Enhancement of Epidemiological Models for Dengue Fever Based on Twitter Data

Epidemiological early warning systems for dengue fever rely on up-to-date epidemiological data to forecast future incidence. However, epidemiological data typically requires time to be available, due to the application of time-consuming laboratorial tests. This implies that epidemiological models need to issue predictions with larger antecedence, making their task even more difficult. On the other hand, online platforms, such as Twitter or Google, allow us to obtain samples of users' interaction in near real-time and can be used as sensors to monitor current incidence. In this work, we propose a framework to exploit online data sources to mitigate the lack of up-to-date epidemiological data by obtaining estimates of current incidence, which are then explored by traditional epidemiological models. We show that the proposed framework obtains more accurate predictions than alternative approaches, with statistically better results for delays greater or equal to 4 weeks.Comment: ACM Digital Health 201

Expanding a Database of Portuguese Tweets

This paper describes an existing database of geolocated tweets that were produced in Portuguese regions and proposes an approach to further expand it. The existing database covers eight consecutive days of collected tweets, totaling about 300 thousand tweets, produced by about 11 thousand different users. A detailed analysis on the content of the messages suggests a predominance of young authors that use Twitter as a way of reaching their colleagues with their feelings, ideas and comments. In order to further characterize this community of young people, we propose a method for retrieving additional tweets produced by the same set of authors already in the database. Our goal is to further extend the knowledge about each user of this community, making it possible to automatically characterize each user by the content he/she produces, cluster users and open other possibilities in the scope of social analysis

Global disease monitoring and forecasting with Wikipedia

Infectious disease is a leading threat to public health, economic stability, and other key social structures. Efforts to mitigate these impacts depend on accurate and timely monitoring to measure the risk and progress of disease. Traditional, biologically-focused monitoring techniques are accurate but costly and slow; in response, new techniques based on social internet data such as social media and search queries are emerging. These efforts are promising, but important challenges in the areas of scientific peer review, breadth of diseases and countries, and forecasting hamper their operational usefulness. We examine a freely available, open data source for this use: access logs from the online encyclopedia Wikipedia. Using linear models, language as a proxy for location, and a systematic yet simple article selection procedure, we tested 14 location-disease combinations and demonstrate that these data feasibly support an approach that overcomes these challenges. Specifically, our proof-of-concept yields models with $r^2$ up to 0.92, forecasting value up to the 28 days tested, and several pairs of models similar enough to suggest that transferring models from one location to another without re-training is feasible. Based on these preliminary results, we close with a research agenda designed to overcome these challenges and produce a disease monitoring and forecasting system that is significantly more effective, robust, and globally comprehensive than the current state of the art.Comment: 27 pages; 4 figures; 4 tables. Version 2: Cite McIver & Brownstein and adjust novelty claims accordingly; revise title; various revisions for clarit

Using geolocated tweets for characterization of Twitter in Portugal and the Portuguese administrative regions

The information published by the millions of public social network users is an important source of knowledge that can be used in academic, socioeconomic or demographic studies (distribution of male and female population, age, marital status, birth), lifestyle analysis (interests, hobbies, social habits) or be used to study online behavior (time spent online, interaction with friends or discussion about brands, products or politics). This work uses a database of about 27 million Portuguese geolocated tweets, produced in Portugal by 97.8 K users during a 1-year period, to extract information about the behavior of the geolocated Portuguese Twitter community and show that with this information it is possible to extract overall indicators such as: the daily periods of increased activity per region; prediction of regions where the concentration of the population is higher or lower in certain periods of the year; how do regional habitants feel about life; or what is talked about in each region. We also analyze the behavior of the geolocated Portuguese Twitter users based on the tweeted contents, and find indications that their behavior differs in certain relevant aspect from other Twitter communities, hypothesizing that this is in part due to the abnormal high percentage of young teenagers in the community. Finally, we present a small case study on Portuguese tourism in the Algarve region. To the best of our knowledge, this work is the first study that shows geolocated Portuguese users' behavior in Twitter focusing on geographic regional use.info:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersio

