Evaluation of a temporal causal model for predicting the mood of clients in an online therapy

Background Self-reported client assessments during online treatments enable the development of statistical models for the prediction of client improvement and symptom development. Evaluation of these models is mandatory to ensure their validity. Methods For this purpose, we suggest besides a model evaluation based on study data the use of a simulation analysis. The simulation analysis provides insight into the model performance and enables to analyse reasons for a low predictive accuracy. In this study, we evaluate a temporal causal model (TCM) and show that it does not provide reliable predictions of clients' future mood levels. Results Based on the simulation analysis we investigate the potential reasons for the low predictive performance, for example, noisy measurements and sampling frequency. We conclude that the analysed TCM in its current form is not sufficient to describe the underlying psychological processes. Conclusions The results demonstrate the importance of model evaluation and the benefit of a simulation analysis. The current manuscript provides practical guidance for conducting model evaluation including simulation analysis

Behavioural pattern identification and prediction in intelligent environments

In this paper, the application of soft computing techniques in prediction of an occupant's behaviour in an inhabited intelligent environment is addressed. In this research, daily activities of elderly people who live in their own homes suffering from dementia are studied. Occupancy sensors are used to extract the movement patterns of the occupant. The occupancy data is then converted into temporal sequences of activities which are eventually used to predict the occupant behaviour. To build the prediction model, different dynamic recurrent neural networks are investigated. Recurrent neural networks have shown a great ability in finding the temporal relationships of input patterns. The experimental results show that non-linear autoregressive network with exogenous inputs model correctly extracts the long term prediction patterns of the occupant and outperformed the Elman network. The results presented here are validated using data generated from a simulator and real environments

Triaging Content Severity in Online Mental Health Forums

Mental health forums are online communities where people express their issues and seek help from moderators and other users. In such forums, there are often posts with severe content indicating that the user is in acute distress and there is a risk of attempted self-harm. Moderators need to respond to these severe posts in a timely manner to prevent potential self-harm. However, the large volume of daily posted content makes it difficult for the moderators to locate and respond to these critical posts. We present a framework for triaging user content into four severity categories which are defined based on indications of self-harm ideation. Our models are based on a feature-rich classification framework which includes lexical, psycholinguistic, contextual and topic modeling features. Our approaches improve the state of the art in triaging the content severity in mental health forums by large margins (up to 17% improvement over the F-1 scores). Using the proposed model, we analyze the mental state of users and we show that overall, long-term users of the forum demonstrate a decreased severity of risk over time. Our analysis on the interaction of the moderators with the users further indicates that without an automatic way to identify critical content, it is indeed challenging for the moderators to provide timely response to the users in need.Comment: Accepted for publication in Journal of the Association for Information Science and Technology (2017

Social sensing for epidemiological behavior change

An important question in behavioral epidemiology and public health is to understand how individual behavior is affected by illness and stress. Although changes in individual behavior are intertwined with contagion, epidemiologists today do not have sensing or modeling tools to quantitatively measure its effects in real-world conditions. In this paper, we propose a novel application of ubiquitous computing. We use mobile phone based co-location and communication sensing to measure characteristic behavior changes in symptomatic individuals, reflected in their total communication, interactions with respect to time of day (e.g., late night, early morning), diversity and entropy of face-to-face interactions and movement. Using these extracted mobile features, it is possible to predict the health status of an individual, without having actual health measurements from the subject. Finally, we estimate the temporal information flux and implied causality between physical symptoms, behavior and mental health.United States. Army Research Office (Cooperative Agreement Number W911NF-09-2-0053)United States. Air Force Office of Scientific Research (AFOSR under Award Number FA9550-10-1-0122

Proceedings of Abstracts Engineering and Computer Science Research Conference 2019

© 2019 The Author(s). This is an open-access work distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. For further details please see https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. Note: Keynote: Fluorescence visualisation to evaluate effectiveness of personal protective equipment for infection control is © 2019 Crown copyright and so is licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0. Under this licence users are permitted to copy, publish, distribute and transmit the Information; adapt the Information; exploit the Information commercially and non-commercially for example, by combining it with other Information, or by including it in your own product or application. Where you do any of the above you must acknowledge the source of the Information in your product or application by including or linking to any attribution statement specified by the Information Provider(s) and, where possible, provide a link to this licence: http://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/version/3/This book is the record of abstracts submitted and accepted for presentation at the Inaugural Engineering and Computer Science Research Conference held 17th April 2019 at the University of Hertfordshire, Hatfield, UK. This conference is a local event aiming at bringing together the research students, staff and eminent external guests to celebrate Engineering and Computer Science Research at the University of Hertfordshire. The ECS Research Conference aims to showcase the broad landscape of research taking place in the School of Engineering and Computer Science. The 2019 conference was articulated around three topical cross-disciplinary themes: Make and Preserve the Future; Connect the People and Cities; and Protect and Care

Leveraging Crowdsourced Navigation Data In Roadway Pluvial Flash Flood Prediction

This dissertation develops and tests a new data-driven framework for short-term roadway pluvial flash flood (PFF) risk estimation at the scale of road segments using crowdsourced navigation data and a simplified physics-based PFF model. Pluvial flash flooding (PFF) is defined as localized floods caused by an overwhelmed natural or engineered drainage system. This study develops a data curation and computational framework for data collection, preprocessing, and modeling to estimate the risk of PFF at road-segment scales. A hybrid approach is also developed that couples a statistical model and a simplified physics-based simulation model in a machine learning (ML) model to rapidly predict the risk of roadway PFF using Waze alerts in real-time