Predictive User Modeling with Actionable Attributes

Different machine learning techniques have been proposed and used for modeling individual and group user needs, interests and preferences. In the traditional predictive modeling instances are described by observable variables, called attributes. The goal is to learn a model for predicting the target variable for unseen instances. For example, for marketing purposes a company consider profiling a new user based on her observed web browsing behavior, referral keywords or other relevant information. In many real world applications the values of some attributes are not only observable, but can be actively decided by a decision maker. Furthermore, in some of such applications the decision maker is interested not only to generate accurate predictions, but to maximize the probability of the desired outcome. For example, a direct marketing manager can choose which type of a special offer to send to a client (actionable attribute), hoping that the right choice will result in a positive response with a higher probability. We study how to learn to choose the value of an actionable attribute in order to maximize the probability of a desired outcome in predictive modeling. We emphasize that not all instances are equally sensitive to changes in actions. Accurate choice of an action is critical for those instances, which are on the borderline (e.g. users who do not have a strong opinion one way or the other). We formulate three supervised learning approaches for learning to select the value of an actionable attribute at an instance level. We also introduce a focused training procedure which puts more emphasis on the situations where varying the action is the most likely to take the effect. The proof of concept experimental validation on two real-world case studies in web analytics and e-learning domains highlights the potential of the proposed approaches

Tripartite Graph Clustering for Dynamic Sentiment Analysis on Social Media

The growing popularity of social media (e.g, Twitter) allows users to easily share information with each other and influence others by expressing their own sentiments on various subjects. In this work, we propose an unsupervised \emph{tri-clustering} framework, which analyzes both user-level and tweet-level sentiments through co-clustering of a tripartite graph. A compelling feature of the proposed framework is that the quality of sentiment clustering of tweets, users, and features can be mutually improved by joint clustering. We further investigate the evolution of user-level sentiments and latent feature vectors in an online framework and devise an efficient online algorithm to sequentially update the clustering of tweets, users and features with newly arrived data. The online framework not only provides better quality of both dynamic user-level and tweet-level sentiment analysis, but also improves the computational and storage efficiency. We verified the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed approaches on the November 2012 California ballot Twitter data.Comment: A short version is in Proceeding of the 2014 ACM SIGMOD International Conference on Management of dat

Parameterized Exercises in Java Programming: using Knowledge Structure for Performance Prediction

In this paper, we study the effect of using domain knowledge structure on predicting student performance with parameterized Java programming exercises. Domain knowledge structure defines connections between elementary knowledge items. While known to be beneficial in general, it has not been used to predict performance.We compare five different approaches for this purpose: Bayesian Knowledge Tracing (BKT), Performance Factor Analysis (PFA), and three dimensional Bayesian Probabilistic Tensor Factorization (3D-BPTF), that are not able to take into account knowledge structure; and four-dimensional Bayesian Probabilistic Tensor Factorization (4D-BPTF) and Feature-Aware Student Knowledge Tracing (FAST), that can take into account knowledge structure. We approach the problem using both topic-level and question-level Knowledge Components (KCs) and test the methods on a dataset of parameterized questions. Our work is the first in the field that models students’ behavior in a four dimensional tensor. Our experiments show that, when having only the knowledge-item-level information, all of the models work similarly in predicting student performance, but adding the topic-level information that integrates knowledge items changes the performance of these models in different directions

How Algorithmic Confounding in Recommendation Systems Increases Homogeneity and Decreases Utility

Recommendation systems are ubiquitous and impact many domains; they have the potential to influence product consumption, individuals' perceptions of the world, and life-altering decisions. These systems are often evaluated or trained with data from users already exposed to algorithmic recommendations; this creates a pernicious feedback loop. Using simulations, we demonstrate how using data confounded in this way homogenizes user behavior without increasing utility

RiPLE: Recommendation in Peer-Learning Environments Based on Knowledge Gaps and Interests

Various forms of Peer-Learning Environments are increasingly being used in post-secondary education, often to help build repositories of student generated learning objects. However, large classes can result in an extensive repository, which can make it more challenging for students to search for suitable objects that both reflect their interests and address their knowledge gaps. Recommender Systems for Technology Enhanced Learning (RecSysTEL) offer a potential solution to this problem by providing sophisticated filtering techniques to help students to find the resources that they need in a timely manner. Here, a new RecSysTEL for Recommendation in Peer-Learning Environments (RiPLE) is presented. The approach uses a collaborative filtering algorithm based upon matrix factorization to create personalized recommendations for individual students that address their interests and their current knowledge gaps. The approach is validated using both synthetic and real data sets. The results are promising, indicating RiPLE is able to provide sensible personalized recommendations for both regular and cold-start users under reasonable assumptions about parameters and user behavior.Comment: 25 pages, 7 figures. The paper is accepted for publication in the Journal of Educational Data Minin