The Challenge of Machine Learning in Space Weather Nowcasting and Forecasting

The numerous recent breakthroughs in machine learning (ML) make imperative to carefully ponder how the scientific community can benefit from a technology that, although not necessarily new, is today living its golden age. This Grand Challenge review paper is focused on the present and future role of machine learning in space weather. The purpose is twofold. On one hand, we will discuss previous works that use ML for space weather forecasting, focusing in particular on the few areas that have seen most activity: the forecasting of geomagnetic indices, of relativistic electrons at geosynchronous orbits, of solar flares occurrence, of coronal mass ejection propagation time, and of solar wind speed. On the other hand, this paper serves as a gentle introduction to the field of machine learning tailored to the space weather community and as a pointer to a number of open challenges that we believe the community should undertake in the next decade. The recurring themes throughout the review are the need to shift our forecasting paradigm to a probabilistic approach focused on the reliable assessment of uncertainties, and the combination of physics-based and machine learning approaches, known as gray-box.Comment: under revie

Quasi-classical Gravity effect on neutrino oscillations in a gravitational field of an heavy astrophysical object

In the framework of quantum field theory, a graviton interacts locally with a quantum state having definite mass, i.e. the gravitational mass eigenstate, while a weak boson interacts with a state having definite flavor, i.e. the flavor eigenstate. An interaction of a neutrino with an energetic graviton may trigger the collapse of the neutrino to a definite mass eigenstate with probability expressed in terms of PMNS mixing matrix elements. Thus, gravitons would induce quantum decoherence of a coherent neutrino flavor state similarly to how weak bosons induce quantum decoherence of a neutrino in a definite mass state. We demonstrate that such an essentially quantum gravity effect may have strong consequences for neutrino oscillation phenomena in astrophysics due to relatively large scattering cross sections of relativistic neutrinos undergoing large-angle radiation of energetic gravitons in gravitational field of a classical massive source (i.e. the quasi-classical case of gravitational Bethe-Heitler scattering). This graviton-induced {\it decoherence} is compared to {\it decoherence} due to propagation in the presence of the Earth matter effect. Based on this study, we propose a new technique for the indirect detection of energetic gravitons by measuring the flavor composition of astrophysical neutrinos.Comment: 25 pages, 4 figures, minor revision with clarifications, main conclusions are unchange

Quantum Color Transparency and Nuclear Filtering

Color transparency is the proposal that under certain circumstances the strong interactions can be reduced in magnitude. We give a comprehensive review of the physics, which hinges on the interface of perturbative QCD with non--perturbative strong interactions. Color transparency is complementary to {\it nuclear filtering}, which is the conversion of quark wave functions in hadrons to small transverse space dimensions by interaction with a nuclear medium. We review current approaches, including pictures based on modeling the time evolution of hadronic wave--packets as well as the use of light cone matrix elements. Spin plays an intrinsic role in testing and understanding the physics and is discussed at length. We emphasize the use of data analysis procedures which have minimal model dependence. We also review existing experimental data and the experimental program planned at various facilities. The subject has strong scientific complementarity and potential to make progress in exploring hadron physics at current and future facilities.Comment: 131 pages, review article in LaTeX to appear in Physics Reports, no postscipt figures, approximately 30 figures available from Ralston on reques