478 research outputs found

    The African Union and Intelligence Cooperation

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    The core research question is: how does intelligence and security services of Member States to the AU and established regional and continental security intelligence organisations collectively contribute to the implementation of the APSA? The study empirically reconstructs – descriptively, functionally and analytically – the mechanisms, magnitude and processes of intelligence cooperation at the regional and continental level within the framework of the APSA. In line with the above, the study answers these research questions: i. What are the contributions of the CEWS, as a form of open-source intelligence outfit, to the APSA? ii. What are the roles and contributions of CISSA to the AUC with particular reference to the APSA? iii. How does the Nouakchott and the Djibouti Processes contribute to implementing the APSA? Acknowledging that intelligence cooperation is strategically poised, the interest of this study is directed towards identifying, examining and evaluating established institutions and frameworks and their respective processes of intelligence cooperation. Thus, the study looks at the contribution of security intelligence towards the implementation of the African Peace and Security Architecture (APSA) of the African Union (AU), and the thesis is divided into seven chapters. Chapter 1 introduces the study and outlines the research problem, methodology, sources and materials. The second chapter provides an overview of the academic debates around intelligence cooperation. The third chapter empirically reconstructs the configurations of the APSA and conceptualise the function and service roles of each pillar in a descriptive, functional and analytical lens. Chapter 4 reconstructs the operationalisation and institutionalisation of the Continental Early Warning System (CEWS) and further examine its methodology and how it aligns early warning to decision making and early action. Chapter 5 examined the roles and contributions of the Committee of Intelligence and Security Services of Africa (CISSA) to the African Union Commission (AUC) with particular reference to the APSA. Chapter 6 provides extensive analysis and reconstruction of the operationalisation of the APSA through intelligence cooperation in the Sahelo-Saharan, East and Horn of Africa regions through the Nouakchott Process and the Djibouti Process, respectively, and the last chapter concludes the study by synopsising and reflecting on the research questions and outlining the significant contributions of the study.:Acknowledgements ii List of Figures viii List of Abbreviations ix Chapter One 1 Introduction and Overview of the Study 1 1.1 Introduction 1 1.2 State of the art 3 1.2.1 Global Intelligence Services 3 1.2.2 Intelligence Services in Africa 9 1.2.3 Intelligence Cooperation and the AU 11 1.3 Research Question 14 1.4 Research Design 15 1.4.1 Methodology 17 1.4.2 Methods 18 1.4.3 Sources and Materials 20 1.5 Organization of the thesis 21 Chapter Two 24 Intelligence Cooperation in International and Regional Organisations 24 2.1 Introduction 24 2.2 Intelligence Cooperation in International