301 research outputs found

    Geospatial-based data and knowledge driven approaches for burglary crime susceptibility mapping in urban areas

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    The Damansara-Penchala region in Malaysia, is well-known for its high frequency of burglary crime and monetary loss based on the 2011-2016 geospatial burglary data provided by the Polis Diraja Malaysia (PDRM). As such, in order to have a better understanding of the components which influenced the burglary crime incidences in this area, this research aims at developing a geospatial-based burglary crime susceptibility mapping in this urban area. The spatial indicator maps was developed from the burglary data, census data and building footprint data. The initial phase of research focused on the development of the spatial indicators that influence the susceptibility of building towards the burglary crime. The indicators that formed the variable of susceptibility were first enlisted from the literature review. They were later narrowed down to the 18 indicators that were marked as important via the interview sessions with police officers and burglars. The burglary susceptibility mapping was done based on data-driven and knowledge-driven approaches. The data-driven burglary susceptibility maps were developed using bivariate statistics approach of Information Value Modelling (IVM), machine learning approach of Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN). Meanwhile, the knowledge-driven burglary susceptibility maps were developed using Relative Vulnerability Index (RVI) based on the input from experts. In order to obtain the best results, different parameter settings and indicators manipulation were established in the susceptibility modelling process. Both susceptibility modelling approaches were compared and validated with the same independent validation dataset using several accuracy assessment approaches of Area Under Curve - Receiver Operator Characteristic (AUC-ROC curve) and correlation matrix of True Positive and True Negative. The matrix is used to calculate the sensitivity, specificity and accuracy of the models. The performance of ANN and SVM were found to be close to one another with a sensitivity of 91.74% and 88.46%, respectively. However, in terms of specificity, SVM had a higher percentage than ANN at 57.59% and 40.46% respectively. In addition, the error term in classifying high frequency burglary building was also included as part of the measurements in order to decide on the best method. By comparing both classification results with the validation data, it was found that the ANN method has successfully classified buildings with high frequency of burglary cases to the high susceptibility class with no error at all, thus, proving it to be the best method. Meanwhile, the output from IVM had a very moderate percentage of sensitivity and specificity at 54.56% and 46.42% respectively. On the contrary, the knowledge-driven susceptibility map had a high percentage of sensitivity (86.51%) but a very low percentage of specificity (16.4%) which making it the least accurate model as it was not able to classify the high susceptible area correctly as compared to other modelling approaches. In conclusion, the results have indicated that the 18 indicators used in this research could be employed to successfully map the burglary susceptibility in the study area. Furthermore, it was also found that residential areas within the vicinity of Brickfields, Bangsar Baru, Hartamas and Bukit Pantai are consistent to be classified as high susceptible areas, meanwhile areas of Jalan Duta and Taman Tunku are both identified as the least susceptible areas across the modelling methods

    The Cybercrime Triangle

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    Information technology can increase the convergence of three dimensions of the crime triangle due to the spatial and temporal confluence in the virtual world. In other words, its advancement can lead to facilitating criminals with more chances to commit a crime against suitable targets living in different real-world time zones without temporal and spatial orders. However, within this mechanism, cybercrime can be discouraged “…if the cyber-adversary is handled, the target/victim is guarded, or the place is effectively managed” (Wilcox & Cullen, 2018, p. 134). In fact, Madensen and Eck (2013) assert that only one effective controller is enough to prevent a crime. Given this condition of the crime triangle, it must be noted that each of these components (the offender, the target, and the place) or controllers (i.e., handler, guardian, and manager) can play a pivotal role in reducing cybercrime. To date, scholars and professionals have analyzed the phenomenon of cybercrime and developed cybercrime prevention strategies relying predominantly on cybercrime victimization (suitable targets) but have yet to utilize the broader framework of the crime triangle commonly used in the analysis and prevention of crime. More specifically, the dimensions of cybercrime offenders, places, or controllers have been absent in prior scientific research and in guiding the establishment and examination of cybercrime prevention strategies. Given this gap, much remains to be known as to how these conceptual entities operate in the virtual realm and whether they share similarities with what we know about other crimes in the physical world. Thus, the purpose of this study is to extend the application of the “Crime Triangle,” a derivative of Routine Activity Theory, to crime events in the digital realm to provide scholars, practitioners, and policy makers a more complete lens to improve understanding and prevention of cybercrime incidents. In other words, this dissertation will endeavor to devise a comprehensive framework for our society to use to form cybersecurity policies to implement a secure and stable digital environment that supports continued economic growth as well as national security. The findings of this study suggest that both criminological and technical perspectives are crucial in comprehending cybercrime incidents. This dissertation attempts to independently explore these three components in order to portray the characteristics of cybercriminals, cybercrime victims, and place management. Specifically, this study first explores the characteristics of cybercriminals via a criminal profiling method primarily using court criminal record documents (indictments/complaints) provided by the FIU law library website. Second, the associations between cybercrime victims, digital capable guardianship, perceived risks of cybercrime, and online activity are examined using Eurobarometer survey data. Third, the associations between place management activities and cybercrime prevention are examined using “Phishing Campaign” and “Cybersecurity Awareness Training Program” data derived from FIU’s Division of Information Technology

