Uncertainty in life cycle costing for long-range infrastructure. Part I: leveling the playing field to address uncertainties

Purpose Life cycle costing (LCC) is a state-of-the-art method to analyze investment decisions in infrastructure projects. However, uncertainties inherent in long-term planning question the credibility of LCC results. Previous research has not systematically linked sources and methods to address this uncertainty. Part I of this series develops a framework to collect and categorize different sources of uncertainty and addressing methods. This systematization is a prerequisite to further analyze the suitability of methods and levels the playing field for part II. Methods Past reviews have dealt with selected issues of uncertainty in LCC. However, none has systematically collected uncertainties and linked methods to address them. No comprehensive categorization has been published to date. Part I addresses these two research gaps by conducting a systematic literature review. In a rigorous four-step approach, we first scrutinized major databases. Second, we performed a practical and methodological screening to identify in total 115 relevant publications, mostly case studies. Third, we applied content analysis using MAXQDA. Fourth, we illustrated results and concluded upon the research gaps. Results and discussion We identified 33 sources of uncertainty and 24 addressing methods. Sources of uncertainties were categorized according to (i) its origin, i.e., parameter, model, and scenario uncertainty and (ii) the nature of uncertainty, i.e., aleatoric or epistemic uncertainty. The methods to address uncertainties were classified into deterministic, probabilistic, possibilistic, and other methods. With regard to sources of uncertainties, lack of data and data quality was analyzed most often. Most uncertainties having been discussed were located in the use stage. With regard to methods, sensitivity analyses were applied most widely, while more complex methods such as Bayesian models were used less frequently. Data availability and the individual expertise of LCC practitioner foremost influence the selection of methods. Conclusions This article complements existing research by providing a thorough systematization of uncertainties in LCC. However, an unambiguous categorization of uncertainties is difficult and overlapping occurs. Such a systemizing approach is nevertheless necessary for further analyses and levels the playing field for readers not yet familiar with the topic. Part I concludes the following: First, an investigation about which methods are best suited to address a certain type of uncertainty is still outstanding. Second, an analysis of types of uncertainty that have been insufficiently addressed in previous LCC cases is still missing. Part II will focus on these research gaps

Efficient Maximum A-Posteriori Inference in Markov Logic and Application in Description Logics

Maximum a-posteriori (MAP) query in statistical relational models computes the most probable world given evidence and further knowledge about the domain. It is arguably one of the most important types of computational problems, since it is also used as a subroutine in weight learning algorithms. In this thesis, we discuss an improved inference algorithm and an application for MAP queries. We focus on Markov logic (ML) as statistical relational formalism. Markov logic combines Markov networks with first-order logic by attaching weights to first-order formulas. For inference, we improve existing work which translates MAP queries to integer linear programs (ILP). The motivation is that existing ILP solvers are very stable and fast and are able to precisely estimate the quality of an intermediate solution. In our work, we focus on improving the translation process such that we result in ILPs having fewer variables and fewer constraints. Our main contribution is the Cutting Plane Aggregation (CPA) approach which leverages symmetries in ML networks and parallelizes MAP inference. Additionally, we integrate the cutting plane inference (Riedel 2008) algorithm which significantly reduces the number of groundings by solving multiple smaller ILPs instead of one large ILP. We present the new Markov logic engine RockIt which outperforms state-of-the-art engines in standard Markov logic benchmarks. Afterwards, we apply the MAP query to description logics. Description logics (DL) are knowledge representation formalisms whose expressivity is higher than propositional logic but lower than first-order logic. The most popular DLs have been standardized in the ontology language OWL and are an elementary component in the Semantic Web. We combine Markov logic, which essentially follows the semantic of a log-linear model, with description logics to log-linear description logics. In log-linear description logic weights can be attached to any description logic axiom. Furthermore, we introduce a new query type which computes the most-probable 'coherent' world. Possible applications of log-linear description logics are mainly located in the area of ontology learning and data integration. With our novel log-linear description logic reasoner ELog, we experimentally show that more expressivity increases quality and that the solutions of optimal solving strategies have higher quality than the solutions of approximate solving strategies

Operational Decision Making under Uncertainty: Inferential, Sequential, and Adversarial Approaches

Modern security threats are characterized by a stochastic, dynamic, partially observable, and ambiguous operational environment. This dissertation addresses such complex security threats using operations research techniques for decision making under uncertainty in operations planning, analysis, and assessment. First, this research develops a new method for robust queue inference with partially observable, stochastic arrival and departure times, motivated by cybersecurity and terrorism applications. In the dynamic setting, this work develops a new variant of Markov decision processes and an algorithm for robust information collection in dynamic, partially observable and ambiguous environments, with an application to a cybersecurity detection problem. In the adversarial setting, this work presents a new application of counterfactual regret minimization and robust optimization to a multi-domain cyber and air defense problem in a partially observable environment

