Investigating risk factors and predicting complications in deep brain stimulation surgery with machine learning algorithms

Background: Deep brain stimulation (DBS) surgery is an option for patients experiencing medically resistant neurological symptoms. DBS complications are rare; finding significant predictors requires a large number of surgeries. Machine learning algorithms may be used to effectively predict these outcomes. The aims of this study were to (1) investigate preoperative clinical risk factors, and (2) build machine learning models to predict adverse outcomes. Methods: This multicenter registry collected clinical and demographic characteristics of patients undergoing DBS surgery (n=501) and tabulated occurrence of complications. Logistic regression was used to evaluate risk factors. Supervised learning algorithms were trained and validated on 70% and 30%, respectively, of both oversampled and original registry data. Performance was evaluated using area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC), sensitivity, specificity and accuracy. Results: Logistic regression showed that the risk of complication was related to the operating institution in which the surgery was performed (OR=0.44, confidence interval [CI]=0.25-0.78), BMI (OR=0.94,CI=0.89-0.99) and diabetes (OR=2.33,CI=1.18-4.60). Patients with diabetes were almost three times more likely to return to the operating room (OR=2.78,CI=1.31-5.88). Patients with a history of smoking were four times more likely to experience postoperative infection (OR=4.20,CI=1.21-14.61). Supervised learning algorithms demonstrated high discrimination performance when predicting any complication (AUC=0.86), a complication within 12 months (AUC=0.91), return to the operating room (AUC=0.88) and infection (AUC=0.97). Age, BMI, procedure side, gender and a diagnosis of Parkinson’s disease were influential features. Conclusions: Multiple significant complication risk factors were identified and supervised learning algorithms effectively predicted adverse outcomes in DBS surgery

Investigating Risk Factors and Predicting Complications in Deep Brain Stimulation Surgery with Machine Learning Algorithms

© 2019 Elsevier Inc. Background: Deep brain stimulation (DBS) surgery is an option for patients experiencing medically resistant neurologic symptoms. DBS complications are rare; finding significant predictors requires a large number of surgeries. Machine learning algorithms may be used to effectively predict these outcomes. The aims of this study were to 1) investigate preoperative clinical risk factors and 2) build machine learning models to predict adverse outcomes. Methods: This multicenter registry collected clinical and demographic characteristics of patients undergoing DBS surgery (n = 501) and tabulated occurrence of complications. Logistic regression was used to evaluate risk factors. Supervised learning algorithms were trained and validated on 70% and 30%, respectively, of both oversampled and original registry data. Performance was evaluated using area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC), sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy. Results: Logistic regression showed that the risk of complication was related to the operating institution in which the surgery was performed (odds ratio [OR] = 0.44, confidence interval [CI] = 0.25–0.78), body mass index (OR = 0.94, CI = 0.89–0.99), and diabetes (OR = 2.33, CI = 1.18–4.60). Patients with diabetes were almost 3× more likely to return to the operating room (OR = 2.78, CI = 1.31–5.88). Patients with a history of smoking were 4× more likely to experience postoperative infection (OR = 4.20, CI = 1.21–14.61). Supervised learning algorithms demonstrated high discrimination performance when predicting any complication (AUC = 0.86), a complication within 12 months (AUC = 0.91), return to the operating room (AUC = 0.88), and infection (AUC = 0.97). Age, body mass index, procedure side, gender, and a diagnosis of Parkinson disease were influential features. Conclusions: Multiple significant complication risk factors were identified, and supervised learning algorithms effectively predicted adverse outcomes in DBS surgery

Visualization, Prediction, and Causal Inference: Applications in Healthcare

The recent wave of data collection in the field of healthcare has opened up an ocean of possibilities to learn and develop new exploratory, diagnostic, and prognostic methods. This thesis explores how three fields of statistics (1) data visualization, (2) prediction, (3) and causal inference, can help us leverage this data in order to answer a wide range of questions in healthcare.Part I of this thesis presents a software package called superheat that can be used by researchers to visualize complex datasets and multi-faceted modeling results. The primary users of this software so far have been those in the medical research industry. In this thesis, we apply superheat in three case studies including (1) using a publicly available global organ donation database curated by the World Health Organization to understand and summarize the global organ donation trends, (2) visualizing groups of topics that appear in text data scraped from Google News, (3) examining model performance for a model designed to predict the brain's response to images using fMRI data. The theme of Part 1 of this thesis is visualization in healthcare.Part II of this thesis introduces an analysis for predicting a patient's risk of developing a Surgical Site Infection (SSI) following surgery. A SSI is an infection that occurs at the site of a surgery within 30 days post surgery, and is responsible for up to 30% of hospital acquired infections. This method was developed in collaboration with healthcare professionals including infectious disease experts and surgeons at UC Davis. The theme of Part 2 of this thesis is prediction in healthcare.Part III of this thesis presents a novel application of instrumental variables in causal inference, asking about the possible effectiveness of a "survival-benefit"-based liver transplant allocation scheme. The conclusion is that while there could be substantial benefit yielded from rethinking how organs are allocated, the feasibility of implementing such a scheme that relies drawing causal inferences from complex observational data is extremely difficult. The theme of Part 3 of this thesis is causal inference in healthcare

