonstrate on a large-scale dataset of Wikipedia page view statistics that forecasts by the proposed approach are about 9-48k views closer to the actual viewing statistics compared to baseline methods and achieve a mean average percentage error of 45-19% for time periods of up to 14 days.Comment: ACM Multimedia 201

Language in Our Time: An Empirical Analysis of Hashtags

Hashtags in online social networks have gained tremendous popularity during the past five years. The resulting large quantity of data has provided a new lens into modern society. Previously, researchers mainly rely on data collected from Twitter to study either a certain type of hashtags or a certain property of hashtags. In this paper, we perform the first large-scale empirical analysis of hashtags shared on Instagram, the major platform for hashtag-sharing. We study hashtags from three different dimensions including the temporal-spatial dimension, the semantic dimension, and the social dimension. Extensive experiments performed on three large-scale datasets with more than 7 million hashtags in total provide a series of interesting observations. First, we show that the temporal patterns of hashtags can be categorized into four different clusters, and people tend to share fewer hashtags at certain places and more hashtags at others. Second, we observe that a non-negligible proportion of hashtags exhibit large semantic displacement. We demonstrate hashtags that are more uniformly shared among users, as quantified by the proposed hashtag entropy, are less prone to semantic displacement. In the end, we propose a bipartite graph embedding model to summarize users' hashtag profiles, and rely on these profiles to perform friendship prediction. Evaluation results show that our approach achieves an effective prediction with AUC (area under the ROC curve) above 0.8 which demonstrates the strong social signals possessed in hashtags.Comment: WWW 201