Selection of Dancer Member Using Simple Additive Weighting

Travel and dance form in Indonesia is closely related to the development of community life, both in terms of ethnic structure and within the scope of the unitary state. This study determines the criteria for selecting dancer members and how to apply the qualified Simple method. Based on predetermined criteria is the ability to dance physical flexibility, skilled, nimble, confident, have the ability, fill out the form, and certificate of achievement. From the results obtained values then V1, V2, V3, V4, V5 is a member of a qualified dancer and has a highest value with a score of 100 which was obtained from V2

Expert system for insect pests of agricultural crops

Insect pests are one of the major constraints in agricultural production, processing and storage. The damage caused by insect pests in agriculture is substantial and farmers have to incur huge monetary losses. Management of insect pests is therefore the only solution to save the crops and other valuable inputs that goes into agricultural production. Vast information on insect pests of different crops and their management is available at different sources. Based on this knowledge, a rule based expert system for insect pests of different agricultural crops was developed. The system is supported by a database containing information about 15 crops with a total of 95 insect pests affecting those crops. The expert system was evaluated following the conventional expert system evaluation methodology. This system provides information and solutions to farmers, scientists, extension workers involved in agriculture development and education. Using this system one can identify the pest and diagnose the problem for speedy and effective decision making in pest management to avoid losses

An Investigation into Factors Affecting the Chilled Food Industry

With the advent of Industry 4.0, many new approaches towards process monitoring, benchmarking and traceability are becoming available, and these techniques have the potential to radically transform the agri-food sector. In particular, the chilled food supply chain (CFSC) contains a number of unique challenges by virtue of it being thought of as a temperature controlled supply chain. Therefore, once the key issues affecting the CFSC have been identified, algorithms can be proposed, which would allow realistic thresholds to be established for managing these problems on the micro, meso and macro scales. Hence, a study is required into factors affecting the CFSC within the scope of Industry 4.0. The study itself has been broken down into four main topics: identifying the key issues within the CFSC; implementing a philosophy of continuous improvement within the CFSC; identifying uncertainty within the CFSC; improving and measuring the performance of the supply chain. However, as a consequence of this study two further topics were added: a discussion of some of the issues surrounding information sharing between retailers and suppliers; some of the wider issues affecting food losses and wastage (FLW) on the micro, meso and macro scales. A hybrid algorithm is developed, which incorporates the analytic hierarchical process (AHP) for qualitative issues and data envelopment analysis (DEA) for quantitative issues. The hybrid algorithm itself is a development of the internal auditing algorithm proposed by Sueyoshi et al (2009), which in turn was developed following corporate scandals such as Tyco, Enron, and WorldCom, which have led to a decline in public trust. However, the advantage of the proposed solution is that all of the key issues within the CFSC identified can be managed from a single computer terminal, whilst the risk of food contamination such as the 2013 horsemeat scandal can be avoided via improved traceability

Desarrollo y evaluación de modelos para la toma de decisiones: caracterización de la producción de anguilas (Anguilla anguilla L.) en sistemas intensivos

El objetivo principal de la tesis desarrollada es conseguir una mejora del régimen de explotación en una piscifactoría de anguilas europeas (Anguilla anguilla L.) a través de unas herramientas de predicción y simulación lo suficientemente fiables, que permitan al acuicultor prever a corto y medio plazo los acontecimientos que van a suceder desde un punto de vista patológico, así como a nivel de control de parámetros físicos, químicos y biológicos. De manera global, los principales beneficios que se obtienen de la aplicación del sistema de predicción y simulación son: 1,- Desde el punto de vista patológico, se puede llevar a cabo un diagnóstico precoz de la enfermedad, gracias al cual será posible la aplicación del tratamiento preventivo adecuado, con el consecuente ahorro de productos terapéuticos y disminución de la mortalidad. Para ello, se ha programado un sistema experto en cuyo motor de inferencia se combina el potencial de la lógica borrosa con el método de transmisión de la incertidumbre conocido como teoría de Dempster-Shafer. 2,- La predicción de las condiciones físico-químicas permite al mismo tiempo evaluar el comportamiento de la planta en su totalidad, de tal forma que el gestor puede adecuar las actividades de los operarios para, en el caso de un peligro significativo, establecer un sistema de control que modifique la desviación de los parámetros afectados hasta sus niveles normales. El problema de la predicción de los parámetros físico-químicos se ha resuelto mediante la aplicación conjunta de técnicas estadísticas clásicas (regresión múltiple de series temporales, suavizados lineales, modelos MM, AR, ARMA y ARIMA) y modelos de Redes Neuronales Computacionales (RNCs). 3,- La predicción de la evolución de los parámetros poblacionales facilita el control de la producción, mortalidad, distribución de las raciones diarias de alimento, seguimiento del stock, y puede servir como indicativo de la estabilidad o variabilidad de las condiciones ambientales dentro de la explotación. Permite, por otra parte, la definición de lo que se conoce como estrategia de producción, en la que se define la forma de comercialización del producto y su impacto sobre el stoc

