Curbing Dropout: Predictive Analytics at the University of Porto

This study explores data mining techniques for predicting student dropout in higher education. The research compares different methodological approaches, including alternative algorithms and variations in model specifications. Additionally, we examine the impact of employing either a single model for all university programs or separate models per program. The performance of models with students grouped according to their position on the program study plan was also tested. The training datasets were explored with varying time series lengths (2, 4, 6, and 8 years) and the experiments use academic data from the University of Porto, spanning the academic years from 2012 to 2022. The algorithm that yielded the best results was XGBoost. The best predictions were obtained with models trained with two years of data, both with separate models for each program and with a single model. The findings highlight the potential of data mining approaches in predicting student dropout, offering valuable insights for higher education institutions aiming to improve student retention and success

The Investigation of Student Dropout Prediction Model in Thai Higher Education Using Educational Data Mining: A Case Study of Faculty of Science, Prince of Songkla Uni-versity

The student’s retention rate is one of the challenging issues that representing the quality of the university. A high dropout rate of students affects not only the reputation of the university but also the students’ career in the future. Therefore, there is a need of student dropout analysis in order to improve the academic plan and management to reduce students drop out from the university as well as to  enhance the quality of the higher education system. Data mining technique provides powerful methods for analysis and the prediction the dropout. This paper proposes a model for predicting students’ dropout using the dataset from the representative of the largest public university in the Southen part of Thailand. In this study, data from Faculty of Science, Prince of Songkla University was collected from academic year of 2013 to 2017. The experiment result shows that JRip rule induction is the best technique to generate a prediction model receiving the highest accuracy value of 77.30%. The results highlight the potential prediction model that can be used to detect the early state of dropping out of the student which the university can provide supporting program to improve the student retention rat

Predictors of University Attrition: Looking for an Equitable and Sustainable Higher Education

The failure and dropout of university studies are issues that worry all nations due to the personal, social, and economic costs that this they entail. Because the dropout phenomenon is complex and involves numerous factors, to reverse it would involve a comprehensive approach through interventions aimed at the factors identified as key in the decision to drop out. Therefore, the main objective of this work is to determine the profile of students who enter the EPN (STEM higher-education institution) to analyze the characteristics that differentiate students who drop out early in their career and those who stay in school. A sample of 624 students who accessed the EPN leveling course (a compulsory course at the beginning of their studies) participated in the study. A total of 26.6% of the participants were women. A total of 50.7% of the participants passed the course. Data referring to social, economic, and academic variables were analyzed. Comparison techniques, as well as artificial neural networks, were used to compare characteristic profiles of students who passed the leveling course and those who dropped out. The results showed significant differences between the profiles of the students who passed and those who dropped out with regard to the variables related to previous academic performance and motivational and attributional aspects. The artificial neural networks corroborated the importance of these variables in predicting dropout. In this research, the key variables predicting whether a student continues or leaves higher education are revealed, allowing the identification of students at possible risk of dropping out and thus promoting initiatives to provide adequate academic support and improve student retention.This research was supported by National Secretariat of Higher Education, Science and Technology, (SENESCYT;PIC-18-INE-EPN-002)

Survival Analysis Approach For Early Prediction Of Student Dropout

Retention of students at colleges and universities has long been a concern for educators for many decades. The consequences of student attrition are significant for both students, academic staffs and the overall institution. Thus, increasing student retention is a long term goal of any academic institution. The most vulnerable students at all institutions of higher education are the freshman students, who are at the highest risk of dropping out at the beginning of their study. Consequently, the early identification of at-risk students is a crucial task that needs to be addressed precisely. In this thesis, we develop a framework for early prediction of student success using survival analysis approach. We propose time-dependent Cox (TD-Cox), which is based on the Cox proportional hazard regression model and also captures time-varying factors to address the challenge of predicting dropout students as well as the semester that the dropout will occur, to enable proactive interventions. This is critical in student retention problem because not only correctly classifying whether student is going to dropout is important but also when this is going to happen is crucial to investigate. We evaluate our method on real student data collected at Wayne State University. The results show that the proposed Cox-based framework can predict the student dropout and the semester of dropout with high accuracy and precision compared to the other alternative state-of-the-art methods