Organisations 25 2.3 Intelligence Cooperation in Regional Organisations 35 2.4 Intelligence Cooperation Typologies 44 2.5 Intelligence Cooperation Methodologies 47 2.6 Chapter Summary 49 Chapter Three 51 The African Peace and Security Architecture 51 3.1 Introduction 51 3.2 Structure of the APSA 52 3.2.1 Peace and Security Council 55 3.2.2 Panel of the Wise 60 3.2.3 Continental Early Warning System 67 3.2.4 African Standby Force 68 3.2.5 Peace Fund 73 3.3 APSA’s Strategic Priorities 75 3.4 APSA and RECs 80 3.5 Chapter Summary 84 Chapter Four 87 The CEWS, Intelligence cooperation and the APSA 87 4.1 Introduction 87 4.2 Intelligence Cooperation, Early Warning and the OAU 90 4.3 The PSC Protocol and the CEWS 97 4.4 The Operationalisation of the CEWS 100 4.5 The Institutionalisation of the CEWS 107 4.5.1 The Situation Room 107 4.5.2 The African Media Monitor 109 4.5.3 Africa Reporter 110 4.5.4 Africa Prospects 111 4.5.5 Indicators and Profile Module 111 4.5.6 The CEWS Portal 112 4.5 The CEWS Methodology 113 4.5.1 Information Collection and Monitoring 113 4.5.2 Conflict and Cooperation Analysis 118 4.5.3 Formulation of Options 121 4.5.4 Responses 123 4.6 Early Warning, Decision Making and Early Action 124 4.7 The CEWS and RECs 131 4.8 The CEWS and other Early Warning Mechanisms 134 4.8.1 Continental Structural Conflict Prevention Framework 135 4.8.2 African Peer Review Mechanism and Conflict Prevention 137 4.8.3 Horizon Scanning 139 4.9 Challenges to the CEWS 140 4.10 The Evolution and Future of the CEWS 146 4.11 Chapter Summary 149 Chapter Five 153 Committee of Intelligence and Security Services of Africa and the APSA 153 5.1 Introduction 153 5.2 Genesis 154 5.3 Mandate, Vision and Mission 157 5.4 Objectives 157 5.5 Principles 162 5.6 Functions 163 5.7 Structures of CISSA and their Functions 164 5.7.1 The Conference 164 5.7.2 Panel of Experts 178 5.7.3 Bureau of the CISSA Conference 179 5.7.4 The CISSA Regions 180 5.7.5 Troika 182 5.7.6 The Secretariat 182 5.7.7 Specialised Technical Committees 187 5.8. Relationship between CISSA and the AU 188 5.9 The Intelligence and Security Committee \ CISSA Liaison Unit 189 5.10 CISSA and Regional Security Intelligence Institutions 196 5.11 Challenges to the performance of CISSA 198 5.12 Chapter Summary 210 Chapter Six 213 Intelligence Cooperation in the Nouakchott and Djibouti Processes, 2013-2021 213 6.1 Introduction 213 6.2 The Nouakchott Process 216 6.2.1 Genesis 216 6.2.2 Inauguration 219 6.2.3 Implementation of the Nouakchott Conclusions 228 6.2.4 The Nouakchott Declaration 233 6.2.5 The Nouakchott Process vis-à-vis other Regional Frameworks 236 6.2.6 Post-declaration, Challenges and Prospect 237 6.3 The Djibouti Process 245 6.3.1 Background 245 6.3.2 Rationale 246 6.3.3 Establishment 247 6.3.4 Implementation Meetings 252 6.4 The Nouakchott and the Djibouti Processes 257 6.4.1 Joint Meeting 257 6.4.2 Points for Action 259 6.5 Past for the future in the present 261 6.6 Influence and Power Contestations 265 6.7 Chapter Summary 273 Chapter Seven 275 Conclusion 275 7.1 Introduction 275 7.2 Summary of key arguments 276 7.3 Contributions and suggestions for future research 286 8. References 293 8.1 Sources 293 8.2 Literature 303 8.3 Interviews 337 Assurance 33

