Comments on 'Evolutionary neural network modelling for software cumulative failure time prediction' by Liang Tian and Afzel Noore [Reliability Engineering and System Safety 87 (2005) 45-51]

This paper [Tian L, Noore A. Evolutionary neural network modelling for software cumulative failure time prediction. Reliab Eng Syst Saf 2005; 87:45–51] purports to present a useful means of predicting the cumulative failure time function for software reliability growth. In fact, the nature of the ‘prediction’ is too simplistic to be of use. Furthermore, the authors' claims for the accuracy of the predictions appear to be without value

The determination of measures of software reliability

Measurement of software reliability was carried out during the development of data base software for a multi-sensor tracking system. The failure ratio and failure rate were found to be consistent measures. Trend lines could be established from these measurements that provide good visualization of the progress on the job as a whole as well as on individual modules. Over one-half of the observed failures were due to factors associated with the individual run submission rather than with the code proper. Possible application of these findings for line management, project managers, functional management, and regulatory agencies is discussed. Steps for simplifying the measurement process and for use of these data in predicting operational software reliability are outlined

Reliability measurement during software development

During the development of data base software for a multi-sensor tracking system, reliability was measured. The failure ratio and failure rate were found to be consistent measures. Trend lines were established from these measurements that provided good visualization of the progress on the job as a whole as well as on individual modules. Over one-half of the observed failures were due to factors associated with the individual run submission rather than with the code proper. Possible application of these findings for line management, project managers, functional management, and regulatory agencies is discussed. Steps for simplifying the measurement process and for use of these data in predicting operational software reliability are outlined

Software Reliability Prediction using Correlation Constrained Multi-Objective Evolutionary Optimization Algorithm

Software reliability frameworks are extremely effective for estimating the probability of software failure over time. Numerous approaches for predicting software dependability were presented, but neither of those has shown to be effective. Predicting the number of software faults throughout the research and testing phases is a serious problem. As there are several software metrics such as object-oriented design metrics, public and private attributes, methods, previous bug metrics, and software change metrics. Many researchers have identified and performed predictions of software reliability on these metrics. But none of them contributed to identifying relations among these metrics and exploring the most optimal metrics. Therefore, this paper proposed a correlation- constrained multi-objective evolutionary optimization algorithm (CCMOEO) for software reliability prediction. CCMOEO is an effective optimization approach for estimating the variables of popular growth models which consists of reliability. To obtain the highest classification effectiveness, the suggested CCMOEO approach overcomes modeling uncertainties by integrating various metrics with multiple objective functions. The hypothesized models were formulated using evaluation results on five distinct datasets in this research. The prediction was evaluated on seven different machine learning algorithms i.e., linear support vector machine (LSVM), radial support vector machine (RSVM), decision tree, random forest, gradient boosting, k-nearest neighbor, and linear regression. The result analysis shows that random forest achieved better performance

Advanced analytics for transformer asset management

Power transformers are one of the most crucial components of any power system network. A new asset management software called APM Edge, based on the reliability centred maintenance (RCM) methodology for the fleet-wide assessment of power transformers that utilises the principle of fault tree analysis is now available. This analytical software is an expert system that incorporates a probabilistic model which always assigns a risk factor to any given transformer – both for longterm reliability and short-term functionality. This paper presents a case study on the utilisation of this expert system and analytical software on a 25 MVA transformer which helped in: • DGA data quality identification • Predicting future dissolved gas trends • Predicting when the DGA abnormal levels would be reached • Time available before the shutdown • Determining what investigations are required

Commercialization of NESSUS: Status

A plan was initiated in 1988 to commercialize the Numerical Evaluation of Stochastic Structures Under Stress (NESSUS) probabilistic structural analysis software. The goal of the on-going commercialization effort is to begin the transfer of Probabilistic Structural Analysis Method (PSAM) developed technology into industry and to develop additional funding resources in the general area of structural reliability. The commercialization effort is summarized. The SwRI NESSUS Software System is a general purpose probabilistic finite element computer program using state of the art methods for predicting stochastic structural response due to random loads, material properties, part geometry, and boundary conditions. NESSUS can be used to assess structural reliability, to compute probability of failure, to rank the input random variables by importance, and to provide a more cost effective design than traditional methods. The goal is to develop a general probabilistic structural analysis methodology to assist in the certification of critical components in the next generation Space Shuttle Main Engine

Categorizing and predicting reopened bug reports to improve software reliability

Software maintenance takes two thirds of the life cycle of the project. Bug fixes are an important part of software maintenance. Bugs are tracked using online tools like Bugzilla. It has been noted that around 10% of fixes are buggy fixes. Many bugs are documented as fixed when they are not actually fixed, thus reducing the reliability of the software. The overlooked bugs are critical as they take more resources to fix when discovered, and since they are not documented, the reality is that defect are still present and reduce reliability of software. There have been very few studies in understanding these bugs. The best way to understand these bugs is to mine software repositories. To generalize findings we need a large number of bug information and a wide category of software projects. To solve the problem, a web crawler collected around a million bug reports from online repositories, and extracted important attributes of the bug reports. We selected four algorithms: Bayesian network, NaiveBayes, C4.5 decision tree, and Alternating decision tree. We achieved a decent amount of accuracy in predicting reopened bugs across a wide range of projects. Using AdaBoost, we analyzed the most important factors responsible for the bugs and categorized them in three categories of reputation of committer, complex units, and insufficient knowledge of defect