Complementary frailty and mortality prediction models on older patients as a tool for assessing palliative care needs

[EN] Palliative care (PC) has demonstrated benefits for life-limiting illnesses. Bad survival prognosis and patients' decline are working criteria to guide PC decision-making for older patients. Still, there is not a clear consensus on when to initiate early PC. This work aims to propose machine learning approaches to predict frailty and mortality in older patients in supporting PC decision-making. Predictive models based on Gradient Boosting Machines (GBM) and Deep Neural Networks (DNN) were implemented for binary 1-year mortality classification, survival estimation and 1-year frailty classification. Besides, we tested the similarity between mortality and frailty distributions. The 1-year mortality classifier achieved an Area Under the Curve Receiver Operating Characteristic (AUC ROC) of 0.87 [0.86, 0.87], whereas the mortality regression model achieved an mean absolute error (MAE) of 333.13 [323.10, 342.49] days. Moreover, the 1-year frailty classifier obtained an AUC ROC of 0.89 [0.88, 0.90]. Mortality and frailty criteria were weakly correlated and had different distributions, which can be interpreted as these assessment measurements are complementary for PC decision-making. This study provides new models that can be part of decision-making systems for PC services in older patients after their external validation.The author(s) disclosed receipt of the following financial support for the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article: This work was supported by the InAdvance project (H2020-SC1-BHC-2018-2020 No. 825750).Blanes-Selva, V.; Doñate-Martínez, A.; Linklater, G.; Garcia-Gomez, JM. (2022). Complementary frailty and mortality prediction models on older patients as a tool for assessing palliative care needs. Health Informatics Journal. 28(2):1-18. https://doi.org/10.1177/1460458222109259211828

Automatic Speech Classifier for Mild Cognitive Impairment and Early Dementia

none5noThe World Health Organization estimates that 50 million people are currently living with dementia worldwide and this figure will almost triple by 2050. Current pharmacological treatments are only symptomatic, and drugs or other therapies are ineffective in slowing down or curing the neurodegenerative process at the basis of dementia. Therefore, early detection of cognitive decline is of the utmost importance to respond significantly and deliver preventive interventions. Recently, the researchers showed that speech alterations might be one of the earliest signs of cognitive defect, observable well in advance before other cognitive deficits become manifest. In this article, we propose a full automated method able to classify the audio file of the subjects according to the progress level of the pathology. In particular, we trained a specific type of artificial neural network, called autoencoder, using the visual representation of the audio signal of the subjects, that is, the spectrogram. Moreover, we used a data augmentation approach to overcome the problem of the large amount of annotated data usually required during the training phase, which represents one of the most major obstacles in deep learning. We evaluated the proposed method using a dataset of 288 audio files from 96 subjects: 48 healthy controls and 48 cognitively impaired participants. The proposed method obtained good classification results compared to the state-of-the-art neuropsychological screening tests and, with an accuracy of 90.57%, outperformed the methods based on manual transcription and annotation of speech.mixedBertini, Flavio; Allevi, Davide; Lutero, Gianluca; Montesi, Danilo; Calzà, LauraBertini, Flavio; Allevi, Davide; Lutero, Gianluca; Montesi, Danilo; Calzà, Laur

Clinical Decision Support Systems for Palliative Care Referral: Design and Evaluation of Frailty and Mortality Predictive Models