Regionalization Versus Competition in Complex Cancer Surgery

The empirical association between high hospital procedure volume and lower mortality rates has led to recommendations for the regionalization of complex surgical procedures. While regionalization may improve outcomes, it also reduces market competition, which has been found to lower prices and improve health care quality. This study estimates the potential net benefits of regionalizing the Whipple surgery for pancreatic cancer patients. We confirm that increased hospital volume and surgeon volume are associated with lower inpatient mortality rates. We then predict the price and outcome consequences of concentrating Whipple surgery at hospitals that perform at least two, four, and six procedures respectively per year. Our consumer surplus calculations suggest that regionalization can increase consumer surplus, but potential price increases extract over half of the value of reduced deaths from regionalization. We reach three conclusions. First, regionalization can increase consumer surplus, but the benefits may be substantially less than implied by examining only the outcome side of the equation. Second, modest changes in outcomes due to regionalization may lead to decreases in consumer surplus. Third, before any regionalization policy is implemented, a deep and precise understanding of the nature of both outcome/volume and price/competition relationships is needed

Signal Processing and Machine Learning Techniques Towards Various Real-World Applications

abstract: Machine learning (ML) has played an important role in several modern technological innovations and has become an important tool for researchers in various fields of interest. Besides engineering, ML techniques have started to spread across various departments of study, like health-care, medicine, diagnostics, social science, finance, economics etc. These techniques require data to train the algorithms and model a complex system and make predictions based on that model. Due to development of sophisticated sensors it has become easier to collect large volumes of data which is used to make necessary hypotheses using ML. The promising results obtained using ML have opened up new opportunities of research across various departments and this dissertation is a manifestation of it. Here, some unique studies have been presented, from which valuable inference have been drawn for a real-world complex system. Each study has its own unique sets of motivation and relevance to the real world. An ensemble of signal processing (SP) and ML techniques have been explored in each study. This dissertation provides the detailed systematic approach and discusses the results achieved in each study. Valuable inferences drawn from each study play a vital role in areas of science and technology, and it is worth further investigation. This dissertation also provides a set of useful SP and ML tools for researchers in various fields of interest.Dissertation/ThesisDoctoral Dissertation Electrical Engineering 201

Development of Clinical Prediction Models for Surgery and Complications in Crohn’s Disease

Background and Objective: Crohn’s disease (CD)-related complications account for a substantial proportion of IBD-related healthcare expenditure. Identifying patients at risk for complications may allow for targeted use of early therapeutic interventions to alter this natural course. The objective of this project was to develop risk prediction models of CD-related surgery and complications. Methods: Using data from the REACT cluster-randomized clinical trial (N=1898 from 41 community practices), prediction models were developed and internally validated for CD-related surgery and CD-related complications, defined as the first CD-related surgery, hospitalization or complication within 24 months. Performance of each model was assessed in terms of discrimination and calibration, as well as decision curves and net benefit analyses. Results: There were 130 (6.8%) CD-related surgeries and 504 (26.6%) CD-related complications during the 24-month follow-up period. Selected baseline predictors for predicting surgery included age, gender, disease location, HBI score, stool frequency, antimetabolite or 5-aminosalicylates use, and the presence of a fistula, abscess or abdominal mass. Selected predictors of complications included those same factors for surgery, corticosteroid and TNF-antagonist use and excluded 5-aminosalicylate use. The discrimination ability, as measured by optimism-corrected c-statistic, was 0.70 for the surgery model, and 0.62 for the complication model. Score charts and nomograms were developed to facilitate future risk score calculation. Conclusions: Risk prediction models for CD-related surgery and CD-related complications were developed using clinical trial data involving community gastroenterology practices. These models need to be externally validated before being used to guide management of CD

A Proposed Method for Monitoring U.S. Population Health: Linking Symptoms, Impairments, and Health Ratings

We propose a method of quantifying non-fatal health on a 0-1 QALY scale that details the impact of specific symptoms and impairments and is not based on ratings of counterfactual scenarios. Measures of general health status are regressed on health impairments and symptoms in different domains, using ordered probit and ordinary least squares regression. This yields estimates of their effects analogous to disutility weights, and accounts for complex non-additive relationships. Health measures used include self-rated health status on a 5-point scale, EuroQol 5D (EQ-5D) scores, and ratings of current health using a 0-100 rating scale and a time-tradeoff. Data are from the nationally representative Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS) year 2002 (N=34,615), with validation in an independent sample from MEPS 2000 (N=21,067) and among 1420 adults age 45-89 in the Beaver Dam Health Outcomes Study. Decrement weights for symptoms and impairments are used to derive estimates of overall health-related quality of life, laying the groundwork for a detailed national summary measure of health. To purchase a copy of the earlier version of this paper, please contact the Working Papers department directly at (617) 588 1405.

