A Citizen's Guide to Redistricting

Provides a detailed overview of states' rules and processes for redrawing federal, state, and local legislative districts. Illustrates possible motives behind redistricting, effects on elections, implications for legislation, and reform recommendations

International Taxation in an Era of Digital Disruption: Analyzing the Current Debate

The “taxation of the digital economy” is currently at the top of the global international tax policymaking agenda. A core claim some European governments are advancing is that user data or user participation in the digital economy justifies a gross tax on digital receipts, new profit attribution criteria, or a special formulary apportionment factor in a future formulary regime targeted specifically at the “digital economy.” Just a couple years ago the OECD undertook an evaluation of whether the digital economy can (or should) be “ring-fenced” as part of the BEPS project, and concluded that it neither can be nor should be. Importantly, concluding that there should be no special rules for the digital economy does not resolve the broader question of whether the international tax system requires reform. The practical reality appears to be that all the largest economies have come to agree either that a) there is something wrong with the taxation of the “digital economy,” or b) there is something more fundamentally wrong with the structure of the current international tax system given globalization and technological trends. This paper is intended as a limited exploration of the second (or third, or fourth) best. It analyzes three policy options that have been discussed in general terms in the current global debate. First, I consider whether “user participation” justifies changing profit allocation results in the digital economy alone. I conclude that applying the user participation concept in a manner that is limited to the digital economy is intellectually indefensible; at most it amounts to mercantilist ring-fencing. Moreover, at the technical level user participation faces all the same challenges as more comprehensive and principled proposals for reallocating excess returns among jurisdictions. Second, I consider one such comprehensive international tax reform idea, loosely referred to by the moniker “marketing intangibles.” This idea represents a compromise between the present transfer pricing system and sales or destination-based reforms to the transfer pricing regime. I conclude that splitting taxing rights over “excess” returns between the present transfer pricing system and a destination-based approach is complex, creates new sources of potential conflict, and requires relatively extensive tax harmonization. This conclusion applies equally to user participation and marketing intangibles. If such a mechanism were nevertheless pursued, I suggest that a formulary system for splitting the excess return is the most manageable approach. Third, I consider “minimum effective taxation” ideas. I conclude that, as compared to the other two policy options discussed herein, minimum effective taxation provides a preferable path for multilateral cooperation

Why the House of Representatives Must Be Expanded and How Today’s Congress Can Make It Happen

The House of Representatives was designed to expand alongside the country’s population—yet its membership stopped growing a century ago. Larger and, in some cases, unequal sized congressional districts have left Americans with worse representation, including in the Electoral College, which allocates electors partially on the size of states’ House delegations. This report recommends tying the House’s size to the cube root of the nation’s population, which would lead to 141 more seats. It also calls for an approach to drawing districts that would eliminate gerrymandering. This report was researched and written during the 2018-2019 academic year by students in Fordham Law School’s Democracy and the Constitution Clinic, which is focused on developing non-partisan recommendations to strengthen the nation’s institutions and its democracy. The clinic\u27s reports are available at law.fordham.edu/democracyreports

Multi-Resolution Spatio-Temporal Change Analyses of Hydro-Climatological Variables in Association with Large-Scale Oceanic-Atmospheric Climate Signals