Animal welfare assessment : possible strategies and new indicators for brazilian broiler chickens

Orientadora: Profa. Dra. Carla Forte Maiolino MolentoTese (doutorado) - Universidade Federal do Paraná, Setor de Ciências Agrárias, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Ciências Veterinárias. Defesa : Curitiba, 29/03/2019Inclui referênciasResumo: O Brasil é um importante produtor mundial de frangos de corte e a avaliação regular de bem-estar animal torna-se essencial nesse país. As avaliações podem ocorrer no âmbito das organizações, por meio do monitoramento do processo produtivo, e no âmbito Federal, por meio de um programa mais amplo de vigilância em bem-estar animal. O uso de medidas cientificamente validadas baseadas nos animais tem sido incentivado para avaliar bem-estar animal. Desta forma, este estudo objetivou o desenvolvimento de estratégias e de novos indicadores para avaliação do grau de bem-estar de frangos de corte dentro do contexto brasileiro. A tese está organizada em sete capítulos: (1) Apresentação; (2) Dados de inspeção de abate de frangos de corte no Brasil: uma abordagem inicial de bem-estar animal; (3) Proposta de um sistema de gerenciamento para desenvolver uma estratégia de bem-estar animal para a cadeia de produção animal; (4) Desenvolvimento e refinamento de três indicadores de bem-estar de frangos de corte baseados nos animais; (5) Escala ordinal ou visual analógica para avaliar aspectos de bem-estar de frangos de corte?; (6) Desenvolvimento de uma lista fixa de termos em Português do Brasil para avaliação qualitativa do comportamento de frangos de corte e (7) Considerações finais. O estudo sobre dados de inspeção de abate apresenta o potencial do uso dos dados de condenação de carcaça como indicadores em um programa de monitoramento de bem-estar, desde que o órgão competente harmonize o procedimento de inspeção entre os Estados, defina os indicadores específicos a serem monitorados e integre dados de condenação, transporte e das granjas. O capítulo sobre a proposta de criação de um sistema de gerenciamento de bem-estar animal adaptou o método de Análise de Perigos e Pontos Críticos de Controle para fins de bem-estar, com potencial para redução a médio e longo prazo de problemas por meio de ações corretivas e preventivas; bem como possibilitou a inclusão das discussões de bem-estar em níveis corporativos mais altos nas empresas. No capítulo sobre o desenvolvimento e refinamento de indicadores, sujidade de aves foi refinado como um indicador de bem-estar de frangos de corte e dois indicadores adicionais, dermatite de contato das áreas de peito e abdômen e arranhadura de carcaça, foram desenvolvidos e testados. Os indicadores foram confiáveis entre os avaliadores e os resultados identificaram que os problemas eram prevalentes entre as aves avaliadas. O capítulo sobre o uso de escalas ordinal e visual analógica evidenciou que ambas escalas eram confiáveis e que a escala ordinal não se apresenta equidistante quando é medida pela escala visual analógica para os indicadores estudados. O estudo sobre avaliação qualitativa do comportamento demonstrou que a lista é confiável para avaliar as qualidades do comportamento que expressam emoções em frangos. A presente tese contribuiu com meios para que tomadores de decisão possam planejar ações em direção a uma agenda positiva para o bem-estar de frangos de corte. O resultado desejado desta tese é a produção de dados confiáveis para informar a sociedade a respeito das condições de bem-estar de frangos de corte, promovendo transparência dos processos e permitindo reais melhorias para os animais. Palavras-chave: Bem-estar animal. Avaliação de bem-estar animal. Estratégia de bem-estar animal. Aves. Gestão da qualidade.Abstract: Brazil is an important broiler chicken producer, and the adoption of regular animal welfare assessment seems essential in this country. Assessments may occur at organizational level, by monitoring productive process, and at Federal level, through a broader welfare surveillance program. The use of scientific-validated animal-based measures to assess animal welfare has been fully encouraged. Thus, this thesis aimed to develop strategies and new indicators for broiler chicken welfare assessment tailored for the Brazilian context. The thesis is organized into seven chapters: (1) Presentation; (2) Broiler chicken meat inspection data in Brazil: a first glimpse into an animal welfare approach; (3) Proposal of a management system to develop an animal welfare strategy for the animal food chain; (4) Development and refinement of three animal-based broiler chicken welfare indicators; (5) Ordinal or visual analogue scales for assessing aspects of broiler chicken welfare?; (6) Development of a fixed list of terms in Brazilian Portuguese for the qualitative behaviour assessment of broiler chickens; and (7) Final considerations. The study about meat inspection data presents the potential use of carcass condemnation data of broiler chicken slaughterhouses as indicators in an animal welfare monitoring program provided that the competent authority harmonizes the procedure of meat inspection among states, sets specific animal welfare outcomes to be monitored, and integrates condemnation, transport and flock data. The chapter about the proposal of an animal welfare management system adapted the Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Point for animal welfare purposes, with potential for mid to long-term reduction of animal welfare problems through planned corrective and preventive actions and inclusion of animal welfare discussions to higher corporate levels in companies. From the results of the chapter on the development and refinement of animal-based indicators, bird soiling was refined as a broiler chicken welfare indicator, and two additional indicators, contact dermatitis on the breast and abdominal areas and carcass scratches, were developed and tested. Indicators were reliable among the raters and results identified problems were prevalent on the assessed birds. The chapter on the testing of ordinal and visual analogue scales evidenced that both scales were reliable, and ordinal scale is not equidistant when measured using visual analogue scale for the studied indicators. The study about the qualitative behaviour assessment suggests the fixed list is reliable to assess the expressive qualities of broilers behaviour. This thesis contributes to provide information to empower decision makers to plan actions to move forward a positive agenda for the welfare of broiler chickens. Desirable output expected from the chapters studied in the present thesis include reliable data to inform society about broiler chicken welfare conditions, giving transparency of the production process, and allowing for real improvements to the animals. Keywords: Animal welfare. Animal welfare assessment. Animal welfare strategy. Poultry. Quality management

