30,958 research outputs found
Logic-Based Decision Support for Strategic Environmental Assessment
Strategic Environmental Assessment is a procedure aimed at introducing
systematic assessment of the environmental effects of plans and programs. This
procedure is based on the so-called coaxial matrices that define dependencies
between plan activities (infrastructures, plants, resource extractions,
buildings, etc.) and positive and negative environmental impacts, and
dependencies between these impacts and environmental receptors. Up to now, this
procedure is manually implemented by environmental experts for checking the
environmental effects of a given plan or program, but it is never applied
during the plan/program construction. A decision support system, based on a
clear logic semantics, would be an invaluable tool not only in assessing a
single, already defined plan, but also during the planning process in order to
produce an optimized, environmentally assessed plan and to study possible
alternative scenarios. We propose two logic-based approaches to the problem,
one based on Constraint Logic Programming and one on Probabilistic Logic
Programming that could be, in the future, conveniently merged to exploit the
advantages of both. We test the proposed approaches on a real energy plan and
we discuss their limitations and advantages.Comment: 17 pages, 1 figure, 26th Int'l. Conference on Logic Programming
(ICLP'10
How could a rational analysis model explain?
Rational analysis is an influential but contested account of how probabilistic modeling can be used to construct non-mechanistic but self-standing explanatory models of the mind. In this paper, I disentangle and assess several possible explanatory contributions which could be attributed to rational analysis. Although existing models suffer from evidential problems that question their explanatory power, I argue that rational analysis modeling can complement mechanistic theorizing by providing models of environmental affordances
Beyond Covariation: Cues to Causal Structure
Causal induction has two components: learning about the structure of causal models and learning about causal strength and other quantitative parameters. This chapter argues for several interconnected theses. First, people represent causal knowledge qualitatively, in terms of causal structure; quantitative knowledge is derivative. Second, people use a variety of cues to infer causal structure aside from statistical data (e.g. temporal order, intervention, coherence with prior knowledge). Third, once a structural model is hypothesized, subsequent statistical data are used to confirm, refute, or elaborate the model. Fourth, people are limited in the number and complexity of causal models that they can hold in mind to test, but they can separately learn and then integrate simple models, and revise models by adding and removing single links. Finally, current computational models of learning need further development before they can be applied to human learning
ExplainIt! -- A declarative root-cause analysis engine for time series data (extended version)
We present ExplainIt!, a declarative, unsupervised root-cause analysis engine
that uses time series monitoring data from large complex systems such as data
centres. ExplainIt! empowers operators to succinctly specify a large number of
causal hypotheses to search for causes of interesting events. ExplainIt! then
ranks these hypotheses, reducing the number of causal dependencies from
hundreds of thousands to a handful for human understanding. We show how a
declarative language, such as SQL, can be effective in declaratively
enumerating hypotheses that probe the structure of an unknown probabilistic
graphical causal model of the underlying system. Our thesis is that databases
are in a unique position to enable users to rapidly explore the possible causal
mechanisms in data collected from diverse sources. We empirically demonstrate
how ExplainIt! had helped us resolve over 30 performance issues in a commercial
product since late 2014, of which we discuss a few cases in detail.Comment: SIGMOD Industry Track 201
Training Dynamic Exponential Family Models with Causal and Lateral Dependencies for Generalized Neuromorphic Computing
Neuromorphic hardware platforms, such as Intel's Loihi chip, support the
implementation of Spiking Neural Networks (SNNs) as an energy-efficient
alternative to Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs). SNNs are networks of neurons
with internal analogue dynamics that communicate by means of binary time
series. In this work, a probabilistic model is introduced for a generalized
set-up in which the synaptic time series can take values in an arbitrary
alphabet and are characterized by both causal and instantaneous statistical
dependencies. The model, which can be considered as an extension of exponential
family harmoniums to time series, is introduced by means of a hybrid
directed-undirected graphical representation. Furthermore, distributed learning
rules are derived for Maximum Likelihood and Bayesian criteria under the
assumption of fully observed time series in the training set.Comment: Published in IEEE ICASSP 2019. Author's Accepted Manuscrip
Conditional independence testing based on a nearest-neighbor estimator of conditional mutual information
Conditional independence testing is a fundamental problem underlying causal
discovery and a particularly challenging task in the presence of nonlinear and
high-dimensional dependencies. Here a fully non-parametric test for continuous
data based on conditional mutual information combined with a local permutation
scheme is presented. Through a nearest neighbor approach, the test efficiently
adapts also to non-smooth distributions due to strongly nonlinear dependencies.
Numerical experiments demonstrate that the test reliably simulates the null
distribution even for small sample sizes and with high-dimensional conditioning
sets. The test is better calibrated than kernel-based tests utilizing an
analytical approximation of the null distribution, especially for non-smooth
densities, and reaches the same or higher power levels. Combining the local
permutation scheme with the kernel tests leads to better calibration, but
suffers in power. For smaller sample sizes and lower dimensions, the test is
faster than random fourier feature-based kernel tests if the permutation scheme
is (embarrassingly) parallelized, but the runtime increases more sharply with
sample size and dimensionality. Thus, more theoretical research to analytically
approximate the null distribution and speed up the estimation for larger sample
sizes is desirable.Comment: 17 pages, 12 figures, 1 tabl
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