[ES] Los Cuidados Paliativos (PC) son cuidados médicos especializados cuyo objetivo esmejorar la calidad de vida de los pacientes con enfermedades graves. Históricamente,se han aplicado a los pacientes en fase terminal, especialmente a los que tienen undiagnóstico oncológico. Sin embargo, los resultados de las investigaciones actualessugieren que la PC afecta positivamente a la calidad de vida de los pacientes condiferentes enfermedades. La tendencia actual sobre la PC es incluir a pacientes nooncológicos con afecciones como la EPOC, la insuficiencia de funciones orgánicas ola demencia. Sin embargo, la identificación de los pacientes con esas necesidades escompleja, por lo que se requieren herramientas alternativas basadas en datos clínicos. La creciente demanda de PC puede beneficiarse de una herramienta de cribadopara identificar a los pacientes con necesidades de PC durante el ingreso hospitalario.Se han propuesto varias herramientas, como la Pregunta Sorpresa (SQ) o la creaciónde diferentes índices y puntuaciones, con distintos grados de éxito. Recientemente,el uso de algoritmos de inteligencia artificial, en concreto de Machine Learning (ML), ha surgido como una solución potencial dada su capacidad de aprendizaje a partirde las Historias Clínicas Electrónicas (EHR) y con la expectativa de proporcionarpredicciones precisas para el ingreso en programas de PC. Esta tesis se centra en la creación de herramientas digitales basadas en ML para la identificación de pacientes con necesidades de cuidados paliativos en el momento del ingreso hospitalario. Hemos utilizado la mortalidad y la fragilidad como los dos criterios clínicos para la toma de decisiones, siendo la corta supervivencia y el aumento de la fragilidad, nuestros objetivos para hacer predicciones. También nos hemos centrado en la implementación de estas herramientas en entornos clínicos y en el estudio de su usabilidad y aceptación en los flujos de trabajo clínicos. Para lograr estos objetivos, en primer lugar, estudiamos y comparamos algoritmos de ML para la supervivencia a un año en pacientes adultos durante el ingreso hospitalario. Para ello, definimos una variable binaria a predecir, equivalente a la SQ y definimos el conjunto de variables predictivas basadas en la literatura. Comparamos modelos basados en Support Vector Machine (SVM), k-Nearest Neighbours (kNN), Random Forest (RF), Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM) y Multilayer Perceptron (MLP), atendiendo a su rendimiento, especialmente al Área bajo la curva ROC (AUC ROC). Además, obtuvimos información sobre la importancia de las variables para los modelos basados en árboles utilizando el criterio GINI. En segundo lugar, estudiamos la medición de la fragilidad de la calidad de vida(QoL) en los candidatos a la intervención en PC. Para este segundo estudio, redujimosla franja de edad de la población a pacientes ancianos (≥ 65 años) como grupo objetivo. A continuación, creamos tres modelos diferentes: 1) la adaptación del modelo demortalidad a un año para pacientes ancianos, 2) un modelo de regresión para estimarel número de días desde el ingreso hasta la muerte para complementar los resultadosdel primer modelo, y finalmente, 3) un modelo predictivo del estado de fragilidad aun año. Estos modelos se compartieron con la comunidad académica a través de unaaplicación web b que permite la entrada de datos y muestra la predicción de los tresmodelos y unos gráficos con la importancia de las variables. En tercer lugar, propusimos una versión del modelo de mortalidad a un año enforma de calculadora online. Esta versión se diseñó para maximizar el acceso de losprofesionales minimizando los requisitos de datos y haciendo que el software respondiera a las plataformas tecnológicas actuales. Así pues, se eliminaron las variablesadministrativas específicas de la fuente de datos y se trabajó en un proceso para minimizar las variables de entrada requeridas, manteniendo al mismo tiempo un ROCAUC elevado del modelo. Como resultado, e[CA] Les Cures Pal·liatives (PC) són cures mèdiques especialitzades l'objectiu de les qualsés millorar la qualitat de vida dels pacients amb malalties greus. Històricament, s'hanaplicat als pacients en fase terminal, especialment als quals tenen un diagnòstic oncològic. No obstant això, els resultats de les investigacions actuals suggereixen que lesPC afecten positivament a la qualitat de vida dels pacients amb diferents malalties. Latendència actual sobre les PC és incloure a pacients no oncològics amb afeccions comla malaltia pulmonar obstructiva crònica, la insuficiència de funcions orgàniques o lademència. No obstant això, la identificació dels pacients amb aqueixes necessitats éscomplexa, per la qual cosa es requereixen eines alternatives basades en dades clíniques. La creixent demanda de PC pot beneficiar-se d'una eina de garbellat per a identificar als pacients amb necessitats de PC durant l'ingrés hospitalari. S'han proposatdiverses eines, com la Pregunta Sorpresa (SQ) o la creació de diferents índexs i puntuacions, amb diferents graus d'èxit. Recentment, l'ús d'algorismes d'intel·ligènciaartificial, en concret de Machine Learning (ML), ha sorgit com una potencial soluciódonada la seua capacitat d'aprenentatge a partir de les Històries Clíniques Electròniques (EHR) i amb l'expectativa de proporcionar prediccions precises per a l'ingrés enprogrames de PC. Aquesta tesi se centra en la creació d'eines digitals basades en MLper a la identificació de pacients amb necessitats de cures pal·liatives durant l'ingréshospitalari. Hem utilitzat mortalitat i fragilitat com els dos criteris clínics per a lapresa de decisions, sent la curta supervivència i la major fragilitat els nostres objectiusa predir. Després, ens hem centrat en la seua implementació en entorns clínics i hemestudiat la seua usabilitat i acceptació en els fluxos de treball clínics.Aquesta tesi se centra en la creació d'eines digitals basades en ML per a la identificació de pacients amb necessitats de cures pal·liatives en el moment de l'ingrés hospitalari. Hem utilitzat la mortalitat i la fragilitat com els dos criteris clínics per ala presa de decisions, sent la curta supervivència i l'augment de la fragilitat, els nostresobjectius per a fer prediccions. També ens hem centrat en la implementació d'aquesteseines en entorns clínics i en l'estudi de la seua usabilitat i acceptació en els fluxos detreball clínics. Per a aconseguir aquests objectius, en primer lloc, estudiem i comparem algorismesde ML per a la supervivència a un any en pacients adults durant l'ingrés hospitalari.Per a això, definim una variable binària a predir, equivalent a la SQ i definim el conjuntde variables predictives basades en la literatura. Comparem models basats en Support Vector Machine (SVM), k-Nearest Neighbours (kNN), Random Forest (RF), Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM) i Multilayer Perceptron (MLP), atenent el seu rendiment,especialment