Predictive models for multibiometric systems

Recognizing a subject given a set of biometrics is a fundamental pattern recognition problem. This paper builds novel statistical models for multibiometric systems using geometric and multinomial distributions. These models are generic as they are only based on the similarity scores produced by a recognition system. They predict the bounds on the range of indices within which a test subject is likely to be present in a sorted set of similarity scores. These bounds are then used in the multibiometric recognition system to predict a smaller subset of subjects from the database as probable candidates for a given test subject. Experimental results show that the proposed models enhance the recognition rate beyond the underlying matching algorithms for multiple face views, fingerprints, palm prints, irises and their combinations

Predicting the hypervelocity star population in Gaia

Hypervelocity stars (HVSs) are amongst the fastest objects in our Milky Way. These stars are predicted to come from the Galactic center (GC) and travel along unbound orbits across the Galaxy. In the coming years, the ESA satellite Gaia will provide the most complete and accurate catalogue of the Milky Way, with full astrometric parameters for more than $1$ billion stars. In this paper, we present the expected sample size and properties (mass, magnitude, spatial, velocity distributions) of HVSs in the Gaia stellar catalogue. We build three Gaia mock catalogues of HVSs anchored to current observations, exploring different ejection mechanisms and GC stellar population properties. In all cases, we predict hundreds to thousands of HVSs with precise proper motion measurements within a few tens of kpc from us. For stars with a relative error in total proper motion below $10 \%$, the mass range extends to ~$10 M_{\odot}$ but peaks at ~$1$ $M_\odot$. The majority of Gaia HVSs will therefore probe a different mass and distance range compared to the current non-Gaia sample. In addition, a subset of a few hundreds to a few thousands of HVSs with $M$ ~ $3$ $M_\odot$ will be bright enough to have a precise measurement of the three-dimensional velocity from Gaia alone. Finally, we show that Gaia will provide more precise proper motion measurements for the current sample of HVS candidates. This will help identifying their birthplace narrowing down their ejection location, and confirming or rejecting their nature as HVSs. Overall, our forecasts are extremely encouraging in terms of quantity and quality of HVS data that can be exploited to constrain both the Milky Way potential and the GC properties.Comment: 17 pages, 18 figures, accepted for publication in MNRA

A Simple Generative Model of Collective Online Behaviour

Human activities increasingly take place in online environments, providing novel opportunities for relating individual behaviours to population-level outcomes. In this paper, we introduce a simple generative model for the collective behaviour of millions of social networking site users who are deciding between different software applications. Our model incorporates two distinct components: one is associated with recent decisions of users, and the other reflects the cumulative popularity of each application. Importantly, although various combinations of the two mechanisms yield long-time behaviour that is consistent with data, the only models that reproduce the observed temporal dynamics are those that strongly emphasize the recent popularity of applications over their cumulative popularity. This demonstrates---even when using purely observational data without experimental design---that temporal data-driven modelling can effectively distinguish between competing microscopic mechanisms, allowing us to uncover new aspects of collective online behaviour.Comment: Updated, with new figures and Supplementary Informatio

Predicting Avian Influenza Co-Infection with H5N1 and H9N2 in Northern Egypt.

Human outbreaks with avian influenza have been, so far, constrained by poor viral adaptation to non-avian hosts. This could be overcome via co-infection, whereby two strains share genetic material, allowing new hybrid strains to emerge. Identifying areas where co-infection is most likely can help target spaces for increased surveillance. Ecological niche modeling using remotely-sensed data can be used for this purpose. H5N1 and H9N2 influenza subtypes are endemic in Egyptian poultry. From 2006 to 2015, over 20,000 poultry and wild birds were tested at farms and live bird markets. Using ecological niche modeling we identified environmental, behavioral, and population characteristics of H5N1 and H9N2 niches within Egypt. Niches differed markedly by subtype. The subtype niches were combined to model co-infection potential with known occurrences used for validation. The distance to live bird markets was a strong predictor of co-infection. Using only single-subtype influenza outbreaks and publicly available ecological data, we identified areas of co-infection potential with high accuracy (area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) 0.991)

Modeling uncertainties in performance of object recognition

Efficient probability modeling is indispensable for uncertainty quantification of the recognition data. If the model assumptions do not reflect the intrinsic nature of data and associated random variables, then a strong performance measure will most likely fail to come up with a correct match for recognition. In this paper we propose the probability models for two kinds of data obtained with two distinct goals of recognition: identification and discovery. We consider both frequentisi and Bayesian approaches for drawing inferences from the data

State Dependence of Stimulus-Induced Variability Tuning in Macaque MT

Behavioral states marked by varying levels of arousal and attention modulate some properties of cortical responses (e.g. average firing rates or pairwise correlations), yet it is not fully understood what drives these response changes and how they might affect downstream stimulus decoding. Here we show that changes in state modulate the tuning of response variance-to-mean ratios (Fano factors) in a fashion that is neither predicted by a Poisson spiking model nor changes in the mean firing rate, with a substantial effect on stimulus discriminability. We recorded motion-sensitive neurons in middle temporal cortex (MT) in two states: alert fixation and light, opioid anesthesia. Anesthesia tended to lower average spike counts, without decreasing trial-to-trial variability compared to the alert state. Under anesthesia, within-trial fluctuations in excitability were correlated over longer time scales compared to the alert state, creating supra-Poisson Fano factors. In contrast, alert-state MT neurons have higher mean firing rates and largely sub-Poisson variability that is stimulus-dependent and cannot be explained by firing rate differences alone. The absence of such stimulus-induced variability tuning in the anesthetized state suggests different sources of variability between states. A simple model explains state-dependent shifts in the distribution of observed Fano factors via a suppression in the variance of gain fluctuations in the alert state. A population model with stimulus-induced variability tuning and behaviorally constrained information-limiting correlations explores the potential enhancement in stimulus discriminability by the cortical population in the alert state.Comment: 36 pages, 18 figure

Searching for collective behavior in a network of real neurons

Maximum entropy models are the least structured probability distributions that exactly reproduce a chosen set of statistics measured in an interacting network. Here we use this principle to construct probabilistic models which describe the correlated spiking activity of populations of up to 120 neurons in the salamander retina as it responds to natural movies. Already in groups as small as 10 neurons, interactions between spikes can no longer be regarded as small perturbations in an otherwise independent system; for 40 or more neurons pairwise interactions need to be supplemented by a global interaction that controls the distribution of synchrony in the population. Here we show that such "K-pairwise" models--being systematic extensions of the previously used pairwise Ising models--provide an excellent account of the data. We explore the properties of the neural vocabulary by: 1) estimating its entropy, which constrains the population's capacity to represent visual information; 2) classifying activity patterns into a small set of metastable collective modes; 3) showing that the neural codeword ensembles are extremely inhomogenous; 4) demonstrating that the state of individual neurons is highly predictable from the rest of the population, allowing the capacity for error correction.Comment: 24 pages, 19 figure