Risk and economic consequences of contagious animal disease introduction

IntroductionWithin the European Union, epidemics of contagious animal diseases such as Classical Swine Fever (CSF) and Foot-and-Mouth Disease (FMD) are to be eradicated according to strict EU- prescriptions including stamping-out of infected herds, establishment of control and surveillance zones with complete standstill of animals and possible export bans on live animals. Epidemics clearly have a serious impact, in particular on countries with a high farm density and an export- oriented production, such as the Netherlands. Therefore, an effective animal disease prevention policy is of major importance for these countries.This thesis is a result of a joint action by the government and private industry in the Netherlands that have funded a research project aimed at gaining more insight into the risk and economic consequences of virus introduction into the country.Real-life experiments on strategies to reduce animal disease introduction and spread is not an option because such experiments would be too risky (and hence too costly). In principle, simulation modelling is an attractive alternative. It calculates the effects of predefined sets of input variables and therefore also offers the possibility of exploring strategies that have not been applied yet. Literature search showed that simulation models describing spread and economic consequences of epidemics within a country were already available. However, an integrated approach which combines the various aspects of outbreaks and spread with economic consequences of outbreaks was still lacking. Therefore, this research project emphasized the development of a model describing introduction of virus into the Netherlands and on the integration and combination of the models.Expert knowledgeGeneralAs with every model, the quality of the outcome of a simulation model is strongly influenced by the quality of the input ('garbage in = garbage out'). Therefore, a considerable part of the research was devoted to the gathering of information on aspects influencing virus introduction. It would be ideal to base the simulation model on relevant historical and experimental data. However, such information on virus introduction is limited, if available at all. Furthermore, outbreaks of contagious animal diseases occur irregularly over time and differ in magnitude; moreover circumstances change. Therefore it is questionable if historical data are relevant in simulating current and future events. Experimental data are also sparsely available. Literature search has shown that many researchers have done work in the area of contagious animal diseases, but most of their findings are of a qualitative nature. Despite this lack of 'objective' information, decisions on eradication and prevention of outbreaks must be made. Currently, such decisions rely on the expertise (a combination of experience and understanding of current/future circumstances) of those working in this area. Such expertise is a useful and necessary addition to the data available from research and databases. The elicitation of this 'expert knowledge' in an objective way, resulting in quantitative information useful for modelling purposes, was one of the major topics in the thesis.Pilot experimentFor the elicitation experiment a format was sought which would guarantee a high response from experts and would provide the ability to elicit individual opinions in an objective way. Literature search showed that many elicitation methods were available, all with their own pros and cons. One of the methods, Conjoint Analysis, was considered an interesting technique for the elicitation of the relative importance of the risk factors. Conjoint Analysis is well known in consumer and marketing studies, but thus far has not or only scarcely been used in the field of animal health economics. A pilot experiment was conducted in which the potential of the method for elicitation of the relative importance of risk factors was explored. In this experiment, the Conjoint Analysis technique was used to draw up a paper questionnaire which was handed out during the 7th International Symposium on Veterinary Epidemiology and Economics (ISVEE) held at Nairobi, Kenya, August 1994. Relevant ISVEE-participants asked to assign scores to profiles of six contagious animal diseases (African and Classical Swine Fever, Foot-and-Mouth Disease, Swine Vesicular Disease, Newcastle Disease, and Avian Influenza). The Kenya-experiment showed promising results. However, also some lessons for future use were learned. The 'paperapproach' resulted in a low response (30%) and the participants, who were not selected on the basis of their expertise, indicated that is was very difficult and time-consuming to evaluate six diseases at one time.Basic experiment: elicitation of opinion of Dutch expertsThe results and experiences of the Kenya experiment have led to and framed the use 0' Conjoint Analysis in a second and much bigger experiment during which the subjective knowledge of Dutch experts was elicited. Experts were defined as people that were involved in either research or policy-making on animal disease prevention and