a l'Àrea sota la corba ROC (AUC ROC). A més, vam obtindre informaciósobre la importància de les variables per als models basats en arbres utilitzant el criteri GINI. En segon lloc, estudiem el mesurament de la fragilitat de la qualitat de vida (QoL)en els candidats a la intervenció en PC. Per a aquest segon estudi, vam reduir lafranja d'edat de la població a pacients ancians (≥ 65 anys) com a grup objectiu. Acontinuació, creem tres models diferents: 1) l'adaptació del model de mortalitat a unany per a pacients ancians, 2) un model de regressió per a estimar el nombre de dies desde l'ingrés fins a la mort per a complementar els resultats del primer model, i finalment,3) un model predictiu de l'estat de fragilitat a un any. Aquests models es van compartiramb la comunitat acadèmica a través d'una aplicació web c que permet l'entrada dedades i mostra la predicció dels tres models i uns gràfics amb la importància de lesvariables. En tercer lloc, vam proposar una versió del model de mortalitat a un any en formade calculadora en línia. Aquesta versió es va di[EN] Palliative Care (PC) is specialized medical care that aims to improve patients' quality of life with serious illnesses. Historically, it has been applied to terminally ill patients, especially those with oncologic diagnoses. However, current research results suggest that PC positively affects the quality of life of patients with different conditions. The current trend on PC is to include non-oncological patients with conditions such as Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD), organ function failure or dementia. However, the identification of patients with those needs is complex, and therefore alternative tools based on clinical data are required. The growing demand for PC may benefit from a screening tool to identify patients with PC needs during hospital admission. Several tools, such as the Surprise Question (SQ) or the creation of different indexes and scores, have been proposed with varying degrees of success. Recently, the use of artificial intelligence algorithms, specifically Machine Learning (ML), has arisen as a potential solution given their capacity to learn from the Electronic Health Records (EHRs) and with the expectation to provide accurate predictions for admission to PC programs. This thesis focuses on creating ML-based digital tools for identifying patients with palliative care needs at hospital admission. We have used mortality and frailty as the two clinical criteria for decision-making, being short survival and increased frailty, as our targets to make predictions. We also have focused on implementing these tools in clinical settings and studying their usability and acceptance in clinical workflows. To accomplish these objectives, first, we studied and compared ML algorithms for one-year survival in adult patients during hospital admission. To do so, we defined a binary variable to predict, equivalent to the SQ and defined the set of predictive variables based on literature. We compared models based on Support Vector Machine (SVM), k-Nearest Neighbours (kNN), Random Forest (RF), Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM) and Multilayer Perceptron (MLP), attending to their performance, especially to the Area under the ROC curve (AUC ROC). Additionally, we obtained information on the importance of variables for tree-based models using the GINI criterion. Second, we studied frailty measurement of Quality of Life (QoL) in candidates for PC intervention. For this second study, we narrowed the age of the population to elderly patients (≥ 65 years) as the target group. Then we created three different models: 1) for the adaptation of the one-year mortality model for elderly patients, 2) a regression model to estimate the number of days from admission to death to complement the results of the first model, and finally, 3) a predictive model for frailty status at one year. These models were shared with the academic community through a web application a that allows data input and shows the prediction from the three models and some graphs with the importance of the variables. Third, we proposed a version of the 1-year mortality model in the form of an online calculator. This version was designed to maximize access from professionals by minimizing data requirements and making the software responsive to the current technological platforms. So we eliminated the administrative variables specific to the dataset source and worked on a process to minimize the required input variables while maintaining high the model's AUC ROC. As a result, this model retained most of the predictive power and required only seven bed-side inputs. Finally, we evaluated the Clinical Decision Support System (CDSS) web tool on PC with an actual set of users. This evaluation comprised three domains: evaluation of participant's predictions against the ML baseline, the usability of the graphical interface, and user experience measurement. A first evaluation was performed, followed by a period of implementation of improvements and corrections to the plaBlanes Selva, V. (2022). Clinical Decision Support Systems for Palliative Care Referral: Design and Evaluation of Frailty and Mortality Predictive Models [Tesis doctoral]. Universitat Politècnica de València. https://doi.org/10.4995/Thesis/10251/19099

Predicting Frailty Condition in Elderly Using Multidimensional Socioclinical Databases

Smart cities face the challenge of combining sustainable national welfare with high living standards. In the last decades, life expectancy increased globally, leading to various age-related issues in almost all developed countries. Frailty affects elderly who are experiencing daily life limitations due to cognitive and functional impairments and represents a remarkable burden for national health systems. In this paper, we proposed two different predictive models for frailty by exploiting 12 socioclinical databases. Emergency hospitalization or all-cause mortality within a year were used as surrogates of frailty. The first model was able to assign a frailty risk score to each subject older than 65 years old, identifying five different classes for tailor made interventions. The second prediction model assigned a worsening risk score to each subject in the first nonfrail class, namely the probability to move in a higher frailty class within the year. We conducted a retrospective cohort study based on the whole elderly population of the Municipality of Bologna, Italy. We created a baseline cohort of 95 368 subjects for the frailty risk model and a baseline cohort of 58 789 subjects for the worsening risk model, respectively. To evaluate the predictive ability of our models through calibration and discrimination estimates, we used, respectively, a six-year and a four-year observation period. Good discriminatory power and calibration were obtained, demonstrating a good predictive ability of the models