Advancing efficiency analysis using data envelopment analysis: the case of German health care and higher education sectors

The main goal of this dissertation is to investigate the advancement of efficiency analysis through DEA. This is practically followed by the case of German health care and higher education organizations. Towards achieving the goal, this dissertation is driven by the following research questions: 1.How the quality of the different DEA models can be evaluated? 2.How can hospitals’ efficiency be reliably measured in light of the pitfalls of DEA applications? 3.In measuring teaching hospital efficiency, what should be considered? 4.At the crossroads of internationalization, how can we analyze university efficiency? Both the higher education and the health care industries are characterized by similar missions, organizational structures, and resource requirements. There has been increasing pressure on universities and health care delivery systems around the world to improve their performance during the past decade. That is, to bring costs under control while ensuring high-quality services and better public accessibility. Achieving superior performance in higher education and health care is a challenging and intractable issue. Although many statistical methods have been used, DEA is increasingly used by researchers to find best practices and evaluate inefficiencies in productivity. By comparing DMU behavior to actual behavior, DEA produces best practices frontier rather than central tendencies, that is, the best attainable results in practice. The dissertation primarily focuses on the advancement of DEA models primarily for use in hospitals and universities. In Section 1 of this dissertation, the significance of hospital and university efficiency measurement, as well as the fundamentals of DEA models, are thoroughly described. The main research questions that drive this dissertation are then outlined after a brief review of the considerations that must be taken into account when employing DEA. Section 2 consists of a summary of the four contributions. Each contribution is presented in its entirety in the appendices. According to these contributions, Section 3 answers and critically discusses the research questions posed. Using the Translog production function, a sophisticated data generation process is developed in the first contribution based on a Monte Carlo simulation. Thus, we can generate a wide range of diverse scenarios that behave under VRS. Using the artificially generated DMUs, different DEA models are used to calculate the DEA efficiency scores. The quality of efficiency estimates derived from DEA models is measured based on five performance indicators, which are then aggregated into two benchmark-value and benchmark-rank indicators. Several hypothesis tests are also conducted to analyze the distributions of the efficiency scores of each scenario. In this way, it is possible to make a general statement regarding the parameters that negatively or positively affect the quality of DEA estimations. In comparison with the most commonly used BCC model, AR and SBM DEA models perform much better under VRS. All DEA applications will be affected by this finding. In fact, the relevance of these results for university and health care DEA applications is evident in the answers to research questions 2 and 4, where the importance of using sophisticated models is stressed. To be able to handle violations of the assumptions in DEA, we need some complementary approaches when units operate in different environments. By combining complementary modeling techniques, Contribution 2 aims to develop and evaluate a framework for analyzing hospital performance. Machin learning techniques are developed to perform cluster analysis, heterogeneity, and best practice analyses. A large dataset consisting of more than 1,100 hospitals in Germany illustrates the applicability of the integrated framework. In addition to predicting the best performance, the framework can be used to determine whether differences in relative efficiency scores are due to heterogeneity in inputs and outputs. In this contribution, an approach to enhancing the reliability of DEA performance analyses of hospital markets is presented as part of the answer to research question 2. In real-world situations, integer-valued amounts and flexible measures pose two principal challenges. The traditional DEA models do not address either challenge. Contribution 3 proposes an extended SBM DEA model that accommodates such data irregularities and complexity. Further, an alternative DEA model is presented that calculates efficiency by directly addressing slacks. The proposed models are further applied to 28 universities hospitals in Germany. The majority of inefficiencies can be attributed to “third-party funding income” received by university hospitals from research-granting agencies. In light of the fact that most research-granting organizations prefer to support university hospitals with the greatest impact, it seems reasonable to conclude that targeting research missions may enhance the efficiency of German university hospitals. This finding contributes to answering research question 3. University missions are heavily influenced by internationalization, but the efficacy of this strategy and its relationship to overall university efficiency are largely unknown. Contribution 4 fills this gap by implementing a three-stage mathematical method to explore university internationalization and university business models. The approach is based on SBM DEA methods and regression/correlation analyses and is designed to determine the relative internationalization and relative efficiency of German universities and analyze the influence of environmental factors on them. The key question 4 posed can now be answered. It has been found that German universities are relatively efficient at both levels of analysis, but there is no direct correlation between them. In addition, the results show that certain locational factors do not significantly affect the university’s efficiency. For policymakers, it is important to point out that efficiency modeling methodology is highly contested and in its infancy. DEA efficiency results are affected by many technical judgments for which there is little guidance on best practices. In many cases, these judgments have more to do with political than technical aspects (such as output choices). This suggests a need for a discussion between analysts and policymakers. In a nutshell, there is no doubt that DEA models can contribute to any health care or university mission. Despite the limitations we have discussed previously to ensure that they are used appropriately, these methods still offer powerful insights into organizational performance. Even though these techniques are widely popular, they are seldom used in real clinical (rather than academic) settings. The only purpose of analytical tools such as DEA is to inform rather than determine regulatory judgments. They, therefore, have to be an essential part of any competent regulator’s analytical arsenal