    A model of co-operative education on peace support operations in Africa

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    Thesis (D. Tech.) - Central University of Technology, Free State, 2007The focus of this study is on a Model of Co-operative Education on Peace Support Operations (PSO) in Africa. PSO are multi-functional operations involving military forces and diplomatic humanitarian agencies. They are designed to achieve humanitarian goals or a long-term political settlement, and are conducted impartially in support of a UN mandate. These include peacekeeping (PK), peace enforcement (PE), conflict prevention, peacemaking, peace building, and humanitarian operations. Since the advent of democracy in 1994, domestic and international expectations have steadily grown regarding a new South African role as a responsible and respected member of the international community. These expectations have included a hope that South Africa will play a leading role in a variety of international, regional and sub-regional forums, and that the country will become an active participant in attempts to resolve various regional and international conflicts. Peacekeeping is becoming more and more important as South Africa plays a vital role in African missions, mandates, deployment and restructuring. The core of peacekeeping operations in Africa is no longer about the deployment of armed forces, but the focus is shifting towards a more integrated approach including reconstruction, development, stability, civilian involvement and humanitarian aspects. While skills required for peace operations overlap with those required for war, there is increasing recognition that additional peace operations training is needed to successfully conduct these missions. The demand, advancement and application of peacekeeping evolve worldwide, especially in Africa, where enormous funding is being poured into local research and development, testing and training. The market for Education, Training and Development (ETD) in the field of PSO is growing, as South Africa is becoming increasingly involved in peacekeeping missions on the African continent. At present, there is no Co-operative Education programme on generic PSO on the operational/strategic level presented by any of the major universities in South Africa in order to enhance other PSO training. The objectives of this research project are in phase one: • To determine the need for and feasibility of a Co-operative Education Program on PSO. • To write a instructional design (ISD) report for a Co-operative Education Model on PSO and, • To draft possible curriculum content. • The second phase of the project could involve the development of learning material, and the evaluation of the proposed Co-operative Education Model on PSO by running a pilot programme. The principal product (output) of this research will consist out of an ISD report on a Model for Co-operative Education on PSO in Africa, presented by means of Correspondence Instruction with contact sessions. The key factors in production of the learning program include geo-political and security studies in order to create an understanding of the African battle space, PSO as presented by UNITAR POCI, the assessment of international practice with regards to PSO in order to relate the information to operations in Africa, PSO on the African continent, and Civil-Military Cooperation

    A framework for assessing the tangible and intangible impacts of emergency animal diseases

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    A FRAMEWORK FOR ASSESSING THE TANGIBLE AND INTANGIBLE IMPACTS OF EMERGENCY ANIMAL DISEASES Abstract In the thesis, a novel framework for addressing the tangible and intangible impacts of emergency animal diseases (EADs) is presented. Traditional economic assessment methodologies lack the capacity to measure the intangible impacts of EADs (which are by their definition ‘difficult to measure or unable to be precisely measured’). Intangible elements can have a great impact on decisions made relating to the response, control and prevention strategies that are ultimately used to address these EADs. Intangibles have value and worth, although this value is subjective and difficult to express in dollar terms. Consequently, the intangible elements are often lost in the scope of traditional economic analysis. Without the consideration of intangible impacts, the bottom-line for decision-making related to animal-health emergencies would be based only on financial measures. This does not reflect the reality of the consultative policy-making process. A novel method for measuring the intangible impacts of EADs is used in conjunction with economic analysis. The intangible measurements are used to inflate or deflate the economic costs and benefits to create a ‘value-adjusted’ outcome. Two case studies (PRRS in northern Victoria and Hendra virus in Southeast Queensland) demonstrate the operation of the framework and outcomes from an integrated economic and intangible analysis. The case studies demonstrate the use of an intangible measurement and the calculation of an integrated value measure. This integrated value measure is used to gauge a stakeholder’s response to a proposed EAD policy. In the PRRS case studies, the outcomes indicate that overall, the pork industry would be in favour of maintaining a PRRS-free status in Australia. Other stakeholder groups would be prepared to make some compromise on a ‘disease-free’ status. The reasons for this may include the continuation of positive flow-on effects from pork processing or to prevent animal welfare issues that may occur as a result of overcrowding and resource stress during an EAD response. The Hendra virus case study outcomes indicate that a subsidised vaccination campaign (in the form of vaccination clinics) would present a unanimously superior solution to preventing cases of Hendra virus in humans and horses when compared to flying-fox roost removal. Using this framework to gather stakeholder data during the consultative process of policy-making aids in the identification and recording of the perceived value of intangible costs and benefits from the stakeholder perspective. These data can be used to aid decision-making or to help facilitate capacity building through the policy-making process. The use of the framework will ensure that the resulting analysis includes the full impacts of EADs, rather than only a narrow comparison of financial costs and benefits

    Optimising outcomes for potentially resectable pancreatic cancer through personalised predictive medicine : the application of complexity theory to probabilistic statistical modeling

