165,351 research outputs found
Predicting and Evaluating Software Model Growth in the Automotive Industry
The size of a software artifact influences the software quality and impacts
the development process. In industry, when software size exceeds certain
thresholds, memory errors accumulate and development tools might not be able to
cope anymore, resulting in a lengthy program start up times, failing builds, or
memory problems at unpredictable times. Thus, foreseeing critical growth in
software modules meets a high demand in industrial practice. Predicting the
time when the size grows to the level where maintenance is needed prevents
unexpected efforts and helps to spot problematic artifacts before they become
critical.
Although the amount of prediction approaches in literature is vast, it is
unclear how well they fit with prerequisites and expectations from practice. In
this paper, we perform an industrial case study at an automotive manufacturer
to explore applicability and usability of prediction approaches in practice. In
a first step, we collect the most relevant prediction approaches from
literature, including both, approaches using statistics and machine learning.
Furthermore, we elicit expectations towards predictions from practitioners
using a survey and stakeholder workshops. At the same time, we measure software
size of 48 software artifacts by mining four years of revision history,
resulting in 4,547 data points. In the last step, we assess the applicability
of state-of-the-art prediction approaches using the collected data by
systematically analyzing how well they fulfill the practitioners' expectations.
Our main contribution is a comparison of commonly used prediction approaches
in a real world industrial setting while considering stakeholder expectations.
We show that the approaches provide significantly different results regarding
prediction accuracy and that the statistical approaches fit our data best
Recommended from our members
A systematic review of software development cost estimation studies
This paper aims to provide a basis for the improvement of software estimation research through a systematic review of previous work. The review identifies 304 software cost estimation papers in 76 journals and classifies the papers according to research topic, estimation approach, research approach, study context and data set. A web-based library of these cost estimation papers is provided to ease the identification of relevant estimation research results. The review results combined with other knowledge provide support for recommendations for future software cost estimation research, including: 1) Increase the breadth of the search for relevant studies, 2) Search manually for relevant papers within a carefully selected set of journals when completeness is essential, 3) Conduct more studies on estimation methods commonly used by the software industry, and, 4) Increase the awareness of how properties of the data sets impact the results when evaluating estimation methods
Hidden Markov Models and their Application for Predicting Failure Events
We show how Markov mixed membership models (MMMM) can be used to predict the
degradation of assets. We model the degradation path of individual assets, to
predict overall failure rates. Instead of a separate distribution for each
hidden state, we use hierarchical mixtures of distributions in the exponential
family. In our approach the observation distribution of the states is a finite
mixture distribution of a small set of (simpler) distributions shared across
all states. Using tied-mixture observation distributions offers several
advantages. The mixtures act as a regularization for typically very sparse
problems, and they reduce the computational effort for the learning algorithm
since there are fewer distributions to be found. Using shared mixtures enables
sharing of statistical strength between the Markov states and thus transfer
learning. We determine for individual assets the trade-off between the risk of
failure and extended operating hours by combining a MMMM with a partially
observable Markov decision process (POMDP) to dynamically optimize the policy
for when and how to maintain the asset.Comment: Will be published in the proceedings of ICCS 2020;
@Booklet{EasyChair:3183, author = {Paul Hofmann and Zaid Tashman}, title =
{Hidden Markov Models and their Application for Predicting Failure Events},
howpublished = {EasyChair Preprint no. 3183}, year = {EasyChair, 2020}
Surveying the factors that influence maintainability: research design
We want to explore and analyse design decisions that influence maintainability of software. Software maintainability is important because the effort expended on changes and fixes in software is a major cost driver. We take an empirical, qualitative approach, by investigating cases where a change has cost more or less than comparable changes, and analysing the causes for those differences. We will use this analysis of causes as input to following research in which the individual contributions of a selection of those causes will be quantitatively analysed
Evaluation of methods for determining hardware projected life
An investigation of existing methods of predicting hardware life is summarized by reviewing programs having long life requirements, current research efforts on long life problems, and technical papers reporting work on life predicting techniques. The results indicate that there are no accurate quantitative means to predict hardware life for system level hardware. The effectiveness of test programs and the cause of hardware failures is considered
A dynamic systems engineering methodology research study. Phase 2: Evaluating methodologies, tools, and techniques for applicability to NASA's systems projects
A study of NASA's Systems Management Policy (SMP) concluded that the primary methodology being used by the Mission Operations and Data Systems Directorate and its subordinate, the Networks Division, is very effective. Still some unmet needs were identified. This study involved evaluating methodologies, tools, and techniques with the potential for resolving the previously identified deficiencies. Six preselected methodologies being used by other organizations with similar development problems were studied. The study revealed a wide range of significant differences in structure. Each system had some strengths but none will satisfy all of the needs of the Networks Division. Areas for improvement of the methodology being used by the Networks Division are listed with recommendations for specific action
- ā¦