    Criminal Futures

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    This book explores how predictive policing transforms police work. Police departments around the world have started to use data-driven applications to produce crime forecasts and intervene into the future through targeted prevention measures. Based on three years of field research in Germany and Switzerland, this book provides a theoretically sophisticated and empirically detailed account of how the police produce and act upon criminal futures as part of their everyday work practices. The authors argue that predictive policing must not be analyzed as an isolated technological artifact, but as part of a larger sociotechnical system that is embedded in organizational structures and occupational cultures. The book highlights how, for crime prediction software to come to matter and play a role in more efficient and targeted police work, several translation processes are needed to align human and nonhuman actors across different divisions of police work. Police work is a key function for the production and maintenance of public order, but it can also discriminate, exclude, and violate civil liberties and human rights. When criminal futures come into being in the form of algorithmically produced risk estimates, this can have wide-ranging consequences. Building on empirical findings, the book presents a number of practical recommendations for the prudent use of algorithmic analysis tools in police work that will speak to the protection of civil liberties and human rights as much as they will speak to the professional needs of police organizations. An accessible and compelling read, this book will appeal to students and scholars of criminology, sociology, and cultural studies as well as to police practitioners and civil liberties advocates, in addition to all those who are interested in how to implement reasonable forms of data-driven policing

    Victim evaluations of face-to-face restorative justice conferences: A quasi-experimental analysis

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    One major goal of face-to-face restorative justice (RJ) is to help heal the psychological harm suffered by crime victims (Braithwaite, 2002). Substantial evidence from randomized controlled trials (RCTs) has shown that this can be accomplished (Strang, 2002) and more trials are underway (Sherman & Strang, 2004). These outcomes are even more clearly, if less rigorously, demonstrated through retrospective interviews of victims about their feelings before and after RJ took place. We review the responses of victims (N = 210) who participated in trials in Canberra (Australia) and in London, Thames Valley, and Northumbria (UK). Despite substantial variations in offense types, social contexts, nation and race, before-after changes revealed by qualitative and quantitative data are all in the same beneficial direction

    Patterns of residential burglary: transferring findings from Western studies to societies with different socio-economic structure

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    This thesis is an attempt to determine the transferability of the findings of some Western studies carried out on Residential burglary, and the applicability of the main methods used for burglary reduction, to societies with different socio-economic structure, in this case Tehran, the capital city of Iran. The thesis will look at patterns of residential burglary found in Tehran and those found by European and American research studies to outline the similarities and differences between them to decide upon the suitability of `opportunity' theories, and ultimately situational preventive measures implemented in some Western countries for the prevention or reduction of burglary in Tehran. Following the failure of social and psychological methods in reducing burglary levels, situational crime prevention has received a great attention in some Western countries during the last few decades. Situational crime prevention policies are aimed at the reduction of crime levels by reducing crime opportunities, through i. e. target-hardening techniques, changes in the management, design, and manipulation of the immediate environment in which crime occurs, which lead to an increase in the risks perceived by a wide range of offenders, also by reducing the benefits of crime. A large proportion of Western criminological studies have carried out their research relying on the assumption which suggests that crime opportunities encourage crime, and that eliminating or blocking crime opportunities will result in the reduction of a large number of residential burglaries. Opportunity theory has adopted the `rationality' and the `routine activity' models of crime to explain when, where, and how burglaries occur. It is assumed that offenders are rational in the selection of crime opportunities that are associated with higher rewards and lower risks of detection. It is also suggested that the routine activities of victims, as well as offenders, play a major role in selecting crime targets that present better opportunities for crime. The main aim of this research is to determine the suitability of situational measures and theories underlying such research to other societies such as Tehran. In order to do so, patterns of residential burglary in Tehran have been examined. An attempt has been made to identify the factors influencing patterns of burglary, and to produce a better understanding of how burglary occurs in Tehran. A comparison between the findings from Tehran and those from Western studies is expected to demonstrate whether the theoretical framework underlying Western studies is capable of explaining burglary patterns in Tehran, and that preventive policies implemented in Western countries are suited to controlling of burglary levels in Tehran. It is hoped that the findings from the current research provide a basis for appropriate crime prevention policies and for future research