MISNIS: an intelligent platform for Twitter topic mining

Twitter has become a major tool for spreading news, for dissemination of positions and ideas, and for the commenting and analysis of current world events. However, with more than 500 million tweets flowing per day, it is necessary to find efficient ways of collecting, storing, managing, mining and visualizing all this information. This is especially relevant if one considers that Twitter has no ways of indexing tweet contents, and that the only available categorization “mechanism” is the #hashtag, which is totally dependent of a user's will to use it. This paper presents an intelligent platform and framework, named MISNIS - Intelligent Mining of Public Social Networks’ Influence in Society - that facilitates these issues and allows a non-technical user to easily mine a given topic from a very large tweet's corpus and obtain relevant contents and indicators such as user influence or sentiment analysis. When compared to other existent similar platforms, MISNIS is an expert system that includes specifically developed intelligent techniques that: (1) Circumvent the Twitter API restrictions that limit access to 1% of all flowing tweets. The platform has been able to collect more than 80% of all flowing portuguese language tweets in Portugal when online; (2) Intelligently retrieve most tweets related to a given topic even when the tweets do not contain the topic #hashtag or user indicated keywords. A 40% increase in the number of retrieved relevant tweets has been reported in real world case studies. The platform is currently focused on Portuguese language tweets posted in Portugal. However, most developed technologies are language independent (e.g. intelligent retrieval, sentiment analysis, etc.), and technically MISNIS can be easily expanded to cover other languages and locations

Identifying methods for monitoring foodborne illness: review of existing public health surveillance techniques

Background: Traditional methods of monitoring foodborne illness are associated with problems of untimeliness and underreporting. In recent years, alternative data sources such as social media data have been used to monitor the incidence of disease in the population (infodemiology and infoveillance). These data sources prove timelier than traditional general practitioner data, they can help to fill the gaps in the reporting process, and they often include additional metadata that is useful for supplementary research. Objective: The aim of the study was to identify and formally analyze research papers using consumer-generated data, such as social media data or restaurant reviews, to quantify a disease or public health ailment. Studies of this nature are scarce within the food safety domain, therefore identification and understanding of transferrable methods in other health-related fields are of particular interest. Methods: Structured scoping methods were used to identify and analyze primary research papers using consumer-generated data for disease or public health surveillance. The title, abstract, and keyword fields of 5 databases were searched using predetermined search terms. A total of 5239 papers matched the search criteria, of which 145 were taken to full-text review—62 papers were deemed relevant and were subjected to data characterization and thematic analysis. Results: The majority of studies (40/62, 65%) focused on the surveillance of influenza-like illness. Only 10 studies (16%) used consumer-generated data to monitor outbreaks of foodborne illness. Twitter data (58/62, 94%) and Yelp reviews (3/62, 5%) were the most commonly used data sources. Studies reporting high correlations against baseline statistics used advanced statistical and computational approaches to calculate the incidence of disease. These include classification and regression approaches, clustering approaches, and lexicon-based approaches. Although they are computationally intensive due to the requirement of training data, studies using classification approaches reported the best performance. Conclusions: By analyzing studies in digital epidemiology, computer science, and public health, this paper has identified and analyzed methods of disease monitoring that can be transferred to foodborne disease surveillance. These methods fall into 4 main categories: basic approach, classification and regression, clustering approaches, and lexicon-based approaches. Although studies using a basic approach to calculate disease incidence generally report good performance against baseline measures, they are sensitive to chatter generated by media reports. More computationally advanced approaches are required to filter spurious messages and protect predictive systems against false alarms. Research using consumer-generated data for monitoring influenza-like illness is expansive; however, research regarding the use of restaurant reviews and social media data in the context of food safety is limited. Considering the advantages reported in this review, methods using consumer-generated data for foodborne disease surveillance warrant further investment

Data and Digital Solutions to Support Surveillance Strategies in the Context of the COVID-19 Pandemic

