N:P:Si nutrient export ratios and ecological consequences in coastal seas evaluated by the ICEP approach

The Indicator for Coastal Eutrophication Potential (ICEP) for river nutrient export of nitrogen, phosphorus, and silica at the global scale was first calculated from available measurement data. Positive values of ICEP indicate an excess of nitrogen and phosphorus over silica and generally coincide with eutrophication. The sign of ICEP based on measured nutrient fluxes was in good agreement with the corresponding one calculated from the Global-NEWS models for more than 5000 watersheds in the world. Calculated ICEP for the year 2050 based on Global NEWS data for the four Millennium Ecosystem Assessment scenarios show increasing values particularly in developing countries. For further evaluation of the ICEP at the outlet of the rivers of the world based on measurements, there is a need for additional determination silica fluxes and concentrations, which are scarcely documented

Observing and modelling phytoplankton community structure in the North Sea

© Author(s) 2017. CC Attribution 3.0 License. Phytoplankton form the base of the marine food chain, and knowledge of phytoplankton community structure is fundamental when assessing marine biodiversity. Policy makers and other users require information on marine biodiversity and other aspects of the marine environment for the North Sea, a highly productive European shelf sea. This information must come from a combination of observations and models, but currently the coastal ocean is greatly under-sampled for phytoplankton data, and outputs of phytoplankton community structure from models are therefore not yet frequently validated. This study presents a novel set of in situ observations of phytoplankton community structure for the North Sea using accessory pigment analysis. The observations allow a good understanding of the patterns of surface phytoplankton biomass and community structure in the North Sea for the observed months of August 2010 and 2011. Two physical-biogeochemical ocean models, the biogeochemical components of which are different variants of the widely used European Regional Seas Ecosystem Model (ERSEM), were then validated against these and other observations. Both models were a good match for sea surface temperature observations, and a reasonable match for remotely sensed ocean colour observations. However, the two models displayed very different phytoplankton community structures, with one better matching the in situ observations than the other. Nonetheless, both models shared some similarities with the observations in terms of spatial features and inter-annual variability. An initial comparison of the formulations and parameterizations of the two models suggests that diversity between the parameter settings of model phytoplankton functional types, along with formulations which promote a greater sensitivity to changes in light and nutrients, is key to capturing the observed phytoplankton community structure. These findings will help inform future model development, which should be coupled with detailed validation studies, in order to help facilitate the wider application of marine biogeochemical modelling to user and policy needs

How models can support ecosystem-based management of coral reefs

Despite the importance of coral reef ecosystems to the social and economic welfare of coastal communities, the condition of these marine ecosystems have generally degraded over the past decades. With an increased knowledge of coral reef ecosystem processes and a rise in computer power, dynamic models are useful tools in assessing the synergistic effects of local and global stressors on ecosystem functions. We review representative approaches for dynamically modeling coral reef ecosystems and categorize them as minimal, intermediate and complex models. The categorization was based on the leading principle for model development and their level of realism and process detail. This review aims to improve the knowledge of concurrent approaches in coral reef ecosystem modeling and highlights the importance of choosing an appropriate approach based on the type of question(s) to be answered. We contend that minimal and intermediate models are generally valuable tools to assess the response of key states to main stressors and, hence, contribute to understanding ecological surprises. As has been shown in freshwater resources management, insight into these conceptual relations profoundly influences how natural resource managers perceive their systems and how they manage ecosystem recovery. We argue that adaptive resource management requires integrated thinking and decision support, which demands a diversity of modeling approaches. Integration can be achieved through complimentary use of models or through integrated models that systemically combine all relevant aspects in one model. Such whole-of-system models can be useful tools for quantitatively evaluating scenarios. These models allow an assessment of the interactive effects of multiple stressors on various, potentially conflicting, management objectives. All models simplify reality and, as such, have their weaknesses. While minimal models lack multidimensionality, system models are likely difficult to interpret as they require many efforts to decipher the numerous interactions and feedback loops. Given the breadth of questions to be tackled when dealing with coral reefs, the best practice approach uses multiple model types and thus benefits from the strength of different models types

IMBER – Research for marine sustainability: Synthesis and the way forward

The Integrated Marine Biogeochemistry and Ecosystem Research (IMBER) project aims at developing a comprehensive understanding of and accurate predictive capacity of ocean responses to accelerating global change and the consequent effects on the Earth system and human society. Understanding the changing ecology and biogeochemistry of marine ecosystems and their sensitivity and resilience to multiple drivers, pressures and stressors is critical to developing responses that will help reduce the vulnerability of marine-dependent human communities. This overview of the IMBER project provides a synthesis of project achievements and highlights the value of collaborative, interdisciplinary, integrated research approaches as developed and implemented through IMBER regional programs, working groups, project-wide activities, national contributions, and external partnerships. A perspective is provided on the way forward for the next 10 years of the IMBER project as the global environmental change research landscape evolves and as new areas of marine research emerge. IMBER science aims to foster collaborative, interdisciplinary and integrated research that addresses key ocean and social science issues and provides the understanding needed to propose innovative societal responses to changing marine systems

Use of our Future Seas : Relevance of Spatial and Temporal Scale for Physical and Biological Indicators

Funding This work was supported by the Supergen Offshore Renewable Energy (ORE) Hub, funded by the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC EP/S000747/1). Acknowledgments The authors would like to thank the following people for providing original images, incorporated in this work: Rory O’Hara Murray (Marine Scotland Science, United Kingdom), Ella-Sophia Benninghaus and Morgane Declerck (University of Aberdeen, United Kingdom).Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Uses of Innovative Modeling Tools within the Implementation of the Marine Strategy Framework Directive