people that would be consulted in case of an outbreak. As the number of experts was limited, an approach was needed which would guarantee a high response rate. Therefore, the experiment was framed as a full evening's workshop. Such a workshop is a one-off group meeting, which means that the participants have to show up only once and have the possibility of discussing issues with other experts: both aspects may be attractive and incentives to join. This approach worked out well: the experiment was attended by a total of 43 out of 50 invited persons, a response rate of 86%.Although it was acknowledged that group discussions may have the advantage of resulting in new and better approaches because people are able to share, evaluate and stimulate each other's opinions, the risk of possible negative effects of such discussions, such as individual dominance, was too high. Therefore, the workshop participants were asked to individually complete a computerized questionnaire. The program was developed to be self-explanatory, which minimized the interaction among participants and between participants and facilitators. The participants were given the opportunity to indicate on which disease they felt themselves most knowledgeable and were only asked questions about that disease. Furthermore, in order to keep the whole exercise at a manageable size, the questions were confined to Europe, the countries being grouped into five clusters.Relative importance of risk factorsThe relative importance of risk factors responsible for the introduction of virus into the Netherlands was elicited by using the above-described Conjoint Analysis method. Questions were asked per country cluster. The results showed that, for both FMD and CSF major risk factors were import of livestock and returning trucks. Differences between country clusters were small. For NCD, major risk factors were import of live animals, transport materials (crates) and import of exotic birds.As a follow-up on the Kenya experiment, the Conjoint Analysis element of the workshop experiment was evaluated in detail on its usefulness as a tool to elicit expert knowledge in the field of animal health economics. Criteria were validity, consistency and respondent evaluation. The results obtained were comparable to or better than the results obtained in consumer and marketing studies. It was concluded that Conjoint Analysis provided a useful addition to the toolkit of the animal health economist.Frequency of outbreaks in EuropeEach time an outbreak occurs in a European country, there is always a chance that the virus will be transferred to the Netherlands. A higher frequency of outbreaks in Europe means a higher risk of virus introduction to the Netherlands (and to all other countries). It was expected that estimates on the frequency of outbreaks would be difficult to make. Therefore, a method was chosen which enabled expression of uncertainty. This method, called ELI (elicitation), is a graphically-oriented computer program which facilitates the quantification of subjective knowledge about uncertain quantities. The program helps respondents produce subjective probability density functions (PDFs) and is based on socalled proper scoring rules. The top of a PDF indicates the best guess or most likely value, according to the respondent. The dispersion corresponds with the uncertainty as to this estimate.The ELI-element of the workshop resulted in the parameters of a normal distribution from all participants individually concerning the expected number of outbreaks within the next five years. The workshop participants expected numerous outbreaks of NCD and CSF but not so many of FMD. For all three diseases, most outbreaks were expected to occur in Eastern Europe (midpoints were 21, 20, and 21, for CSF FMD and NCD respectively). The smallest numbers were expected in the country cluster containing the UK, Ireland and Scandinavia (midpoints were 1, 0.5, and 2.5, for CSF, FMD and NCD respectively).High Risk PeriodThe High Risk Period (HRP) defines the period in which the virus is already present in a country but not yet detected or under control. During this period, the virus may spread freely within the country and/or transferred to other countries. The HRP can be divided into two periods, the first one starting with infection of the first animal and ending when an infected animal is detected (HRP1), the second period starting with detection and ending when all measures are considered effective (i.e., no spread to other countries) (HRP2).The participating experts were asked to give a three-point estimate (minimum, most likely and maximum expected length) for the duration of both periods, for all country clusters and for the Netherlands. The HRP Is with the highest duration were expected for Eastern Europe (midpoints of 42, 19, and 21 days for CSF, FMD and NCD respectively). Shortest duration was expected for the cluster including the UK, Ireland and Scandinavia (midpoints were 21, 7, and 10 days for CSF, FMD and NCD respectively). Short durations were estimated for the Netherlands as well.The HRP2 estimates showed the same distribution over countries, but were longer for FMD and CSF and shorter for NCD