Background: In order to prevent spread and improve control of infectious diseases, public health experts need to closely monitor human and animal populations. Infectious disease surveillance is an established, routine data collection process essential for early warning, rapid response, and disease control. The quantity of data potentially useful for early warning and surveillance has increased exponentially due to social media and other big data streams. Digital epidemiology is a novel discipline that includes harvesting, analysing, and interpreting data that were not initially collected for healthcare needs to enhance traditional surveillance. During the current COVID-19 pandemic, the importance of digital epidemiology complementing traditional public health approaches has been highlighted. Objective: The aim of this paper is to provide a comprehensive overview for the application of data and digital solutions to support surveillance strategies and draw implications for surveillance in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic and beyond. Methods: A search was conducted in PubMed databases. Articles published between January 2005 and May 2020 on the use of digital solutions to support surveillance strategies in pandemic settings and health emergencies were evaluated. Results: In this paper, we provide a comprehensive overview of digital epidemiology, available data sources, and components of 21st-century digital surveillance, early warning and response, outbreak management and control, and digital interventions. Conclusions: Our main purpose was to highlight the plausible use of new surveillance strategies, with implications for the COVID-19 pandemic strategies and then to identify opportunities and challenges for the successful development and implementation of digital solutions during non-emergency times of routine surveillance, with readiness for early-warning and response for future pandemics. The enhancement of traditional surveillance systems with novel digital surveillance methods opens a direction for the most effective framework for preparedness and response to future pandemics

Google Health Trends performance reflecting dengue incidence for the Brazilian states

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.Background Dengue fever is a mosquito-borne infection transmitted by Aedes aegypti and mainly found in tropical and subtropical regions worldwide. Since its re-introduction in 1986, Brazil has become a hotspot for dengue and has experienced yearly epidemics. As a notifiable infectious disease, Brazil uses a passive epidemiological surveillance system to collect and report cases; however, dengue burden is underestimated. Thus, Internet data streams may complement surveillance activities by providing real-time information in the face of reporting lags. Methods We analyzed 19 terms related to dengue using Google Health Trends (GHT), a free-Internet data-source, and compared it with weekly dengue incidence between 2011 to 2016. We correlated GHT data with dengue incidence at the national and state-level for Brazil while using the adjusted R squared statistic as primary outcome measure (0/1). We used survey data on Internet access and variables from the official census of 2010 to identify where GHT could be useful in tracking dengue dynamics. Finally, we used a standardized volatility index on dengue incidence and developed models with different variables with the same objective. Results From the 19 terms explored with GHT, only seven were able to consistently track dengue. From the 27 states, only 12 reported an adjusted R squared higher than 0.8; these states were distributed mainly in the Northeast, Southeast, and South of Brazil. The usefulness of GHT was explained by the logarithm of the number of Internet users in the last 3 months, the total population per state, and the standardized volatility index. Conclusions The potential contribution of GHT in complementing traditional established surveillance strategies should be analyzed in the context of geographical resolutions smaller than countries. For Brazil, GHT implementation should be analyzed in a case-by-case basis. State variables including total population, Internet usage in the last 3 months, and the standardized volatility index could serve as indicators determining when GHT could complement dengue state level surveillance in other countries

Mining social media data for biomedical signals and health-related behavior

Social media data has been increasingly used to study biomedical and health-related phenomena. From cohort level discussions of a condition to planetary level analyses of sentiment, social media has provided scientists with unprecedented amounts of data to study human behavior and response associated with a variety of health conditions and medical treatments. Here we review recent work in mining social media for biomedical, epidemiological, and social phenomena information relevant to the multilevel complexity of human health. We pay particular attention to topics where social media data analysis has shown the most progress, including pharmacovigilance, sentiment analysis especially for mental health, and other areas. We also discuss a variety of innovative uses of social media data for health-related applications and important limitations in social media data access and use.Comment: To appear in the Annual Review of Biomedical Data Scienc