36,989 research outputs found
Mobile Crowd Location Prediction with Hybrid Features using Ensemble Learning
With the explosive growth of location-based service on mobile devices, predicting users’ future locations and trajectories is of increasing importance to support proactive information services. In this paper, we model this problem as a supervised learning task and propose to use ensemble learning methods with hybrid features to solve it. We characterize the properties of users’ visited locations and movement patterns and then extract feature types (temporal, spatial, and system) to quantify the correlation between locations and features. Finally, we apply ensemble methods to predict users’ future locations with extracted features. Moreover, we design an adaptive Markov Chain model to predict users’ trajectories between two locations. To evaluate the system performance, we use a real-life dataset from the Nokia Mobile Data Challenge. Experiment results unveil interesting findings: (1) For individual predictors, Bayes Networks outperform all others when data quality is good, while J48 delivers the best results when data quality is bad; (2) Ensemble predictors outperform individual predictors in general under all conditions; and (3) Ensemble predictor performance depends on the user movement patterns
Mobile Crowd Location Prediction with Hybrid Features using Ensemble Learning
With the explosive growth of location-based service on mobile devices, predicting users’ future locations and trajectories is of increasing importance to support proactive information services. In this paper, we model this problem as a supervised learning task and propose to use ensemble learning methods with hybrid features to solve it. We characterize the properties of users’ visited locations and movement patterns and then extract feature types (temporal, spatial, and system) to quantify the correlation between locations and features. Finally, we apply ensemble methods to predict users’ future locations with extracted features. Moreover, we design an adaptive Markov Chain model to predict users’ trajectories between two locations. To evaluate the system performance, we use a real-life dataset from the Nokia Mobile Data Challenge. Experiment results unveil interesting findings: (1) For individual predictors, Bayes Networks outperform all others when data quality is good, while J48 delivers the best results when data quality is bad; (2) Ensemble predictors outperform individual predictors in general under all conditions; and (3) Ensemble predictor performance depends on the user movement patterns
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What Will You Do for the Rest of the Day?
Understanding and predicting human mobility is vital to a large number of applications, ranging from recommendations to safety and urban service planning. In some travel applications, the ability to accurately predict the user's future trajectory is vital for delivering high quality of service. The accurate prediction of detailed trajectories would empower location-based service providers with the ability to deliver more precise recommendations to users. Existing work on human mobility prediction has mainly focused on the prediction of the next location (or the set of locations) visited by the user, rather than on the prediction of the continuous trajectory (sequences of further locations and the corresponding arrival and departure times). Furthermore, existing approaches often return predicted locations as regions with coarse granularity rather than geographical coordinates, which limits the practicality of the prediction.
In this paper, we introduce a novel trajectory prediction problem: given historical data and a user's initial trajectory in the morning, can we predict the user's full trajectory later in the day (e.g. the afternoon trajectory)? The predicted continuous trajectory includes the sequence of future locations, the stay times, and the departure times. We first conduct a comprehensive analysis about the relationship between morning trajectories and the corresponding afternoon trajectories, and found there is a positive correlation between them. Our proposed method combines similarity metrics over the extracted temporal sequences of locations to estimate similar informative segments across user trajectories.
Our evaluation shows results on both labeled and geographical trajectories with a prediction error reduced by 10-35% in comparison to the baselines. This improvement has the potential to enable precise location services, raising usefulness to users to unprecedented levels. We also present empirical evaluations with Markov model and Long Short Term Memory (LSTM), a state-of-the-art Recurrent Neural Network model. Our proposed method is shown to be more effective when smaller number of samples are used and is exponentially more efficient than LSTM.</jats:p
Modeling the scaling properties of human mobility
While the fat tailed jump size and the waiting time distributions
characterizing individual human trajectories strongly suggest the relevance of
the continuous time random walk (CTRW) models of human mobility, no one
seriously believes that human traces are truly random. Given the importance of
human mobility, from epidemic modeling to traffic prediction and urban
planning, we need quantitative models that can account for the statistical
characteristics of individual human trajectories. Here we use empirical data on
human mobility, captured by mobile phone traces, to show that the predictions
of the CTRW models are in systematic conflict with the empirical results. We
introduce two principles that govern human trajectories, allowing us to build a
statistically self-consistent microscopic model for individual human mobility.
The model not only accounts for the empirically observed scaling laws but also
allows us to analytically predict most of the pertinent scaling exponents
Context Trees: Augmenting Geospatial Trajectories with Context
Exposing latent knowledge in geospatial trajectories has the potential to
provide a better understanding of the movements of individuals and groups.
Motivated by such a desire, this work presents the context tree, a new
hierarchical data structure that summarises the context behind user actions in
a single model. We propose a method for context tree construction that augments
geospatial trajectories with land usage data to identify such contexts. Through
evaluation of the construction method and analysis of the properties of
generated context trees, we demonstrate the foundation for understanding and
modelling behaviour afforded. Summarising user contexts into a single data
structure gives easy access to information that would otherwise remain latent,
providing the basis for better understanding and predicting the actions and
behaviours of individuals and groups. Finally, we also present a method for
pruning context trees, for use in applications where it is desirable to reduce
the size of the tree while retaining useful information
Creating Full Individual-level Location Timelines from Sparse Social Media Data
In many domain applications, a continuous timeline of human locations is
critical; for example for understanding possible locations where a disease may
spread, or the flow of traffic. While data sources such as GPS trackers or Call
Data Records are temporally-rich, they are expensive, often not publicly
available or garnered only in select locations, restricting their wide use.
Conversely, geo-located social media data are publicly and freely available,
but present challenges especially for full timeline inference due to their
sparse nature. We propose a stochastic framework, Intermediate Location
Computing (ILC) which uses prior knowledge about human mobility patterns to
predict every missing location from an individual's social media timeline. We
compare ILC with a state-of-the-art RNN baseline as well as methods that are
optimized for next-location prediction only. For three major cities, ILC
predicts the top 1 location for all missing locations in a timeline, at 1 and
2-hour resolution, with up to 77.2% accuracy (up to 6% better accuracy than all
compared methods). Specifically, ILC also outperforms the RNN in settings of
low data; both cases of very small number of users (under 50), as well as
settings with more users, but with sparser timelines. In general, the RNN model
needs a higher number of users to achieve the same performance as ILC. Overall,
this work illustrates the tradeoff between prior knowledge of heuristics and
more data, for an important societal problem of filling in entire timelines
using freely available, but sparse social media data.Comment: 10 pages, 8 figures, 2 table
Cluster-Aided Mobility Predictions
Predicting the future location of users in wireless net- works has numerous
applications, and can help service providers to improve the quality of service
perceived by their clients. The location predictors proposed so far estimate
the next location of a specific user by inspecting the past individual
trajectories of this user. As a consequence, when the training data collected
for a given user is limited, the resulting prediction is inaccurate. In this
paper, we develop cluster-aided predictors that exploit past trajectories
collected from all users to predict the next location of a given user. These
predictors rely on clustering techniques and extract from the training data
similarities among the mobility patterns of the various users to improve the
prediction accuracy. Specifically, we present CAMP (Cluster-Aided Mobility
Predictor), a cluster-aided predictor whose design is based on recent
non-parametric bayesian statistical tools. CAMP is robust and adaptive in the
sense that it exploits similarities in users' mobility only if such
similarities are really present in the training data. We analytically prove the
consistency of the predictions provided by CAMP, and investigate its
performance using two large-scale datasets. CAMP significantly outperforms
existing predictors, and in particular those that only exploit individual past
trajectories
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