The primary objective of the work presented in this dissertation was to evaluate the change patterns, i.e., a gradual change known as the trend, and an abrupt change known as the shift, of multiple hydro-climatological variables, namely, streamflow, snow water equivalent (SWE), temperature, precipitation, and potential evapotranspiration (PET), in association with the large-scale oceanic-atmospheric climate signals. Moreover, both observed datasets and modeled simulations were used to evaluate such change patterns to assess the efficacy of the modeled datasets in emulating the observed trends and shifts under the influence of uncertainties and inconsistencies. A secondary objective of this study was to utilize the detected change patterns in designing data-driven prediction models, e.g., artificial neural networks (ANNs), support vector machines (SVMs), and Gaussian process regression (GPR) models, coupled with data pre-processing techniques, e.g., principal component analysis (PCA) and wavelet transforms (WTs). The study was not solely limited to the hydrologic regions of the conterminous United States (U.S.); rather it was extended to include an analysis of northern India to appraise the differences in the spatiotemporal variation on a broader scale. A task was designed to investigate the significant spatiotemporal variations in continental US streamflow patterns as a response to large-scale climate signals across multiple spectral bands (SBs). Using non-parametric (long-term) trend and (abrupt) shift detection tests, coupled with discrete wavelet transform, 237 unimpaired streamflow stations were analyzed over a study period of 62 years (1951 to 2012), looking at the water year and seasonal data, along with three discrete SBs of two, four, and eight years. Wavelet coherence analysis, derived from continuous wavelet transform, determined the association between the regional streamflow patterns and three large-scale climate signals, i.e., El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO), across continuous SBs ranging from two to 16 years. The results indicated significant positive (negative) trends and shifts in the northeastern and north-central (northwestern) regions with an increase in the number of stations as the SB durations increased. The spatiotemporal association between regional streamflow and climate signals varied significantly (from no correlation, Rn2 ~ 0, to perfect correlation, Rn2 ~ 1.0) even amongst adjacent regions. Among the climate signals, ENSO showed the highest association (Rn2 ~ 1.0), having a consistent phase relationship with regional streamflow patterns, especially in the higher SBs. PDO (with the least influence among the three signals) and AMO showed stronger associations, in the lower SBs. These results may help explain the teleconnections between the climate signals and the US streamflow variations across multiple SBs, which may lead to improved regional flow regulations. The comparison among several data-driven models, e.g., ANN, SVM, and GPR models, preceded by PCA and WT, produced comparable results with significant accuracy (with R2 above 0.90) in short-term prediction of streamflow. Later, the correlations between the western U.S. snow water equivalent (SWE) and the two major oceanic-atmospheric indices originating from the Pacific Ocean, namely, ENSO and PDO, were evaluated using continuous wavelet transform and its derivatives. Snow Telemetry (SNOTEL) data for 1 April SWE from 323 sites (out of which 258 are in six hydrologic regions) were obtained for a study period of 56 years (1961–2016). The results showed that ENSO had a much higher influence than PDO throughout the western U.S. SWE across the study period. Both ENSO and PDO showed a higher correlation with SWE at multiple timescale bands across different time intervals, although significant intervals in the higher timescales were of longer duration. ENSO showed a higher correlation in the 10-to-16-year band across the entire study period as well as in the lower timescales. PDO showed a higher correlation below the 4-year band. The relative phase relationship suggested that ENSO led SWE, with certain lags, while both were moving in the same direction in many instances. The lag-response behavior of SWE and PDO was not found to be uniform. Regional analyses, based on the western U.S. hydrologic regions, suggested significant variation across adjacent regions in terms of their correlation with ENSO/PDO. Association with ENSO was also observed to be higher compared to PDO among the regions. Regions close to the ocean and at lower elevation showed higher correlation compared to the inland regions with higher elevation. The influence of ENSO on the north Indian temperature, precipitation, and PET change patterns was evaluated during the monsoon season across the last century. Trends and shifts in 146 districts were assessed using non-parametric statistical tests. To quantify their temporal variation, the concept of apportionment entropy was applied to both the annual and seasonal scales. Results suggest that the El Niño years played a greater role in causing hydro-climatological changes compared to the La Niña or neutral years. El Niño was more influential in causing shifts compared to trends. For certain districts, a phase change in ENSO reversed the trend/shift direction. The all-year (century-wide) analysis suggested that the vast majority of the districts experienced significant decreasing trends/shifts in temperature and PET. However, precipitation experienced both increasing and decreasing trends/shifts based on the location of the districts. Entropy results suggested a lower apportionment of precipitation compared to the other variables, indicating an intermittent deviation of precipitation pattern from the generic trend. The findings may help understand the effects of ENSO on hydro-climatological variables during the monsoon season. Practitioners may find the results useful, as monsoon, among the Indian seasons, experience the largest climate extremes. A final task was designed that evaluated Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) simulation models’ ability to capture the observed trends under the influence of shifts and persistence in their data distributions. A total of 41 temperature and 25 precipitation CMIP5 simulation models across 22 grid cells (2.5° x 2.5° squares) within the Colorado River Basin were analyzed and compared against the Climate Research Unit Time Series (CRU-TS) observed datasets over a study period of 104 years (from 1901 to 2004). Both the model simulations and observations were tested for shifts, and the time series before and after the shifts were analyzed separately for trend detection and quantification. Effects of several types of persistence were accounted for prior to both the trend and shift detection tests. The mean significant shift points (SPs) of the CMIP5 temperature models across the grid cells were found to be within a narrower range (between 1960 and 1970) compared to the CRU-TS observed SPs (between 1930 and 1980). Precipitation time series, especially the CRU-TS dataset, had a lack of significant SPs, which led to an inconsistency between the models and observations since the numbers of grid cells with a significant SP were not comparable. The modeled CMIP5 temperature trends, under the influence of shifts and persistence, were able to match the observed trends quite satisfactorily (within the same order and consistent direction). Unlike the temperature models, the CMIP5 precipitation models detected the SPs earlier than the observed SPs found in the CRU-TS data. The direction (as well as the magnitude) of trends, before and after significant shifts, were found to be inconsistent between the modeled simulations and observed precipitation data. Shifts, based on their direction, were found to either strengthen or neutralize pre-existing trends both in the model simulations as well as in the observations. The results also suggest that the temperature and precipitation data distributions were sensitive to different types of persistence. Such sensitivity was found to be consistent between the modeled and observed datasets. The study detected certain biases in the CMIP5 models in detecting the SPs (a tendency of detecting shifts earlier or later than the observed shifts) and also in quantifying the trends (overestimating the trend slopes). Such insights may be helpful in evaluating the efficacy of the simulation models in capturing observed trends under uncertainties and natural variabilities

