45,162 research outputs found
Predicting stock market movements using network science: An information theoretic approach
A stock market is considered as one of the highly complex systems, which
consists of many components whose prices move up and down without having a
clear pattern. The complex nature of a stock market challenges us on making a
reliable prediction of its future movements. In this paper, we aim at building
a new method to forecast the future movements of Standard & Poor's 500 Index
(S&P 500) by constructing time-series complex networks of S&P 500 underlying
companies by connecting them with links whose weights are given by the mutual
information of 60-minute price movements of the pairs of the companies with the
consecutive 5,340 minutes price records. We showed that the changes in the
strength distributions of the networks provide an important information on the
network's future movements. We built several metrics using the strength
distributions and network measurements such as centrality, and we combined the
best two predictors by performing a linear combination. We found that the
combined predictor and the changes in S&P 500 show a quadratic relationship,
and it allows us to predict the amplitude of the one step future change in S&P
500. The result showed significant fluctuations in S&P 500 Index when the
combined predictor was high. In terms of making the actual index predictions,
we built ARIMA models. We found that adding the network measurements into the
ARIMA models improves the model accuracy. These findings are useful for
financial market policy makers as an indicator based on which they can
interfere with the markets before the markets make a drastic change, and for
quantitative investors to improve their forecasting models.Comment: 13 pages, 7 figures, 3 table
Predicting the Effects of News Sentiments on the Stock Market
Stock market forecasting is very important in the planning of business
activities. Stock price prediction has attracted many researchers in multiple
disciplines including computer science, statistics, economics, finance, and
operations research. Recent studies have shown that the vast amount of online
information in the public domain such as Wikipedia usage pattern, news stories
from the mainstream media, and social media discussions can have an observable
effect on investors opinions towards financial markets. The reliability of the
computational models on stock market prediction is important as it is very
sensitive to the economy and can directly lead to financial loss. In this
paper, we retrieved, extracted, and analyzed the effects of news sentiments on
the stock market. Our main contributions include the development of a sentiment
analysis dictionary for the financial sector, the development of a
dictionary-based sentiment analysis model, and the evaluation of the model for
gauging the effects of news sentiments on stocks for the pharmaceutical market.
Using only news sentiments, we achieved a directional accuracy of 70.59% in
predicting the trends in short-term stock price movement.Comment: 4 page
A Novel Distributed Representation of News (DRNews) for Stock Market Predictions
In this study, a novel Distributed Representation of News (DRNews) model is
developed and applied in deep learning-based stock market predictions. With the
merit of integrating contextual information and cross-documental knowledge, the
DRNews model creates news vectors that describe both the semantic information
and potential linkages among news events through an attributed news network.
Two stock market prediction tasks, namely the short-term stock movement
prediction and stock crises early warning, are implemented in the framework of
the attention-based Long Short Term-Memory (LSTM) network. It is suggested that
DRNews substantially enhances the results of both tasks comparing with five
baselines of news embedding models. Further, the attention mechanism suggests
that short-term stock trend and stock market crises both receive influences
from daily news with the former demonstrates more critical responses on the
information related to the stock market {\em per se}, whilst the latter draws
more concerns on the banking sector and economic policies.Comment: 25 page
Sentiment Analysis of Twitter Data for Predicting Stock Market Movements
Predicting stock market movements is a well-known problem of interest.
Now-a-days social media is perfectly representing the public sentiment and
opinion about current events. Especially, twitter has attracted a lot of
attention from researchers for studying the public sentiments. Stock market
prediction on the basis of public sentiments expressed on twitter has been an
intriguing field of research. Previous studies have concluded that the
aggregate public mood collected from twitter may well be correlated with Dow
Jones Industrial Average Index (DJIA). The thesis of this work is to observe
how well the changes in stock prices of a company, the rises and falls, are
correlated with the public opinions being expressed in tweets about that
company. Understanding author's opinion from a piece of text is the objective
of sentiment analysis. The present paper have employed two different textual
representations, Word2vec and N-gram, for analyzing the public sentiments in
tweets. In this paper, we have applied sentiment analysis and supervised
machine learning principles to the tweets extracted from twitter and analyze
the correlation between stock market movements of a company and sentiments in
tweets. In an elaborate way, positive news and tweets in social media about a
company would definitely encourage people to invest in the stocks of that
company and as a result the stock price of that company would increase. At the
end of the paper, it is shown that a strong correlation exists between the rise
and falls in stock prices with the public sentiments in tweets.Comment: 6 pages 4 figures Conference Pape
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