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    Survival outcomes for pancreatic cancer remain poor. Surgical resection with adjuvant therapy is the only potentially curative treatment, but for many people surgery is of limited benefit. Neoadjuvant therapy has emerged as an alternative treatment pathway however the evidence base surrounding the treatment of potentially resectable pancreatic cancer is highly heterogeneous and fraught with uncertainty and controversy. This research seeks to engage with conjunctive theorising by avoiding simplification and abstraction to draw on different kinds of data from multiple sources to move research towards a theory that can build a rich picture of pancreatic cancer management pathways as a complex system. The overall aim is to move research towards personalised realistic medicine by using personalised predictive modeling to facilitate better decision making to achieve the optimisation of outcomes. This research is theory driven and empirically focused from a complexity perspective. Combining operational and healthcare research methodology, and drawing on influences from complementary paradigms of critical realism and systems theory, then enhancing their impact by using Cilliers’ complexity theory ‘lean ontology’, an open-world ontology is held and both epistemic reality and judgmental relativity are accepted. The use of imperfect data within statistical simulation models is explored to attempt to expand our capabilities for handling the emergent and uncertainty and to find other ways of relating to complexity within the field of pancreatic cancer research. Markov and discrete-event simulation modelling uncovered new insights and added a further dimension to the current debate by demonstrating that superior treatment pathway selection depended on individual patient and tumour factors. A Bayesian Belief Network was developed that modelled the dynamic nature of this complex system to make personalised prognostic predictions across competing treatments pathways throughout the patient journey to facilitate better shared clinical decision making with an accuracy exceeding existing predictive models.Survival outcomes for pancreatic cancer remain poor. Surgical resection with adjuvant therapy is the only potentially curative treatment, but for many people surgery is of limited benefit. Neoadjuvant therapy has emerged as an alternative treatment pathway however the evidence base surrounding the treatment of potentially resectable pancreatic cancer is highly heterogeneous and fraught with uncertainty and controversy. This research seeks to engage with conjunctive theorising by avoiding simplification and abstraction to draw on different kinds of data from multiple sources to move research towards a theory that can build a rich picture of pancreatic cancer management pathways as a complex system. The overall aim is to move research towards personalised realistic medicine by using personalised predictive modeling to facilitate better decision making to achieve the optimisation of outcomes. This research is theory driven and empirically focused from a complexity perspective. Combining operational and healthcare research methodology, and drawing on influences from complementary paradigms of critical realism and systems theory, then enhancing their impact by using Cilliers’ complexity theory ‘lean ontology’, an open-world ontology is held and both epistemic reality and judgmental relativity are accepted. The use of imperfect data within statistical simulation models is explored to attempt to expand our capabilities for handling the emergent and uncertainty and to find other ways of relating to complexity within the field of pancreatic cancer research. Markov and discrete-event simulation modelling uncovered new insights and added a further dimension to the current debate by demonstrating that superior treatment pathway selection depended on individual patient and tumour factors. A Bayesian Belief Network was developed that modelled the dynamic nature of this complex system to make personalised prognostic predictions across competing treatments pathways throughout the patient journey to facilitate better shared clinical decision making with an accuracy exceeding existing predictive models

    Lehren aus globalen Energieszenarien; Global long-term energy scenarios: lessons learnt

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    Fourth NASA Goddard Conference on Mass Storage Systems and Technologies

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    This report contains copies of all those technical papers received in time for publication just prior to the Fourth Goddard Conference on Mass Storage and Technologies, held March 28-30, 1995, at the University of Maryland, University College Conference Center, in College Park, Maryland. This series of conferences continues to serve as a unique medium for the exchange of information on topics relating to the ingestion and management of substantial amounts of data and the attendant problems involved. This year's discussion topics include new storage technology, stability of recorded media, performance studies, storage system solutions, the National Information infrastructure (Infobahn), the future for storage technology, and lessons learned from various projects. There also will be an update on the IEEE Mass Storage System Reference Model Version 5, on which the final vote was taken in July 1994
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