Towards a global land surface climate fiducial reference measurements network

There is overwhelming evidence that the climate system has warmed since the instigation of instrumental meteorological observations. The Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concluded that the evidence for warming was unequivocal. However, owing to imperfect measurements and ubiquitous changes in measurement networks and techniques, there remain uncertainties in many of the details of these historical changes. These uncertainties do not call into question the trend or overall magnitude of the changes in the global climate system. Rather, they act to make the picture less clear than it could be, particularly at the local scale where many decisions regarding adaptation choices will be required, both now and in the future. A set of high-quality long-term fiducial reference measurements of essential climate variables will enable future generations to make rigorous assessments of future climate change and variability, providing society with the best possible information to support future decisions. Here we propose that by implementing and maintaining a suitably stable and metrologically well-characterized global land surface climate fiducial reference measurements network, the present-day scientific community can bequeath to future generations a better set of observations. This will aid future adaptation decisions and help us to monitor and quantify the effectiveness of internationally agreed mitigation steps. This article provides the background, rationale, metrological principles, and practical considerations regarding what would be involved in such a network, and outlines the benefits which may accrue. The challenge, of course, is how to convert such a vision to a long-term sustainable capability providing the necessary well-characterized measurement series to the benefit of global science and future generations

Truss topology optimization using an improved species-conserving genetic algorithm

YesThe aim of this article is to apply and improve the species-conserving genetic algorithm (SCGA) to search multiple solutions of truss topology optimization problems in a single run. A species is defined as a group of individuals with similar characteristics and is dominated by its species seed. The solutions of an optimization problem will be selected from the found species. To improve the accuracy of solutions, a species mutation technique is introduced to improve the fitness of the found species seeds and the combination of a neighbour mutation and a uniform mutation is applied to balance exploitation and exploration. A real vector is used to represent the corresponding cross-sectional areas and a member is thought to be existent if its area is bigger than a critical area. A finite element analysis model was developed to deal with more practical considerations in modelling, such as the existence of members, kinematic stability analysis, and computation of stresses and displacements. Cross-sectional areas and node connections are decision variables and optimized simultaneously to minimize the total weight of trusses. Numerical results demonstrate that some truss topology optimization examples have many global and local solutions, different topologies can be found using the proposed algorithm on a single run and some trusses have smaller weights than the solutions in the literature

Gauge symmetry breaking in gauge theories---In search of clarification

The paper investigates the spontaneous breaking of gauge symmetries in gauge theories from a philosophical angle, taking into account the fact that the notion of a spontaneously broken local gauge symmetry, though widely employed in textbook expositions of the Higgs mechanism, is not supported by our leading theoretical frameworks of gauge quantum theories. In the context of lattice gauge theory, the statement that local gauge symmetry cannot be spontaneously broken can even be made rigorous in the form of Elitzur's theorem. Nevertheless, gauge symmetry breaking does occur in gauge quantum field theories in the form of the breaking of remnant subgroups of the original local gauge group under which the theories typically remain invariant after gauge fixing. The paper discusses the relation between these instances of symmetry breaking and phase transitions and draws some more general conclusions for the philosophical interpretation of gauge symmetries and their breaking.Comment: 30 pages, penultimate version, forthcoming with minor changes in "European Journal for Philosophy of Science

Branch-and-lift algorithm for deterministic global optimization in nonlinear optimal control

This paper presents a branch-and-lift algorithm for solving optimal control problems with smooth nonlinear dynamics and potentially nonconvex objective and constraint functionals to guaranteed global optimality. This algorithm features a direct sequential method and builds upon a generic, spatial branch-and-bound algorithm. A new operation, called lifting, is introduced, which refines the control parameterization via a Gram-Schmidt orthogonalization process, while simultaneously eliminating control subregions that are either infeasible or that provably cannot contain any global optima. Conditions are given under which the image of the control parameterization error in the state space contracts exponentially as the parameterization order is increased, thereby making the lifting operation efficient. A computational technique based on ellipsoidal calculus is also developed that satisfies these conditions. The practical applicability of branch-and-lift is illustrated in a numerical example. © 2013 Springer Science+Business Media New York

Considerations of Accuracy and Uncertainty with Kriging Surrogate Models in Single-Objective Electromagnetic Design Optimization

The high computational cost of evaluating objective functions in electromagnetic optimal design problems necessitates the use of cost-effective techniques. This paper discusses the use of one popular technique, surrogate modelling, with emphasis placed on the importance of considering both the accuracy of, and uncertainty in, the surrogate model. After briefly reviewing how such considerations have been made in the single-objective optimization of electromagnetic devices, their use with kriging surrogate models is investigated. Traditionally, space-filling experimental designs are used to construct the initial kriging model, with the aim to maximize the accuracy of the initial surrogate model, from which the optimization search will start. Utility functions, which balance the predictions made by this model with its uncertainty, are often used to select the next point to be evaluated. In this paper, the performances of several different utility functions are examined using experimental designs which yield initial kriging models of varying degrees of accuracy. It is found that no advantage is necessarily achieved through searching for optima using utility functions on initial kriging models of higher accuracy, and that a reduction in the total number of objective function evaluations may be achieved by starting the iterative optimization search earlier with utility functions on kriging models of lower accuracy. The implications for electromagnetic optimal design are discussed

Distributed multilevel optimization for complex structures

Optimization problems concerning complex structures with many design variables may entail an unacceptable computational cost. This problem can be reduced considerably with a multilevel approach: A structure consisting of several components is optimized as a whole (global) as well as on the component level. In this paper, an optimization method is discussed with applications in the assessment of the impact of new design considerations in the development of a structure. A strategy based on fully stressed design is applied for optimization problems in linear statics. A global model is used to calculate the interactions (e.g., loads) for each of the components. These components are then optimized using the prescribed interactions, followed by a new global calculation to update the interactions. Mixed discrete and continuous design variables as well as different design configurations are possible. An application of this strategy is presented in the form of the full optimization of a vertical tail plane center box of a generic large passenger aircraft. In linear dynamics, the parametrization of the component interactions is problematic due to the frequency dependence. Hence, a modified method is presented in which the speed of component mode synthesis is used to avoid this parametrization. This method is applied to a simple test case that originates from noise control. \u

Some considerations concerning the challenge of incorporating social variables into epidemiological models of infectious disease transmission

Incorporation of ‘social’ variables into epidemiological models remains a challenge. Too much detail and models cease to be useful; too little and the very notion of infection —a highly social process in human populations—may be considered with little reference to the social. The French sociologist Emile Durkheim proposed that the scientific study of society required identification and study of ‘social currents.’ Such ‘currents’ are what we might today describe as ‘emergent properties,’ specifiable variables appertaining to individuals and groups, which represent the perspectives of social actors as they experience the environment in which they live their lives. Here we review the ways in which one particular emergent property, hope, relevant to a range of epidemiological situations, might be used in epidemiological modelling of infectious diseases in human populations. We also indicate how such an approach might be extended to include a range of other potential emergent properties to repre