Early Prediction of Movie Box Office Success based on Wikipedia Activity Big Data

Use of socially generated "big data" to access information about collective states of the minds in human societies has become a new paradigm in the emerging field of computational social science. A natural application of this would be the prediction of the society's reaction to a new product in the sense of popularity and adoption rate. However, bridging the gap between "real time monitoring" and "early predicting" remains a big challenge. Here we report on an endeavor to build a minimalistic predictive model for the financial success of movies based on collective activity data of online users. We show that the popularity of a movie can be predicted much before its release by measuring and analyzing the activity level of editors and viewers of the corresponding entry to the movie in Wikipedia, the well-known online encyclopedia.Comment: 13 pages, Including Supporting Information, 7 Figures, Download the dataset from: http://wwm.phy.bme.hu/SupplementaryDataS1.zi

Evaluation of spoken document retrieval for historic speech collections

The re-use of spoken word audio collections maintained by audiovisual archives is severely hindered by their generally limited access. The CHoral project, which is part of the CATCH program funded by the Dutch Research Council, aims to provide users of speech archives with online, instead of on-location, access to relevant fragments, instead of full documents. To meet this goal, a spoken document retrieval framework is being developed. In this paper the evaluation efforts undertaken so far to assess and improve various aspects of the framework are presented. These efforts include (i) evaluation of the automatically generated textual representations of the spoken word documents that enable word-based search, (ii) the development of measures to estimate the quality of the textual representations for use in information retrieval, and (iii) studies to establish the potential user groups of the to-be-developed technology, and the first versions of the user interface supporting online access to spoken word collections

Are All Successful Communities Alike? Characterizing and Predicting the Success of Online Communities

The proliferation of online communities has created exciting opportunities to study the mechanisms that explain group success. While a growing body of research investigates community success through a single measure -- typically, the number of members -- we argue that there are multiple ways of measuring success. Here, we present a systematic study to understand the relations between these success definitions and test how well they can be predicted based on community properties and behaviors from the earliest period of a community's lifetime. We identify four success measures that are desirable for most communities: (i) growth in the number of members; (ii) retention of members; (iii) long term survival of the community; and (iv) volume of activities within the community. Surprisingly, we find that our measures do not exhibit very high correlations, suggesting that they capture different types of success. Additionally, we find that different success measures are predicted by different attributes of online communities, suggesting that success can be achieved through different behaviors. Our work sheds light on the basic understanding of what success represents in online communities and what predicts it. Our results suggest that success is multi-faceted and cannot be measured nor predicted by a single measurement. This insight has practical implications for the creation of new online communities and the design of platforms that facilitate such communities.Comment: To appear at The Web Conference 201

A Novel Distributed Representation of News (DRNews) for Stock Market Predictions

In this study, a novel Distributed Representation of News (DRNews) model is developed and applied in deep learning-based stock market predictions. With the merit of integrating contextual information and cross-documental knowledge, the DRNews model creates news vectors that describe both the semantic information and potential linkages among news events through an attributed news network. Two stock market prediction tasks, namely the short-term stock movement prediction and stock crises early warning, are implemented in the framework of the attention-based Long Short Term-Memory (LSTM) network. It is suggested that DRNews substantially enhances the results of both tasks comparing with five baselines of news embedding models. Further, the attention mechanism suggests that short-term stock trend and stock market crises both receive influences from daily news with the former demonstrates more critical responses on the information related to the stock market {\em per se}, whilst the latter draws more concerns on the banking sector and economic policies.Comment: 25 page

Hierarchically Structured Reinforcement Learning for Topically Coherent Visual Story Generation

We propose a hierarchically structured reinforcement learning approach to address the challenges of planning for generating coherent multi-sentence stories for the visual storytelling task. Within our framework, the task of generating a story given a sequence of images is divided across a two-level hierarchical decoder. The high-level decoder constructs a plan by generating a semantic concept (i.e., topic) for each image in sequence. The low-level decoder generates a sentence for each image using a semantic compositional network, which effectively grounds the sentence generation conditioned on the topic. The two decoders are jointly trained end-to-end using reinforcement learning. We evaluate our model on the visual storytelling (VIST) dataset. Empirical results from both automatic and human evaluations demonstrate that the proposed hierarchically structured reinforced training achieves significantly better performance compared to a strong flat deep reinforcement learning baseline.Comment: Accepted to AAAI 201