Posterior Cramér-Rao bounds for discrete-time nonlinear filtering

A mean-square error lower bound for the discrete-time nonlinear filtering problem is derived based on the van Trees (1968) (posterior) version of the Cramer-Rao inequality. This lower bound is applicable to multidimensional nonlinear, possibly non-Gaussian, dynamical systems and is more general than the previous bounds in the literature. The case of singular conditional distribution of the one-step-ahead state vector given the present state is considered. The bound is evaluated for three important examples: the recursive estimation of slowly varying parameters of an autoregressive process, tracking a slowly varying frequency of a single cisoid in noise, and tracking parameters of a sinusoidal frequency with sinusoidal phase modulation.Facultad de IngenieríaInstituto de Investigaciones en Electrónica, Control y Procesamiento de Señale

The Recursive Form of Error Bounds for RFS State and Observation with Pd<1

In the target tracking and its engineering applications, recursive state estimation of the target is of fundamental importance. This paper presents a recursive performance bound for dynamic estimation and filtering problem, in the framework of the finite set statistics for the first time. The number of tracking algorithms with set-valued observations and state of targets is increased sharply recently. Nevertheless, the bound for these algorithms has not been fully discussed. Treating the measurement as set, this bound can be applied when the probability of detection is less than unity. Moreover, the state is treated as set, which is singleton or empty with certain probability and accounts for the appearance and the disappearance of the targets. When the existence of the target state is certain, our bound is as same as the most accurate results of the bound with probability of detection is less than unity in the framework of random vector statistics. When the uncertainty is taken into account, both linear and non-linear applications are presented to confirm the theory and reveal this bound is more general than previous bounds in the framework of random vector statistics.In fact, the collection of such measurements could be treated as a random finite set (RFS)

Approximate Gaussian conjugacy: parametric recursive filtering under nonlinearity, multimodality, uncertainty, and constraint, and beyond

Since the landmark work of R. E. Kalman in the 1960s, considerable efforts have been devoted to time series state space models for a large variety of dynamic estimation problems. In particular, parametric filters that seek analytical estimates based on a closed-form Markov–Bayes recursion, e.g., recursion from a Gaussian or Gaussian mixture (GM) prior to a Gaussian/GM posterior (termed ‘Gaussian conjugacy’ in this paper), form the backbone for a general time series filter design. Due to challenges arising from nonlinearity, multimodality (including target maneuver), intractable uncertainties (such as unknown inputs and/or non-Gaussian noises) and constraints (including circular quantities), etc., new theories, algorithms, and technologies have been developed continuously to maintain such a conjugacy, or to approximate it as close as possible. They had contributed in large part to the prospective developments of time series parametric filters in the last six decades. In this paper, we review the state of the art in distinctive categories and highlight some insights that may otherwise be easily overlooked. In particular, specific attention is paid to nonlinear systems with an informative observation, multimodal systems including Gaussian mixture posterior and maneuvers, and intractable unknown inputs and constraints, to fill some gaps in existing reviews and surveys. In addition, we provide some new thoughts on alternatives to the first-order Markov transition model and on filter evaluation with regard to computing complexity

The Marginal Enumeration Bayesian Cramer-Rao Bound for Jump Markov Systems

A marginal version of the enumeration Bayesian Cramer-Rao Bound (EBCRB) for jump Markov systems is proposed. It is shown that the proposed bound is at least as tight as EBCRB and the improvement stems from better handling of the nonlinearities. The new bound is illustrated to yield tighter results than BCRB and EBCRB on a benchmark example