128,799 research outputs found
Are you going to the party: depends, who else is coming? [Learning hidden group dynamics via conditional latent tree models]
Scalable probabilistic modeling and prediction in high dimensional
multivariate time-series is a challenging problem, particularly for systems
with hidden sources of dependence and/or homogeneity. Examples of such problems
include dynamic social networks with co-evolving nodes and edges and dynamic
student learning in online courses. Here, we address these problems through the
discovery of hierarchical latent groups. We introduce a family of Conditional
Latent Tree Models (CLTM), in which tree-structured latent variables
incorporate the unknown groups. The latent tree itself is conditioned on
observed covariates such as seasonality, historical activity, and node
attributes. We propose a statistically efficient framework for learning both
the hierarchical tree structure and the parameters of the CLTM. We demonstrate
competitive performance in multiple real world datasets from different domains.
These include a dataset on students' attempts at answering questions in a
psychology MOOC, Twitter users participating in an emergency management
discussion and interacting with one another, and windsurfers interacting on a
beach in Southern California. In addition, our modeling framework provides
valuable and interpretable information about the hidden group structures and
their effect on the evolution of the time series
A Review on the Application of Natural Computing in Environmental Informatics
Natural computing offers new opportunities to understand, model and analyze
the complexity of the physical and human-created environment. This paper
examines the application of natural computing in environmental informatics, by
investigating related work in this research field. Various nature-inspired
techniques are presented, which have been employed to solve different relevant
problems. Advantages and disadvantages of these techniques are discussed,
together with analysis of how natural computing is generally used in
environmental research.Comment: Proc. of EnviroInfo 201
Capturing Evolution Genes for Time Series Data
The modeling of time series is becoming increasingly critical in a wide
variety of applications. Overall, data evolves by following different patterns,
which are generally caused by different user behaviors. Given a time series, we
define the evolution gene to capture the latent user behaviors and to describe
how the behaviors lead to the generation of time series. In particular, we
propose a uniform framework that recognizes different evolution genes of
segments by learning a classifier, and adopt an adversarial generator to
implement the evolution gene by estimating the segments' distribution.
Experimental results based on a synthetic dataset and five real-world datasets
show that our approach can not only achieve a good prediction results (e.g.,
averagely +10.56% in terms of F1), but is also able to provide explanations of
the results.Comment: a preprint version. arXiv admin note: text overlap with
arXiv:1703.10155 by other author
Overcoming the data crisis in biodiversity conservation
How can we track population trends when monitoring data are sparse? Population declines can go undetected, despite ongoing threats. For example, only one of every 200 harvested species are monitored. This gap leads to uncertainty about the seriousness of declines and hampers effective conservation. Collecting more data is important, but we can also make better use of existing information. Prior knowledge of physiology, life history, and community ecology can be used to inform population models. Additionally, in multispecies models, information can be shared among taxa based on phylogenetic, spatial, or temporal proximity. By exploiting generalities across species that share evolutionary or ecological characteristics within Bayesian hierarchical models, we can fill crucial gaps in the assessment of species’ status with unparalleled quantitative rigor
Early Warning Analysis for Social Diffusion Events
There is considerable interest in developing predictive capabilities for
social diffusion processes, for instance to permit early identification of
emerging contentious situations, rapid detection of disease outbreaks, or
accurate forecasting of the ultimate reach of potentially viral ideas or
behaviors. This paper proposes a new approach to this predictive analytics
problem, in which analysis of meso-scale network dynamics is leveraged to
generate useful predictions for complex social phenomena. We begin by deriving
a stochastic hybrid dynamical systems (S-HDS) model for diffusion processes
taking place over social networks with realistic topologies; this modeling
approach is inspired by recent work in biology demonstrating that S-HDS offer a
useful mathematical formalism with which to represent complex, multi-scale
biological network dynamics. We then perform formal stochastic reachability
analysis with this S-HDS model and conclude that the outcomes of social
diffusion processes may depend crucially upon the way the early dynamics of the
process interacts with the underlying network's community structure and
core-periphery structure. This theoretical finding provides the foundations for
developing a machine learning algorithm that enables accurate early warning
analysis for social diffusion events. The utility of the warning algorithm, and
the power of network-based predictive metrics, are demonstrated through an
empirical investigation of the propagation of political memes over social media
networks. Additionally, we illustrate the potential of the approach for
security informatics applications through case studies involving early warning
analysis of large-scale protests events and politically-motivated cyber
attacks
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