1,226 research outputs found
A Possibilistic and Probabilistic Approach to Precautionary Saving
This paper proposes two mixed models to study a consumer's optimal saving in
the presence of two types of risk.Comment: Panoeconomicus, 201
Fuzzy Real Investment Valuation Model for Giga-Investments, and a Note on Giga-Investment Lifecycle and Valuation
Very large industrial real investments are different from financial investments and from small real investments, even so, their profitability is commonly valued with the same methods. A definition of a group of very large industrial real investments is made, by requiring three common characteristics. The decision support needs arising from these characteristics are discussed and a summary of existing methods to value and to provide decision support for large industrial investments is presented. A model built specifically to support investment decisions of very large industrial real investments and a numerical application of the model are presented. The model is discussed and commented. A note is made on an observation regarding the giga-investment lifecycle and its effect on giga-investment valuation.Large industrial investments; Profitability analysis; Fuzzy corporate finance; Capital Budgeting
NEW ASPECTS REGARDING THE EVALUATION OF INVESTMENTS IN CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE
The additional risks associated to the actual global and contagious crisis put a severe pressure on the investments in critical infrastructure and there is a real need for new valuations especially those regarding the synergic financing strategies in critsynergic investments, critical infrastructure, real options valuation (ROV)
Uncertainty Analysis of the Adequacy Assessment Model of a Distributed Generation System
Due to the inherent aleatory uncertainties in renewable generators, the
reliability/adequacy assessments of distributed generation (DG) systems have
been particularly focused on the probabilistic modeling of random behaviors,
given sufficient informative data. However, another type of uncertainty
(epistemic uncertainty) must be accounted for in the modeling, due to
incomplete knowledge of the phenomena and imprecise evaluation of the related
characteristic parameters. In circumstances of few informative data, this type
of uncertainty calls for alternative methods of representation, propagation,
analysis and interpretation. In this study, we make a first attempt to
identify, model, and jointly propagate aleatory and epistemic uncertainties in
the context of DG systems modeling for adequacy assessment. Probability and
possibility distributions are used to model the aleatory and epistemic
uncertainties, respectively. Evidence theory is used to incorporate the two
uncertainties under a single framework. Based on the plausibility and belief
functions of evidence theory, the hybrid propagation approach is introduced. A
demonstration is given on a DG system adapted from the IEEE 34 nodes
distribution test feeder. Compared to the pure probabilistic approach, it is
shown that the hybrid propagation is capable of explicitly expressing the
imprecision in the knowledge on the DG parameters into the final adequacy
values assessed. It also effectively captures the growth of uncertainties with
higher DG penetration levels
The Relationship between Fuzzy Reasoning and Its Temporal Characteristics for Knowledge Management
The knowledge management systems based on artificial reasoning (KMAR) tries to provide computers the capabilities of performing various intelligent tasks for which their human users resort to their knowledge and collective intelligence. There is a need for incorporating aspects of time and imprecision into knowledge management systems, considering appropriate semantic foundations. The aim of this paper is to present the FRTES, a real-time fuzzy expert system, embedded in a knowledge management system. Our expert system is a special possibilistic expert system, developed in order to focus on fuzzy knowledge.Knowledge Management, Artificial Reasoning, predictability
Fuzzy uncertainty modelling for project planning; application to helicopter maintenance
Maintenance is an activity of growing interest specially for critical systems. Particularly, aircraft maintenance costs are becoming an important issue in the
aeronautical industry. Managing an aircraft maintenance center is a complex activity. One of the difficulties comes from the numerous uncertainties that affect the activity and disturb the plans at short and medium term. Based
on a helicopter maintenance planning and scheduling problem, we study in this paper the integration of uncertainties into tactical and operational multiresource,
multi-project planning (respectively Rough Cut Capacity Planning and Resource Constraint Project Scheduling Problem). Our main contributions are in modelling the periodic workload on tactical level considering uncertainties in macro-tasks work contents, and modelling the continuous workload on operational level considering uncertainties in tasks durations. We model uncertainties
by a fuzzy/possibilistic approach instead of a stochastic approach since very limited data are available. We refer to the problems as the Fuzzy RoughCut Capacity Problem (FRCCP) and the Fuzzy Resource Constraint Project Scheduling Problem (RCPSP).We apply our models to helicopter maintenance activity within the frame of the Helimaintenance project, an industrial project approved by the French Aerospace Valley cluster which aims at building a center for civil helicopter maintenance
Observation of temporary accommodation for construction workers according to the code of practice for temporary construction site workers amenities and accommodation (ms2593:2015) in Johor, Malaysia
The Malaysian government is currently improving the quality of workers temporary
accommodation by introducing MS2593:2015 (Code of Practice for Temporary Site Workers
Amenities and Accommodation) in 2015. It is in line with the initiative in the Construction
Industry Transformation Programme (2016-2020) to increase the quality and well-being of
construction workers in Malaysia. Thus, to gauge the current practice of temporary
accommodation on complying with the particular guideline, this paper has put forth the
observation of such accommodation towards elements in Section 3 within MS2593:2015. A total
of seventeen (17) temporary accommodation provided by Grade 6 and Grade 7 contractors in
Johor were selected and assessed. The results disclosed that most of the temporary
accommodation was not complying with the guideline, where only thirteen (13) out of fifty-eight
(58) elements have recorded full compliance (100%), and the lowest compliance percentage
(5.9%) are discovered in the Section 3.12 (Signage). In a nutshell, given the significant gap of
compliance between current practices of temporary accommodation and MS2593:2015, a
holistic initiative need to be in place for the guideline to be worthwhile
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