The Wall Street Neophyte: A Zero-Shot Analysis of ChatGPT Over MultiModal Stock Movement Prediction Challenges

Recently, large language models (LLMs) like ChatGPT have demonstrated remarkable performance across a variety of natural language processing tasks. However, their effectiveness in the financial domain, specifically in predicting stock market movements, remains to be explored. In this paper, we conduct an extensive zero-shot analysis of ChatGPT's capabilities in multimodal stock movement prediction, on three tweets and historical stock price datasets. Our findings indicate that ChatGPT is a "Wall Street Neophyte" with limited success in predicting stock movements, as it underperforms not only state-of-the-art methods but also traditional methods like linear regression using price features. Despite the potential of Chain-of-Thought prompting strategies and the inclusion of tweets, ChatGPT's performance remains subpar. Furthermore, we observe limitations in its explainability and stability, suggesting the need for more specialized training or fine-tuning. This research provides insights into ChatGPT's capabilities and serves as a foundation for future work aimed at improving financial market analysis and prediction by leveraging social media sentiment and historical stock data.Comment: 13 page

Augmenting LLMs with Knowledge: A survey on hallucination prevention

Large pre-trained language models have demonstrated their proficiency in storing factual knowledge within their parameters and achieving remarkable results when fine-tuned for downstream natural language processing tasks. Nonetheless, their capacity to access and manipulate knowledge with precision remains constrained, resulting in performance disparities on knowledge-intensive tasks when compared to task-specific architectures. Additionally, the challenges of providing provenance for model decisions and maintaining up-to-date world knowledge persist as open research frontiers. To address these limitations, the integration of pre-trained models with differentiable access mechanisms to explicit non-parametric memory emerges as a promising solution. This survey delves into the realm of language models (LMs) augmented with the ability to tap into external knowledge sources, including external knowledge bases and search engines. While adhering to the standard objective of predicting missing tokens, these augmented LMs leverage diverse, possibly non-parametric external modules to augment their contextual processing capabilities, departing from the conventional language modeling paradigm. Through an exploration of current advancements in augmenting large language models with knowledge, this work concludes that this emerging research direction holds the potential to address prevalent issues in traditional LMs, such as hallucinations, un-grounded responses, and scalability challenges

Enhance Representation Learning of Clinical Narrative with Neural Networks for Clinical Predictive Modeling

Medicine is undergoing a technological revolution. Understanding human health from clinical data has major challenges from technical and practical perspectives, thus prompting methods that understand large, complex, and noisy data. These methods are particularly necessary for natural language data from clinical narratives/notes, which contain some of the richest information on a patient. Meanwhile, deep neural networks have achieved superior performance in a wide variety of natural language processing (NLP) tasks because of their capacity to encode meaningful but abstract representations and learn the entire task end-to-end. In this thesis, I investigate representation learning of clinical narratives with deep neural networks through a number of tasks ranging from clinical concept extraction, clinical note modeling, and patient-level language representation. I present methods utilizing representation learning with neural networks to support understanding of clinical text documents. I first introduce the notion of representation learning from natural language processing and patient data modeling. Then, I investigate word-level representation learning to improve clinical concept extraction from clinical notes. I present two works on learning word representations and evaluate them to extract important concepts from clinical notes. The first study focuses on cancer-related information, and the second study evaluates shared-task data. The aims of these two studies are to automatically extract important entities from clinical notes. Next, I present a series of deep neural networks to encode hierarchical, longitudinal, and contextual information for modeling a series of clinical notes. I also evaluate the models by predicting clinical outcomes of interest, including mortality, length of stay, and phenotype predictions. Finally, I propose a novel representation learning architecture to develop a generalized and transferable language representation at the patient level. I also identify pre-training tasks appropriate for constructing a generalizable language representation. The main focus is to improve predictive performance of phenotypes with limited data, a challenging task due to a lack of data. Overall, this dissertation addresses issues in natural language processing for medicine, including clinical text classification and modeling. These studies show major barriers to understanding large-scale clinical notes. It is believed that developing deep representation learning methods for distilling enormous amounts of heterogeneous data into patient-level language representations will improve evidence-based clinical understanding. The approach to solving these issues by learning representations could be used across clinical applications despite noisy data. I conclude that considering different linguistic components in natural language and sequential information between clinical events is important. Such results have implications beyond the immediate context of predictions and further suggest future directions for clinical machine learning research to improve clinical outcomes. This could be a starting point for future phenotyping methods based on natural language processing that construct patient-level language representations to improve clinical predictions. While significant progress has been made, many open questions remain, so I will highlight a few works to demonstrate promising directions