Time series shape association measures and local trend association patterns

© 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. The paper gives the new definition of non-statistical time series shape association measures that can measure positive and negative shape associations between time series. The local trend association measures based on linear regressions in sliding window are considered. The methods of extraction and presentation of positive and negative local trend association patterns from the pairs of time series are described. Examples of application of these methods to analysis of associations between securities data from Google Finance and between exchange rates are discussed. It was shown on the benchmark example and in the analysis of real time series that the correlation coefficient in spite of its fundamental role in statistics does not useful here and can cause confusion in analysis of time series shape similarity and shape associations

Acceleration of phenological advance and warming with latitude over the past century.

In the Northern Hemisphere, springtime events are frequently reported as advancing more rapidly at higher latitudes, presumably due to an acceleration of warming with latitude. However, this assumption has not been investigated in an analytical framework that simultaneously examines acceleration of warming with latitude while accounting for variation in phenological time series characteristics that might also co-vary with latitude. We analyzed 743 phenological trend estimates spanning 86 years and 42.6 degrees of latitude in the Northern Hemisphere, as well as rates of Northern Hemisphere warming over the same period and latitudinal range. We detected significant patterns of co-variation in phenological time series characteristics that may confound estimates of the magnitude of variation in trends with latitude. Notably, shorter and more recent time series tended to produce the strongest phenological trends, and these also tended to be from higher latitude studies. However, accounting for such variation only slightly modified the relationship between rates of phenological advance and latitude, which was highly significant. Furthermore, warming has increased non-linearly with latitude over the past several decades, most strongly since 1998 and northward of 59°N latitude. The acceleration of warming with latitude has likely contributed to an acceleration of phenological advance along the same gradient

Escherichia coli contamination and health aspects of soil and tomatoes (Solanum lycopersicum L.) subsurface drip irrigated with on-site treated domestic wastewater.

Faecal contamination of soil and tomatoes irrigated by sprinkler as well as surface and subsurface drip irrigation with treated domestic wastewater were compared in 2007 and 2008 at experimental sites in Crete and Italy. Wastewater was treated by Membrane Bio Reactor (MBR) technology, gravel filtration or UV-treatment before used for irrigation. Irrigation water, soil and tomato samples were collected during two cropping seasons and enumerated for the faecal indicator bacterium Escherichia coli and helminth eggs. The study found elevated levels of E. coli in irrigation water (mean: Italy 1753 cell forming unit (cfu) per 100 ml and Crete 488 cfu per 100 ml) and low concentrations of E. coli in soil (mean: Italy 95 cfu g(-1) and Crete 33 cfu g(-1)). Only two out of 84 tomato samples in Crete contained E. coli (mean: 2700 cfu g(-1)) while tomatoes from Italy were free of E. coli. No helminth eggs were found in the irrigation water or on the tomatoes from Crete. Two tomato samples out of 36 from Italy were contaminated by helminth eggs (mean: 0.18 eggs g(-1)) and had been irrigated with treated wastewater and tap water, respectively. Pulsed Field Gel Electrophoresis DNA fingerprints of E. coli collected during 2008 showed no identical pattern between water and soil isolates which indicates contribution from other environmental sources with E. coli, e.g. wildlife. A quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) model with Monte Carlo simulations adopted by the World Health Organization (WHO) found the use of tap water and treated wastewater to be associated with risks that exceed permissible limits as proposed by the WHO (1.0 × 10(-3) disease risk per person per year) for the accidental ingestion of irrigated soil by farmers (Crete: 0.67 pppy and Italy: 1.0 pppy). The QMRA found that the consumption of tomatoes in Italy was deemed to be safe while permissible limits were exceeded in Crete (1.0 pppy). Overall the quality of tomatoes was safe for human consumption since the disease risk found on Crete was based on only two contaminated tomato samples. It is a fundamental limitation of the WHO QMRA model that it is not based on actual pathogen numbers, but rather on numbers of E. coli converted to estimated pathogen numbers, since it is widely accepted that there is poor correlation between E. coli and viral and parasite pathogens. Our findings also stress the importance of the external environment, typically wildlife, as sources of faecal contamination

Quantification of a distributive fluvial system; the Salt Wash DFS of the Morrison Formation, SW USA

Peer reviewedPostprin

Family stressors and children's outcomes

The research reported here aimed to identify:1.which family stress factors and parental behaviours were associated with worse outcomes for children at age 7 andwhich factors helped children to succeed2.whether stressful life events experienced at different periods of childhood were associated with worse outcomes in adolescence.Differences in children’s outcomeshave been shown to emerge early in life, and to be linked to both family circumstances, such as social disadvantage, and parenting behaviours, such as parenting style and activities with the child. Both these aspects of a child’s environment are important for their early cognitive and emotional development. But it is not clear whether these early differences, and the factors associated with them, persist up to age 7. Previous research has also shown that stressful life events are associated with worse outcomesfor children. However, it has not previously been possible to explore whether particular life events are especially detrimental, whether they impact across different sorts of children’s outcomes(educational, social etc.), and whether the effects of early childhood events persist into adolescence. In order to target interventions, it is clearly important to understand which family circumstances are significant for child wellbeing at different ages, and how that varies across outcomes. A range of children’s outcomeswere examined using data from the Millennium Cohort Study (MCS) and the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC). At age 7, these were verbal cognitive skills, non-verbal skills, maths skills, Key Stage 1 (KS1) attainment and behavioural difficulties. For teenagers, the following outcomes were explored at age 13-14: Key Stage 3 (KS3) attainment; emotional, behavioural, social, and school wellbeing; and Key Stage 4 (KS4) results at age 16. Key findingsA wide range of family background factors and parental behaviours are associated with children’s outcomesat age 7. These tend to be the same factors that are important at earlier ages, and include parenting behaviours, family structure andsocio-economic position of the family.Family poverty, child disability and the child’s mother having higher qualifications are consistently associated with children faring respectively worse (poverty and disability) and better (higher maternal qualifications) across all five age 7 outcomes, holding other factors constant.No other factors are associated with all five outcomes.Different aspects of family background matter for different outcomes.Children can experience a range of stressful life events. Extreme stressful events, such as homelessness, victimisation or abuse, can have long-term effects on children’s outcomes

Symptoms of complexity in a tourism system

Tourism destinations behave as dynamic evolving complex systems, encompassing numerous factors and activities which are interdependent and whose relationships might be highly nonlinear. Traditional research in this field has looked after a linear approach: variables and relationships are monitored in order to forecast future outcomes with simplified models and to derive implications for management organisations. The limitations of this approach have become apparent in many cases, and several authors claim for a new and different attitude. While complex systems ideas are amongst the most promising interdisciplinary research themes emerged in the last few decades, very little has been done so far in the field of tourism. This paper presents a brief overview of the complexity framework as a means to understand structures, characteristics, relationships, and explores the implications and contributions of the complexity literature on tourism systems. The objective is to allow the reader to gain a deeper appreciation of this point of view.Comment: 32 pages, 3 figures, 1 table; accepted in Tourism Analysi