In Europe and around the world, the approach to management of the marine environment has developed from the management of single issues (e.g., species and/or pressures) toward holistic Ecosystem Based Management (EBM) that includes aims to maintain biological diversity and protect ecosystem functioning. Within the European Union, this approach is implemented through the Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD, 2008/56/EC). Integrated Ecosystem Assessment is required by the Directive in order to assess Good Environmental Status (GES). Ecological modeling has a key role to play within the implementation of the MSFD, as demonstrated here by case studies covering a range of spatial scales and a selection of anthropogenic threats. Modeling studies have a strong role to play in embedding data collected at limited points within a larger spatial and temporal scale, thus enabling assessments of pelagic and seabed habitat. Furthermore, integrative studies using food web and ecosystem models are able to investigate changes in food web functioning and biological diversity in response to changes in the environment and human pressures. Modeling should be used to: support the development and selection of specific indicators; set reference points to assess state and the achievement of GES; inform adaptive monitoring programs and trial management scenarios. The modus operandi proposed shows how ecological modeling could support the decision making process leading to appropriate management measures and inform new policy.This manuscript is a result of DEVOTES (DEVelopment Of innovative Tools for understanding marine biological diversity and assessing good Environmental Status) project, funded by the European Union under the 7th Framework Programme, “The Ocean of Tomorrow” Theme (grant agreement no. 308392), www.devotes-project.eu.Peer reviewedPeer Reviewe

Forecasting harmful algae blooms: Application to Dinophysis acuminata in northern Norway

Dinophysis acuminata produces Diarrhetic Shellfish Toxins (DST) that contaminate natural and farmed shellfish, leading to public health risks and economically impacting mussel farms. For this reason, there is a high interest in understanding and predicting D. acuminata blooms. This study assesses the environmental conditions and develops a sub-seasonal (7 - 28 days) forecast model to predict D. acuminata cells abundance in the Lyngen fjord located in northern Norway. A Support Vector Machine (SVM) model is trained to predict future D. acuminata cells abundance by using the past cell concentration, sea surface temperature (SST), Photosynthetic Active Radiation (PAR), and wind speed. Cells concentration of Dinophysis spp. are measured in-situ from 2006 to 2019, and SST, PAR, and surface wind speed are obtained by satellite remote sensing. D. acuminata only explains 40% of DST variability from 2006 to 2011, but it changes to 65% after 2011 when D. acuta prevalence reduced. The D. acuminata blooms can reach concentration up to 3954 cells l−1 and are restricted to the summer during warmer waters, varying from 7.8 to 12.7 °C. The forecast model predicts with fair accuracy the seasonal development of the blooms and the blooms amplitude, showing a coefficient of determination varying from 0.46 to 0.55. SST has been found to be a useful predictor for the seasonal development of the blooms, while the past cells abundance is needed for updating the current status and adjusting the blooms timing and amplitude. The calibrated model should be tested operationally in the future to provide an early warning of D. acuminata blooms in the Lyngen fjord. The approach can be generalized to other regions by recalibrating the model with local observations of D. acuminata blooms and remote sensing data.publishedVersio

PICES Press, Vol. 16, No. 2, July 2008

The 2008 Inter-Sessional Science Board Meeting (pp.1-2, pdf, 0.1 Mb) FUTURE – From Science Plan to Implementation Plan (pp. 3-4, pdf, 0.1 Mb) CFAME Task Team Workshop – Linking and Visualising (p. 5, pdf, 0.1 Mb) PICES WG 21 Meets in Busan, Korea: The Database Meeting (pp. 6-7, pdf, 0.1 Mb) ICES-PICES-IOC Symposium on Climate Change (pp. 8-12, pdf, 1.2 Mb) Zooplankton and Climate: Response Modes and Linkages (pp. 13-15, pdf, 0.2 Mb) PICES Fishery Science Committee Workshop in Gijón (pp. 16-18, pdf, 0.1 Mb) The North Pacific Continuous Plankton Recorder Survey (pp. 19-21, pdf, 0.4 Mb) PICES Ecosystem Status Report Wins Design Award (p. 21, pdf, 0.4 Mb) Canada’s Three Oceans (C3O): A Canadian Contribution to the International Polar Year (pp. 22-25, pdf, 0.8 Mb) New Surface Mooring at Station Papa Monitors Climate (pp. 26-27, pdf, 0.2 Mb) The State of the Western North Pacific in the Second Half of 2007 (pp. 28-29, pdf, 0.4 Mb) The Bering Sea: Current Status and Recent Events (pp. 30-31, pdf, 0.4 Mb) Recent Trends in Waters of the Subarctic NE Pacific (pp.32-33, pdf, 0.3 Mb) 2009 Vintage of Fraser River Sockeye Salmon: A Complex Full Bodied Redd with Mysterious Bouquet (p. 34, pdf, 0.1 Mb) Pacific Biological Station Celebrates Centennial Anniversary, 1908–2008 (p. 35, pdf, 0.3 Mb) Marine and Coastal Fisheries: American Fisheries Society Open Access E-journal (p. 36, pdf, 0.1 Mb) Latest and Upcoming PICES Publications (p. 36, pdf, 0.1 Mb

The Cooperative Participatory Evaluation of Renewable Technologies on Ecosystem Services (CORPORATES)

Publisher PD