557 research outputs found

    Portfolio Selection Problems with Normal Mixture Distributions Including Fuzziness

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    In this paper, several portfolio selection problems with normal mixture distributions including fuzziness are proposed. Until now, many researchers have proposed portfolio models based on the stochastic approach, and there are some models considering both random and ambiguous conditions, particularly using fuzzy random or random fuzzy variables. However, the model including normal mixture distributions with fuzzy numbers has not been proposed yet. Our proposed problems are not well-defined problems due to randomness and fuzziness. Therefore, setting some criterions and introducing chance constrains, main problems are transformed into deterministic programming problems. Finally, we construct a solution method to obtain a global optimal solution of the problem

    Assessing the Number of Components in Mixture Models: a Review.

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    Despite the widespread application of finite mixture models, the decision of how many classes are required to adequately represent the data is, according to many authors, an important, but unsolved issue. This work aims to review, describe and organize the available approaches designed to help the selection of the adequate number of mixture components (including Monte Carlo test procedures, information criteria and classification-based criteria); we also provide some published simulation results about their relative performance, with the purpose of identifying the scenarios where each criterion is more effective (adequate).Finite mixture; number of mixture components; information criteria; simulation studies.

    Estimation of flexible fuzzy GARCH models for conditional density estimation

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    In this work we introduce a new flexible fuzzy GARCH model for conditional density estimation. The model combines two different types of uncertainty, namely fuzziness or linguistic vagueness, and probabilistic uncertainty. The probabilistic uncertainty is modeled through a GARCH model while the fuzziness or linguistic vagueness is present in the antecedent and combination of the rule base system. The fuzzy GARCH model under study allows for a linguistic interpretation of the gradual changes in the output density, providing a simple understanding of the process. Such a system can capture different properties of data, such as fat tails, skewness and multimodality in one single model. This type of models can be useful in many fields such as macroeconomic analysis, quantitative finance and risk management. The relation to existing similar models is discussed, while the properties, interpretation and estimation of the proposed model are provided. The model performance is illustrated in simulated time series data exhibiting complex behavior and a real data application of volatility forecasting for the S&P 500 daily returns series

    Uncertain random time-cost trade-off problem

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    Conditional Density Models Integrating Fuzzy and Probabilistic Representations of Uncertainty

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    __Abstract__ Conditional density estimation is an important problem in a variety of areas such as system identification, machine learning, artificial intelligence, empirical economics, macroeconomic analysis, quantitative finance and risk management. This work considers the general problem of conditional density estimation, i.e., estimating and predicting the density of a response variable as a function of covariates. The semi-parametric models proposed and developed in this work combine fuzzy and probabilistic representations of uncertainty, while making very few assumptions regarding the functional form of the response variable's density or changes of the functional form across the space of covariates. These models possess sufficient generalization power to approximate a non-standard density and the ability to describe the underlying process using simple linguistic descriptors despite the complexity and possible non-linearity of this process. These novel models are applied to real world quantitative finance and risk management problems by analyzing financial time-series data containing non-trivial statistical properties, such as fat tails, asymmetric distributions and changing variation over time

    Copula-based fuzzy clustering of spatial time series

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    This paper contributes to the existing literature on the analysis of spatial time series presenting a new clustering algorithm called COFUST, i.e. COpula-based FUzzy clustering algorithm for Spatial Time series. The underlying idea of this algorithm is to perform a fuzzy Partitioning Around Medoids (PAM) clustering using copula-based approach to interpret comovements of time series. This generalisation allows both to extend usual clustering methods for time series based on Pearson’s correlation and to capture the uncertainty that arises assigning units to clusters. Furthermore, its flexibility permits to include directly in the algorithm the spatial information. Our approach is presented and discussed using both simulated and real data, highlighting its main advantages
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