28,399 research outputs found

    And Coyote Howled: Listening to the Call of Interpretive Inquiry

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    In this article, I explore aspects of grief and the surprising mirroring of hermeneutic research and the experience of grief. Neither grief or hermeneutic research are predictable, formulaic, or without surprises, and both require patience, humility, and an openness to what comes to greet us in the nature of aletheia.

    Clues, cues and complexity: unpackuing the concept of organizational surprise

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    We discuss why surprises, defined as events that happen unexpectedly or expected events that take unexpected shapes, are important to organizations and should be considered in the organizational literature. The concept of organizational surprises is unpacked on the basis of a typology built around the (un)expectedeness of issue and process. This typology uncovers the several types of surprising events that organizations may face, and contributes to the literature by suggesting that different surprises require distinct approaches.

    How predictable is Fed policy?

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    Presentation at the University of Washington, Seattle, Oct. 4, 2005Monetary policy

    The transmission of monetary policy shocks

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    Commonly used instruments for the identification of monetary policy disturbances are likely to combine the true policy shock with information about the state of the economy due to the information disclosed through the policy action. We show that this signalling effect of monetary policy can give rise to the empirical puzzles reported in the literature, and propose a new high-frequency instrument for monetary policy shocks that accounts for informational rigidities. We find that a monetary tightening is unequivocally contractionary, with deterioration of domestic demand, labor and credit market conditions, as well as of asset prices and agents' expectations

    Data dependence

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    A speech at the Middle Tennessee State University, Annual Economic Outlook Conference, Murfreesboro, Tenn., Sept. 29, 2006Monetary policy ; Economic forecasting ; Economic indicators

    Data dependence

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    This article was originally presented as a speech at the Middle Tennessee State University Annual Economic Outlook Conference, Murfreesboro, Tennessee, September 29, 2006.Monetary policy ; Economic forecasting ; Economic indicators

    Liquidity Effects in the Bond Market

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    Our paper reports the following two findings: 1) In monthly data, bond purchases by the Fed raise bond prices and reduce bond yields. The residual bond-supply to traders is not fully predictable, and this supply-risk adds between 10 and 40 basis points to the standard deviation of the real interest rate on T-bills. 2) The Fed's open market purchases do not raise stock prices or reduce stock returns. If anything, they raise stock returns. More generally, bonds and stocks do not co-move at high frequencies. To explain these two facts, we model the bond and stock markets as spatially separate or 'segmented'. In the model, bond purchases lower bond rates, but they do not affect stock returns, and this is consistent with both facts.

    Coping with unpleasant surprises in a complex world: Is rational choice possible in a world with positive information costs?

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    This paper provides a rational choice-based analysis of the causes and consequences of surprise events. The paper argues that ignorance may be rational, but nonetheless produce systematic mistakes, inconsistent behavior, and both pleasant and unpleasant surprises. If ignorance and unpleasant surprises are commonplace and relevant for individual and group decisionmaking, we should observe standing institutions for dealing with them - and we do. Insofar as surprises are consistent with rational choice models, but left outside most models, it can be argued that these methodological choices mistakenly limit the scope of rational choicebased research. --Ignorance,Rational Ignorance,Natural Ignorance,Bounded Rationality,Rational Choice,Biased Expectations,Crisis Management,Social Insurance,Bailouts,Economics of Information

    The predictability of monetary policy.

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    Current best practice in central banking views a high level of monetary policy predictability as desirable. A clear distinction, however, has to be made between short-term and longer-term predictability. While short-term predictability can be narrowly defined as the ability of the public to anticipate monetary policy decisions correctly over short horizons, the broader, ultimately more meaningful concept of longerterm predictability also encompasses the ability of the private sector to understand the monetary policy framework of a central bank, i.e. its objectives and systematic behaviour in reacting to different circumstances and contingencies. In this broader sense, longer-term predictability is also closely related to the credibility of the central bank. This paper reviews the main conceptual issues relating to predictability, both in its short and longer-term dimensions, and discusses how a transparent monetary policy strategy can be – and indeed has been – instrumental in achieving this purpose. This latter aspect is investigated in an overview of the empirical literature, highlighting how financial markets have been increasingly able to correctly anticipate monetary policy decisions for a number of large central banks, including the ECB. The paper also reviews several possible empirical proxies for the less-explored concept of longer-term predictability, which is inherently more diffi cult to measure. JEL Classification: E52, E58, E61.Predictability, central bank transparency, central bank communication.
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