10,476 research outputs found
Cross-comparative analysis of evacuation behavior after earthquakes using mobile phone data
Despite the importance of predicting evacuation mobility dynamics after large
scale disasters for effective first response and disaster relief, our general
understanding of evacuation behavior remains limited because of the lack of
empirical evidence on the evacuation movement of individuals across multiple
disaster instances. Here we investigate the GPS trajectories of a total of more
than 1 million anonymized mobile phone users whose positions are tracked for a
period of 2 months before and after four of the major earthquakes that occurred
in Japan. Through a cross comparative analysis between the four disaster
instances, we find that in contrast with the assumed complexity of evacuation
decision making mechanisms in crisis situations, the individuals' evacuation
probability is strongly dependent on the seismic intensity that they
experience. In fact, we show that the evacuation probabilities in all
earthquakes collapse into a similar pattern, with a critical threshold at
around seismic intensity 5.5. This indicates that despite the diversity in the
earthquakes profiles and urban characteristics, evacuation behavior is
similarly dependent on seismic intensity. Moreover, we found that probability
density functions of the distances that individuals evacuate are not dependent
on seismic intensities that individuals experience. These insights from
empirical analysis on evacuation from multiple earthquake instances using large
scale mobility data contributes to a deeper understanding of how people react
to earthquakes, and can potentially assist decision makers to simulate and
predict the number of evacuees in urban areas with little computational time
and cost, by using population density information and seismic intensity which
can be observed instantaneously after the shock
Fundamental structures of dynamic social networks
Social systems are in a constant state of flux with dynamics spanning from
minute-by-minute changes to patterns present on the timescale of years.
Accurate models of social dynamics are important for understanding spreading of
influence or diseases, formation of friendships, and the productivity of teams.
While there has been much progress on understanding complex networks over the
past decade, little is known about the regularities governing the
micro-dynamics of social networks. Here we explore the dynamic social network
of a densely-connected population of approximately 1000 individuals and their
interactions in the network of real-world person-to-person proximity measured
via Bluetooth, as well as their telecommunication networks, online social media
contacts, geo-location, and demographic data. These high-resolution data allow
us to observe social groups directly, rendering community detection
unnecessary. Starting from 5-minute time slices we uncover dynamic social
structures expressed on multiple timescales. On the hourly timescale, we find
that gatherings are fluid, with members coming and going, but organized via a
stable core of individuals. Each core represents a social context. Cores
exhibit a pattern of recurring meetings across weeks and months, each with
varying degrees of regularity. Taken together, these findings provide a
powerful simplification of the social network, where cores represent
fundamental structures expressed with strong temporal and spatial regularity.
Using this framework, we explore the complex interplay between social and
geospatial behavior, documenting how the formation of cores are preceded by
coordination behavior in the communication networks, and demonstrating that
social behavior can be predicted with high precision.Comment: Main Manuscript: 16 pages, 4 figures. Supplementary Information: 39
pages, 34 figure
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