    Povezivanje krivičnih djela: Prednosti i ograničenja primjene bihevioralne analize u kriminalističkom istraživanju

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    Rad razmatra kriminalističku djelatnost povezivanja krivičnih djela sa istim učinocem ili učiniocima, kao jedno od ključnih pitanja koja se mogu javiti u okviru kriminalističkog istraživanja. Ovaj poseban oblik bihevioralne analize implicira utvrđivanje bihevioralne sličnosti ispoljene prilikom izvršenja serije krivičnih djela, koja se pri tom razlikuje od ponašanja ispoljenog prilikom izvršenja drugih krivičnih djela iste vrste. Shodno tome, u fokusu rada su dva temeljna principa na kojima se zasniva ovaj oblik bihevioralne analize: (1) bihevioralna konzistentnost i (2) bihevioralna distinktivnost. S druge strane, uzimajući u obzir opće kritike upućene pouzdanosti primjene bihevioralnih analiza u kriminalističkom istraživanju, radom su obuhvaćena i određena teorijska stanovišta koja ukazuju na to da su empirijska istraživanja samo djelimično potvrdila pomenute principe. Ako se ima u vidu da ovo područje kriminalističke teorije i prakse još uvijek nije dovoljno elaborirano u akademskim okvirima, posebice na regionalnom nivou, cilj rada je ukazati na prednosti i ograničenja primjene ovog oblika bihevioralne analize u kriminalističkom istraživanju. Dodatno, radom se želi ukazati na potrebu za multidisciplinarnim istraživanjem ove problematike, te, shodno tome, naučne spoznaje prezentirane u ovom radu trebaju poslužiti kao inspiracija za buduća naučna istraživanja koja će razmatrati primjenu metoda povezivanja krivičnih djela u okviru kriminalističkog istraživanja

    Povezivanje krivičnih djela: Prednosti i ograničenja primjene bihevioralne analize u kriminalističkom istraživanju

    Get PDF
    Rad razmatra kriminalističku djelatnost povezivanja krivičnih djela sa istim učinocem ili učiniocima, kao jedno od ključnih pitanja koja se mogu javiti u okviru kriminalističkog istraživanja. Ovaj poseban oblik bihevioralne analize implicira utvrđivanje bihevioralne sličnosti ispoljene prilikom izvršenja serije krivičnih djela, koja se pri tom razlikuje od ponašanja ispoljenog prilikom izvršenja drugih krivičnih djela iste vrste. Shodno tome, u fokusu rada su dva temeljna principa na kojima se zasniva ovaj oblik bihevioralne analize: (1) bihevioralna konzistentnost i (2) bihevioralna distinktivnost. S druge strane, uzimajući u obzir opće kritike upućene pouzdanosti primjene bihevioralnih analiza u kriminalističkom istraživanju, radom su obuhvaćena i određena teorijska stanovišta koja ukazuju na to da su empirijska istraživanja samo djelimično potvrdila pomenute principe. Ako se ima u vidu da ovo područje kriminalističke teorije i prakse još uvijek nije dovoljno elaborirano u akademskim okvirima, posebice na regionalnom nivou, cilj rada je ukazati na prednosti i ograničenja primjene ovog oblika bihevioralne analize u kriminalističkom istraživanju. Dodatno, radom se želi ukazati na potrebu za multidisciplinarnim istraživanjem ove problematike, te, shodno tome, naučne spoznaje prezentirane u ovom radu trebaju poslužiti kao inspiracija za buduća naučna istraživanja koja će razmatrati primjenu metoda povezivanja krivičnih djela u okviru kriminalističkog istraživanja
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