Use of collateral information to improve LANDSAT classification accuracies

There are no author-identified significant results in this report

A modified weighted log-rank test for confirmatory trials with a high proportion of treatment switching

In confirmatory cancer clinical trials, overall survival (OS) is normally a primary endpoint in the intention-to-treat (ITT) analysis under regulatory standards. After the tumor progresses, it is common that patients allocated to the control group switch to the experimental treatment, or another drug in the same class. Such treatment switching may dilute the relative efficacy of the new drug compared to the control group, leading to lower statistical power. It would be possible to decrease the estimation bias by shortening the follow-up period but this may lead to a loss of information and power. Instead we propose a modified weighted log-rank test (mWLR) that aims at balancing these factors by down-weighting events occurring when many patients have switched treatment. As the weighting should be pre-specified and the impact of treatment switching is unknown, we predict the hazard ratio function and use it to compute the weights of the mWLR. The method may incorporate information from previous trials regarding the potential hazard ratio function over time. We are motivated by the RECORD-1 trial of everolimus against placebo in patients with metastatic renal-cell carcinoma where almost 80\% of the patients in the placebo group received everolimus after disease progression. Extensive simulations show that the new test gives considerably higher efficiency than the standard log-rank test in realistic scenarios

Long-Term Consequences of Secondary School Vouchers: Evidence from Administrative Records in Colombia

Colombia's PACES program provided over 125,000 poor children with vouchers that covered half the cost of private secondary school. The vouchers were renewable annually conditional on adequate academic progress. Since many vouchers were assigned by lottery, program effects can reliably be assessed by comparing lottery winners and losers. Estimates using administrative records suggest the PACES program increased secondary school completion rates by 15-20 percent. Correcting for the greater percentage of lottery winners taking college admissions tests, the program increased test scores by two-tenths of a standard deviation in the distribution of potential test scores. Boys, who have lower scores than girls in this population, show larger test score gains, especially in math.

Long-Term Consequences of Secondary School Vouchers: Evidence from Administrative Records in Colombia

Colombia's PACES program provided over 125,000 poor children with vouchers that covered half the cost of private secondary school. The vouchers were renewable annually conditional on adequate academic progress. Since many vouchers were assigned by lottery, program effects can reliably be assessed by comparing lottery winners and losers. Estimates using administrative records suggest the PACES program increased secondary school completion rates by 15-20 percent. Correcting for the greater percentage of lottery winners taking college admissions tests, the program increased test scores by two-tenths of a standard deviation in the distribution of potential test scores. Boys, who have lower scores than girls in this population, show larger test score gains, especially in math.

Lyman Alpha Imaging of a Proto-Cluster Region at <z>=3.09

We present very deep imaging observations, through a narrow-band filter tuned to Lyman alpha at , of a volume containing a significant over-density of galaxies at this redshift previously discovered in our survey for continuum-selected Lyman break galaxies (LBGs). The new observations are used in conjunction with our spectroscopic results on LBGs to compare the effectiveness of continuum and emission line searches for star forming galaxies at high redshift, and to extend the search for members of the structure at = 3.09 to much fainter continuum luminosities. We find that only 20-25 percent of all galaxies at a given UV continuum luminosity would be flagged as narrow-band excess objects subject to the typical limits W_Lya > 80 Angstroms in the observed frame. The density enhancement of strong Lyman alpha emitters in this field is consistent with that inferred from the analysis of the spectroscopic Lyman break galaxy sample in the same region (6+/-1), but extends to continuum luminosities up to 2 magnitudes fainter. There is no evidence for a significantly higher fraction of large Lyman alpha line equivalent widths at faint continuum luminosities. By combining the 24 spectroscopic members of the z=3.09 ``spike'' with the narrow-band candidates, we are able to produce a sample of 162 objects which are either known or likely members of this large structure. We have also discovered two extremely large and diffuse Lyman alpha emitting ``blobs'', which have physical extents >100/h kpc and Lyman alpha line fluxes 20-40 times larger than the typical line emitters at the same redshifts in the field. The possible nature of the ``blobs'' is discussed. (abstract abridged)Comment: To appear in the ApJ, 31 pages, aaste

Processing techniques development, volume 3

The author has identified the following significant results. Analysis of the geometric characteristics of the aircraft synthetic aperture radar (SAR) relative to LANDSAT indicated that relatively low order polynominals would model the distortions to subpixel accuracy to bring SAR into registration for good quality imagery. Also the area analyzed was small, about 10 miles square, so this is an additional constraint. For the Air Force/ERIM data, none of the tested methods could achieve subpixel accuracy. Reasons for this is unknown; however, the noisy (high scintillation) nature of the data and attendent unrecognizability of features contribute to this error. It is concluded that the quadratic model would adequately provide distortion modeling for small areas, i.e., 10 to 20 miles square

Stated Beliefs and Play in Normal-Form Games

Using data on one-shot games, we investigate the assumption that players respond to underlying expectations about their opponent's behavior. In our laboratory experiments, subjects play a set of 14 two-person 3x3 games, and state first order beliefs about their opponent'sbehavior. The sets of responses in the two tasks are largely inconsistent. Rather, we findevidence that the subjects perceive the games differently when they (i) choose actions, and (ii) state beliefs _ they appear to pay more attention to the opponent's incentives when they state beliefs than when they play the games. On average, they fail to best respond to their own stated beliefs in almost half of the games. The inconsistency is confirmed by estimates of a unified statistical model that jointly uses the actions and the belief statements. There, we can control for noise, and formulate a statistical test that rejects consistency. Effects of the belief elicitation procedure on subsequent actions are mostly insignificant.