Augmented Computational Design: Methodical Application of Artificial Intelligence in Generative Design

This chapter presents methodological reflections on the necessity and utility of artificial intelligence in generative design. Specifically, the chapter discusses how generative design processes can be augmented by AI to deliver in terms of a few outcomes of interest or performance indicators while dealing with hundreds or thousands of small decisions. The core of the performance-based generative design paradigm is about making statistical or simulation-driven associations between these choices and consequences for mapping and navigating such a complex decision space. This chapter will discuss promising directions in Artificial Intelligence for augmenting decision-making processes in architectural design for mapping and navigating complex design spaces.Comment: This is the author's version of the book chapter Augmented Computational Design: Methodical Application of Artificial Intelligence in Generative Design. In Artificial Intelligence in Performance-Driven Design: Theories, Methods, and Tools Towards Sustainability, edited by Narjes Abbasabadi and Mehdi Ashayeri. Wiley, 202

Proceedings of the Third International Workshop on Neural Networks and Fuzzy Logic, volume 2

Papers presented at the Neural Networks and Fuzzy Logic Workshop sponsored by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration and cosponsored by the University of Houston, Clear Lake, held 1-3 Jun. 1992 at the Lyndon B. Johnson Space Center in Houston, Texas are included. During the three days approximately 50 papers were presented. Technical topics addressed included adaptive systems; learning algorithms; network architectures; vision; robotics; neurobiological connections; speech recognition and synthesis; fuzzy set theory and application, control and dynamics processing; space applications; fuzzy logic and neural network computers; approximate reasoning; and multiobject decision making

Water filtration by using apple and banana peels as activated carbon

Water filter is an important devices for reducing the contaminants in raw water. Activated from charcoal is used to absorb the contaminants. Fruit peels are some of the suitable alternative carbon to substitute the charcoal. Determining the role of fruit peels which were apple and banana peels powder as activated carbon in water filter is the main goal. Drying and blending the peels till they become powder is the way to allow them to absorb the contaminants. Comparing the results for raw water before and after filtering is the observation. After filtering the raw water, the reading for pH was 6.8 which is in normal pH and turbidity reading recorded was 658 NTU. As for the colour, the water becomes more clear compared to the raw water. This study has found that fruit peels such as banana and apple are an effective substitute to charcoal as natural absorbent

Quantum inspired approach for early classification of time series

Is it possible to apply some fundamental principles of quantum-computing to time series classi\ufb01cation algorithms? This is the initial spark that became the research question I decided to chase at the very beginning of my PhD studies. The idea came accidentally after reading a note on the ability of entanglement to express the correlation between two particles, even far away from each other. The test problem was also at hand because I was investigating on possible algorithms for real time bot detection, a challenging problem at present day, by means of statistical approaches for sequential classi\ufb01cation. The quantum inspired algorithm presented in this thesis stemmed as an evolution of the statistical method mentioned above: it is a novel approach to address binary and multinomial classi\ufb01cation of an incoming data stream, inspired by the principles of Quantum Computing, in order to ensure the shortest decision time with high accuracy. The proposed approach exploits the analogy between the intrinsic correlation of two or more particles and the dependence of each item in a data stream with the preceding ones. Starting from the a-posteriori probability of each item to belong to a particular class, we can assign a Qubit state representing a combination of the aforesaid probabilities for all available observations of the time series. By leveraging superposition and entanglement on subsequences of growing length, it is possible to devise a measure of membership to each class, thus enabling the system to take a reliable decision when a suf\ufb01cient level of con\ufb01dence is met. In order to provide an extensive and thorough analysis of the problem, a well-\ufb01tting approach for bot detection was replicated on our dataset and later compared with the statistical algorithm to determine the best option. The winner was subsequently examined against the new quantum-inspired proposal, showing the superior capability of the latter in both binary and multinomial classi\ufb01cation of data streams. The validation of quantum-inspired approach in a synthetically generated use case, completes the research framework and opens new perspectives in on-the-\ufb02y time series classi\ufb01cation, that we have just started to explore. Just to name a few ones, the algorithm is currently being tested with encouraging results in predictive maintenance and prognostics for automotive, in collaboration with University of Bradford (UK), and in action recognition from video streams