TFBEST: Dual-Aspect Transformer with Learnable Positional Encoding for Failure Prediction

Hard Disk Drive (HDD) failures in datacenters are costly - from catastrophic data loss to a question of goodwill, stakeholders want to avoid it like the plague. An important tool in proactively monitoring against HDD failure is timely estimation of the Remaining Useful Life (RUL). To this end, the Self-Monitoring, Analysis and Reporting Technology employed within HDDs (S.M.A.R.T.) provide critical logs for long-term maintenance of the security and dependability of these essential data storage devices. Data-driven predictive models in the past have used these S.M.A.R.T. logs and CNN/RNN based architectures heavily. However, they have suffered significantly in providing a confidence interval around the predicted RUL values as well as in processing very long sequences of logs. In addition, some of these approaches, such as those based on LSTMs, are inherently slow to train and have tedious feature engineering overheads. To overcome these challenges, in this work we propose a novel transformer architecture - a Temporal-fusion Bi-encoder Self-attention Transformer (TFBEST) for predicting failures in hard-drives. It is an encoder-decoder based deep learning technique that enhances the context gained from understanding health statistics sequences and predicts a sequence of the number of days remaining before a disk potentially fails. In this paper, we also provide a novel confidence margin statistic that can help manufacturers replace a hard-drive within a time frame. Experiments on Seagate HDD data show that our method significantly outperforms the state-of-the-art RUL prediction methods during testing over the exhaustive 10-year data from Backblaze (2013-present). Although validated on HDD failure prediction, the TFBEST architecture is well-suited for other prognostics applications and may be adapted for allied regression problems.Comment: 9 pages, 6 figures, 2 table

Large-scale End-of-Life Prediction of Hard Disks in Distributed Datacenters

On a daily basis, data centers process huge volumes of data backed by the proliferation of inexpensive hard disks. Data stored in these disks serve a range of critical functional needs from financial, and healthcare to aerospace. As such, premature disk failure and consequent loss of data can be catastrophic. To mitigate the risk of failures, cloud storage providers perform condition-based monitoring and replace hard disks before they fail. By estimating the remaining useful life of hard disk drives, one can predict the time-to-failure of a particular device and replace it at the right time, ensuring maximum utilization whilst reducing operational costs. In this work, large-scale predictive analyses are performed using severely skewed health statistics data by incorporating customized feature engineering and a suite of sequence learners. Past work suggests using LSTMs as an excellent approach to predicting remaining useful life. To this end, we present an encoder-decoder LSTM model where the context gained from understanding health statistics sequences aid in predicting an output sequence of the number of days remaining before a disk potentially fails. The models developed in this work are trained and tested across an exhaustive set of all of the 10 years of S.M.A.R.T. health data in circulation from Backblaze and on a wide variety of disk instances. It closes the knowledge gap on what full-scale training achieves on thousands of devices and advances the state-of-the-art by providing tangible metrics for evaluation and generalization for practitioners looking to extend their workflow to all years of health data in circulation across disk manufacturers. The encoder-decoder LSTM posted an RMSE of 0.83 during training and 0.86 during testing over the exhaustive 10 year data while being able to generalize competitively over other drives from the Seagate family.Comment: 8 pages, 9 figures and 6 table

Online failure prediction in air traffic control systems

This thesis introduces a novel approach to online failure prediction for mission critical distributed systems that has the distinctive features to be black-box, non-intrusive and online. The approach combines Complex Event Processing (CEP) and Hidden Markov Models (HMM) so as to analyze symptoms of failures that might occur in the form of anomalous conditions of performance metrics identified for such purpose. The thesis presents an architecture named CASPER, based on CEP and HMM, that relies on sniffed information from the communication network of a mission critical system, only, for predicting anomalies that can lead to software failures. An instance of Casper has been implemented, trained and tuned to monitor a real Air Traffic Control (ATC) system developed by Selex ES, a Finmeccanica Company. An extensive experimental evaluation of CASPER is presented. The obtained results show (i) a very low percentage of false positives over both normal and under stress conditions, and (ii) a sufficiently high failure prediction time that allows the system to apply appropriate recovery procedures

Online failure prediction in air traffic control systems

This thesis introduces a novel approach to online failure prediction for mission critical distributed systems that has the distinctive features to be black-box, non-intrusive and online. The approach combines Complex Event Processing (CEP) and Hidden Markov Models (HMM) so as to analyze symptoms of failures that might occur in the form of anomalous conditions of performance metrics identified for such purpose. The thesis presents an architecture named CASPER, based on CEP and HMM, that relies on sniffed information from the communication network of a mission critical system, only, for predicting anomalies that can lead to software failures. An instance of Casper has been implemented, trained and tuned to monitor a real Air Traffic Control (ATC) system developed by Selex ES, a Finmeccanica Company. An extensive experimental evaluation of CASPER is presented. The obtained results show (i) a very low percentage of false positives over both normal and under stress conditions, and (ii) a sufficiently high failure prediction time that allows the system to apply appropriate recovery procedures

Hidden Markov Models

Hidden Markov Models (HMMs), although known for decades, have made a big career nowadays and are still in state of development. This book presents theoretical issues and a variety of HMMs applications in speech recognition and synthesis, medicine, neurosciences, computational biology, bioinformatics, seismology, environment protection and engineering. I hope that the reader will find this book useful and helpful for their own research

Multimodal Analytics for Healthcare

The ailing healthcare system demands effective autonomous solutions to improve service and provide individualize care, while reducing the burden on the scarce healthcare workforce. Most of these solutions require a multidisciplinary approach that combines healthcare with computational abilities. The work presented in this thesis introduces a multimodal multiview network along with methods and solutions that leverage inexpensive visual sensors and computers to monitor healthcare. One of the most prominent outcomes of this work includes enabling the medical analysis of ICU conditions such as sleep disorders, decubitus ulcerations, and hospital acquired infections, which are preventable and negatively affect patients' health population. The problems tackled include patient pose classification, pose motion analysis and summarization, role representation and identification, and activity and event logging in natural hospital settings. These problems are addressed via a non-intrusive non-disruptive multimodal multiview sensor network (Medical Internet-of-Things). The multimodal data is combined with coupled-optimization to estimate source weights and accurately classify patient poses. Pose patterns such as pose transitions are represented using deep convolutional features and pose duration is modelled via segments. The proposed techniques serve to differentiate between poses and pseudo-poses (transitory poses) and create effective motion summaries. The role representation is tackled using novel appearance and semantic interaction maps to assign generic labels to individuals (doctor, nurse, visitor, etc) without using identifiable information (e.g., facetracking or badges), which is prohibited in healthcare applications. Finally, activity and event analysis is tackled using a new contextual aspect frames where aspect bases and weights are learned and then used to reconstruct activities. The objective of this thesis is to enable the development, evaluation, and optimization of individualized therapies, standards-of-care, room infrastructural designs, and clinical workflows and procedures