Mathematical models of games of chance: Epistemological taxonomy and potential in problem-gambling research

Games of chance are developed in their physical consumer-ready form on the basis of mathematical models, which stand as the premises of their existence and represent their physical processes. There is a prevalence of statistical and probabilistic models in the interest of all parties involved in the study of gambling – researchers, game producers and operators, and players – while functional models are of interest more to math-inclined players than problem-gambling researchers. In this paper I present a structural analysis of the knowledge attached to mathematical models of games of chance and the act of modeling, arguing that such knowledge holds potential in the prevention and cognitive treatment of excessive gambling, and I propose further research in this direction

Statistical Agent Based Modelization of the Phenomenon of Drug Abuse

We introduce a statistical agent based model to describe the phenomenon of drug abuse and its dynamical evolution at the individual and global level. The agents are heterogeneous with respect to their intrinsic inclination to drugs, to their budget attitude and social environment. The various levels of drug use were inspired by the professional description of the phenomenon and this permits a direct comparison with all available data. We show that certain elements have a great importance to start the use of drugs, for example the rare events in the personal experiences which permit to overcame the barrier of drug use occasionally. The analysis of how the system reacts to perturbations is very important to understand its key elements and it provides strategies for effective policy making. The present model represents the first step of a realistic description of this phenomenon and can be easily generalized in various directions.Comment: 12 pages, 5 figure

Statistical models and the theory of hypothesis testing in medicine

Purpose: The purpose of this work is to develop statistical approaches for treatment efficiency analysis on a medical case. These methods include the effect evaluation method performed with various preparations in regards to several factors such as the patient‘s blood state and his/her biochemical values. Design/Methodology/Approach: The results of this survey were divided into three groups: the first included the blood biochemistry values before the test, the second — an hour after the test, the the third — two hours after the test. When visually comparing the results of the analyses of the three groups, it was possible to assume that the load of FLC did not significantly affect the biochemistry of the patients' blood. To test this medical assumption, various statistical criteria of the theory of testing statistical hypotheses have been applied. Findings: Statistical analysis of changes in the level of lipase and triglycerides in the biochemical analysis of the blood of patients with chronic pancreatitis after ingestion of food containing medium-chain fatty acids showed that there is no overall disruption in the functioning of the pancreas. Practical implications: Clinical practice has shown that more than 85% of patients tolerated testing with medium chain fatty acids, not experiencing a painful abdominal symptom and other negative consequences of a violation of external secretion of the pancreas. Originality/Value: In clinical practice, the Russian Academy of Medical Sciences for the first time took into account the results of a statistical analysis.peer-reviewe

Extraction of Airways with Probabilistic State-space Models and Bayesian Smoothing

Segmenting tree structures is common in several image processing applications. In medical image analysis, reliable segmentations of airways, vessels, neurons and other tree structures can enable important clinical applications. We present a framework for tracking tree structures comprising of elongated branches using probabilistic state-space models and Bayesian smoothing. Unlike most existing methods that proceed with sequential tracking of branches, we present an exploratory method, that is less sensitive to local anomalies in the data due to acquisition noise and/or interfering structures. The evolution of individual branches is modelled using a process model and the observed data is incorporated into the update step of the Bayesian smoother using a measurement model that is based on a multi-scale blob detector. Bayesian smoothing is performed using the RTS (Rauch-Tung-Striebel) smoother, which provides Gaussian density estimates of branch states at each tracking step. We select likely branch seed points automatically based on the response of the blob detection and track from all such seed points using the RTS smoother. We use covariance of the marginal posterior density estimated for each branch to discriminate false positive and true positive branches. The method is evaluated on 3D chest CT scans to track airways. We show that the presented method results in additional branches compared to a baseline method based on region growing on probability images.Comment: 10 pages. Pre-print of the paper accepted at Workshop on Graphs in Biomedical Image Analysis. MICCAI 2017. Quebec Cit

Chronic infection: punctuated interpenetration and pathogen virulence

We apply an information dynamics formalism to the Levens and Lewontin vision of biological interpenetration between a 'cognitive condensation' including immune function embedded in social and cultural structure on the one hand, and an established, highly adaptive, parasite population on the other. We iterate the argument, beginning with direct interaction between cognitive condensation and pathogen, then extend the analysis to second order 'mutator' mechanisms inherent both to immune function and to certain forms of rapid pathogen antigenic variability. The methodology, based on the Large Deviations Program of applied probability, produces synergistic cognitive/adaptive 'learning plateaus' that represent stages of chronic infection, and, for human populations, is able to encompass the fundamental biological reality of culture omitted by other approaches. We conclude that, for 'evolution machine' pathogens like HIV and malaria, simplistic magic bullet 'medical' drug, vaccine, or behavior modification interventions which do not address the critical context of overall living and working conditions may constitute selection pressures triggering adaptations in life history strategy resulting in marked increase of pathogen virulenc

Learning about a Categorical Latent Variable under Prior Near-Ignorance

It is well known that complete prior ignorance is not compatible with learning, at least in a coherent theory of (epistemic) uncertainty. What is less widely known, is that there is a state similar to full ignorance, that Walley calls near-ignorance, that permits learning to take place. In this paper we provide new and substantial evidence that also near-ignorance cannot be really regarded as a way out of the problem of starting statistical inference in conditions of very weak beliefs. The key to this result is focusing on a setting characterized by a variable of interest that is latent. We argue that such a setting is by far the most common case in practice, and we show, for the case of categorical latent variables (and general manifest variables) that there is a sufficient condition that, if satisfied, prevents learning to take place under prior near-ignorance. This condition is shown to be easily satisfied in the most common statistical problems.Comment: 15 LaTeX page