This Is Where We Draw the Line

From George Washington's first presidential veto to the present day, redistricting issues have been highly controversial in the U.S. Gerrymandering, the act of manipulating district lines to grant someone an unfair advantage during elections, has caused the American society to become increasingly diverse, and it deprives the citizens of fundamental democratic rights. Independent redistricting commissions, which replace biased legislative redistricting, have become the premier institutional solution to the problem of partisan and racial gerrymandering, and initiatives to implement these commissions have skyrocketed in recent years. However, in awe of this evidently perfect solution to one of America’s most significant threats to democracy, most people seem to overlook, or even ignore, essential democratic principles. The independent redistricting commission is a wolf in sheep’s clothing; it might appear as the ideal way to construct the act of redistricting, but, in reality, it deprives American citizens of their fundamental democratic rights

Taxing Data

The Article offers a new theory of tax on data collection and transmission as a primary source of government revenue. This tax does not depend on the monetary value of data. This data tax can supplement, and in some instances replace, income taxes. The data tax can (1) mitigate some of the failures of income taxes in a globalized data based economy, and (2) serve to alleviate some of the externalities of a data based economy. The Article advances the following four arguments. First, current challenges to tax systems stem largely from the fact that traditional models of taxation were designed for an economy in which the location of labor, the ownership of capital, and the monetary value of income were identifiable. These assumptions no longer stand in the modern economic environment: the data economy. Today, one the most significant sources of value creation is the analysis, manipulation, and utilization of large quantities of dispersed data. In so called data-rich markets, source, ownership, and value are not only hard to identify — they are not always economically meaningful concepts. Second, current responses to the tax challenges of the digital economy constitute — for the most part — efforts to identify proxies for the location in which monetary profits are created, or to identify the owners of such profits. The results are attempts to keep taxing the economic components of income (consumption and savings). Instead, this Article posits that one must look again at the normative goals of taxation, and question whether taxes on savings and consumption are still the best functional instruments to achieves such goals. The Article argues they are not. Income tax is only theoretically justifiable where it is the best proxy for ability to pay. In a data economy, monetary income is not necessarily the best instrument to measure ability to pay. Third, to address such challenges, the Article offers a framework of tax on data collection and transmission. The tax does not depend on the monetary value of such data. Data ta x is a suitable instrument to achieve the primary normative purposes of taxation. Moreover, tax on data can alleviate some of the challenges that the data economy presents to democratic institutions. Fourth, data tax can be designed to be fair, efficient, and administrable. The Article offers various possible tax instrument designs in which data (rather than savings or consumption) is the tax base