An effective palynological preparation procedure using hydrogen peroxide

Most pre-Quaternary palynology samples are currently prepared by demineralization of the sediment/sedimentary rock matrix using hydrochloric and hydrofluoric acids (HCl and HF respectively). If a consistently effective alternative to this procedure can be developed, palynological processing will be made significantly less hazardous to both laboratory personnel, and to the wider environment. Furthermore, most non-acid processing methods are normally quicker and cheaper than matrix dissolution using acid. Some authors have previously used hydrogen peroxide (H2O2) to extract palynomorphs by the physico–chemical disaggregation of the clay fraction. However, H2O2 is a powerful oxidizing agent and hence can potentially destroy sedimentary organic material, including palynomorphs. A new method using hot H2O2, where exposure of the sample material to the H2O2 is minimized, has been developed. Crushed sample material in a suitable vessel is placed on a hot plate for one minute, treated with 15–30% H2O2 for 10 minutes, then the residue is diluted with cold distilled water. Disaggregated sample material tends to float, and is decanted into a large vessel containing distilled water to further dilute the H2O2. If any undisaggregated sample remains, the procedure is repeated several times if necessary. Relatively indurated sedimentary lithotypes normally require several treatments. The reason for this stepwise treatment is that the organic material is not exposed to H2O2 for sustained periods, thereby reducing the possibility of palynomorph damage/degradation due to oxidation. When the sample matrix has been fully disaggregated, the residue can be further processed as appropriate. In this study, eight samples of Carboniferous, Jurassic, Paleogene, and Quaternary age were prepared quantitatively using the new H2O2 method. These were all prepared using 30% H2O2. For comparison, they were also prepared quantitatively using HCl/HF and/or sodium hexametaphosphate [(NaPO3)6]. Quantitative preparations allow the concentration of palynomorphs extracted to be determined, and therefore the effectiveness of the techniques used can be compared objectively. The palynomorph residues derived from these three techniques varied markedly. The H2O2 method does not consistently disaggregate all the sample material, particularly the older and more indurated lithotypes. Some evidence of oxidation effects was observed. Two samples of Mississippian mudstone from the U.S.A. were prepared using H2O2 and (NaPO3)6. Both methods produced abundant miospores, however the H2O2 procedure yielded far higher palynomorph concentrations than the (NaPO3)6 technique. Minor degradation of palynomorphs in the H2O2 preparation was noted. The H2O2 and HCl/HF methods were compared directly on a palynomorph-rich sample of Upper Carboniferous mudstone from offshore Scotland. Both preparations produced abundant miospores. The HCl/HF method had significantly higher recovery levels than the H2O2 procedure. It appears that the H2O2 method simultaneously macerates the matrix, and oxidizes any amorphous organic material (AOM) present. In this sample, the HCl/HF residue was relatively rich in AOM. By contrast, the H2O2 preparation is virtually clear of this phytoclast type, which partially obscures palynomorphs. Two samples of the Middle Jurassic Grantham Formation of eastern England were processed using H2O2 and HCl/HF. The two methods produced abundant palynofloras of similar palynomorph concentrations. Two dinoflagellate cyst acmes within the Danian (Paleogene) part of the López de Bertodano Formation of Seymour Island, Antarctica were also tested using H2O2, (NaPO3)6, and HCl/HF. TheH2O2 preparation completely destroyed the dominant taxon, Palaeoperidinium pyrophorum, in one sample. By contrast, the (NaPO3)6 and HCl/HF preparations produced abundant, fully representative palynofloras. In the other sample, the acme of Spinidinium spp. is completely unaffected by the H2O2 preparation procedure. The final sample of this study is an unconsolidated clay of Late Pleistocene age from offshore Scotland. Both the H2O2 and HCl/HF preparations proved similar in both taxonomic content and overall palynomorph yield. The new method of preparation using hot H2O2 has proved to be extremely effective. In particular, it appears to be superior to the (NaPO3)6 procedure for indurated lithotypes. However care should be taken because H2O2 can destroy certain dinoflagellate cysts and kerogen macerals which are especially susceptible to oxidation. Further development work, and more comparative testing of the H2O2, (NaPO3)6, and HCl/HF procedures, should be undertaken