Taxing across borders: tracking personal wealth and corporate profits

This article attempts to estimate the magnitude of corporate tax avoidance and personal tax evasion through offshore tax havens. US corporations book 20 percent of their profits in tax havens, a tenfold increase since the 1980; their effective tax rate has declined from 30 to 20 percent over the last 15 years, and about two-thirds of this decline can be attributed to increased international tax avoidance. Globally, 8 percent of the world's personal financial wealth is held offshore, costing more than $200 billion to governments every year. Despite ambitious policy initiatives, profit shifting to tax havens and offshore wealth are rising. I discuss the recent proposals made to address these issues, and I argue that the main objective should be to create a world financial registry

Taxing across borders: tracking personal wealth and corporate profits

This article attempts to estimate the magnitude of corporate tax avoidance and personal tax evasion through offshore tax havens. US corporations book 20 percent of their profits in tax havens, a tenfold increase since the 1980; their effective tax rate has declined from 30 to 20 percent over the last 15 years, and about two-thirds of this decline can be attributed to increased international tax avoidance. Globally, 8 percent of the world's personal financial wealth is held offshore, costing more than $200 billion to governments every year. Despite ambitious policy initiatives, profit shifting to tax havens and offshore wealth are rising. I discuss the recent proposals made to address these issues, and I argue that the main objective should be to create a world financial registry

Foreword: Representation Without Party: Lessons from State Constitutional Attempts to Control Gerrymandering

Since the founding, all gerrymandering of election districts, at both the state and congressional levels, has been accomplished by state actors operating almost exclusively under state law. State constitutions have often served as a first line of defense against publicly disfavored practices, and the treatment of gerrymandering is no exception. The state constitutional record reveals a gradual introduction, diffusion, and evolution of a wide variety of provisions intended to control gerrymandering, including requirements of contiguity, compactness, respect for local political boundaries, and preservation of communities of interest, among others. Indeed, such provisions have been validated by the U.S. Supreme Court and folded into its redistricting jurisprudence under the banner of traditional districting principles to which states are constitutionally free to adhere. Yet it is clear that these principles, intended to constrain legislative discretion in drawing district lines, have been largely unsuccessful at restricting partisan gerrymandering, which has become not only routine, but generally effective. Why have these provisions failed to impede this almost universally condemned practice? A close examination of the history of state constitutional attempts to control gerrymandering and the emergence of a state-level jurisprudence of apportionment suggests an answer. The existing panoply of state constitutional controls on redistricting cannot effectively control partisan gerrymandering because it was, and still is, aimed at a completely different problem: ensuring fair representation in the legislature of local economies and the individuals who inhabit them. The principles of representation that emerged at the founding, and that have been carried forward in state constitutions ever since, are rooted in two important beliefs: first, that a community of interest entitled to representation is formed by participation in a shared economy; and second, that such economies are inherently local, and thus properly defined territorially - indeed, by reference to local political units, predominantly counties, which were understood to comprise fundamentally distinct economic units. On this account of political representation, it is clear why state constitutional apportionment controls are defenseless against gerrymandering motivated by partisan ends: state constitutions to this day contemplate a kind of republican politics in which party plays no overt role, and in which gerrymandering consists of the artificial division of naturally occurring economic communities. Any attempt to control partisan manipulation of representation requires a constitutional system of representation that contemplates some proper role in representative politics for parties and partisanship - precisely what dominant state constitutional conceptions lack. This is not to say that state constitutions therefore lack any resources whatsoever to control partisan gerrymandering. It simply means that any such resources cannot be drawn from traditional districting principles, but must find their source in more recent principles of equal protection or structural regulation of political parties