Connecting adaptive behaviour and expectations in models of innovation: The Potential Role of Artificial Neural Networks

In this methodological work I explore the possibility of explicitly modelling expectations conditioning the R&D decisions of firms. In order to isolate this problem from the controversies of cognitive science, I propose a black box strategy through the concept of “internal model”. The last part of the article uses artificial neural networks to model the expectations of firms in a model of industry dynamics based on Nelson & Winter (1982)

Incremental evolution strategy for function optimization

This paper presents a novel evolutionary approach for function optimization Incremental Evolution Strategy (IES). Two strategies are proposed. One is to evolve the input variables incrementally. The whole evolution consists of several phases and one more variable is focused in each phase. The number of phases is equal to the number of variables in maximum. Each phase is composed of two stages: in the single-variable evolution (SVE) stage, evolution is taken on one independent variable in a series of cutting planes; in the multi-variable evolving (MVE) stage, the initial population is formed by integrating the populations obtained by the SVE and the MVE in the last phase. And the evolution is taken on the incremented variable set. The other strategy is a hybrid of particle swarm optimization (PSO) and evolution strategy (ES). PSO is applied to adjust the cutting planes/hyper-planes (in SVEs/MVEs) while (1+1)-ES is applied to searching optima in the cutting planes/hyper-planes. The results of experiments show that the performance of IES is generally better than that of three other evolutionary algorithms, improved normal GA, PSO and SADE_CERAF, in the sense that IES finds solutions closer to the true optima and with more optimal objective values

Non Expectations and Adaptive Behaviours: the Missing Trade-off in Models of Innovation

We explore the modelling of the determination of the level of R&D investment of firms. This means that we do not tackle the decision of being an innovator or not, nor the adoption of a new technology. We exclude these decisions and focus on the situations where firms invest in internal R&D in order to produce an innovation. In that case the problem is to determine the level of R&D investment. Our interest is to analyse how expectation and adaptation can be combined in the modelling of R&D investment rules. In the literature both dimensions are generally split up: rational expectations are assumed in neoclassical models whereas alternative approaches (institutional and/or evolutionary) generally adopt a purely adaptive representation.Bounded rationality, learning, expectations, innovation dynamics.

Distributed Adaptive Networks: A Graphical Evolutionary Game-Theoretic View

Distributed adaptive filtering has been considered as an effective approach for data processing and estimation over distributed networks. Most existing distributed adaptive filtering algorithms focus on designing different information diffusion rules, regardless of the nature evolutionary characteristic of a distributed network. In this paper, we study the adaptive network from the game theoretic perspective and formulate the distributed adaptive filtering problem as a graphical evolutionary game. With the proposed formulation, the nodes in the network are regarded as players and the local combiner of estimation information from different neighbors is regarded as different strategies selection. We show that this graphical evolutionary game framework is very general and can unify the existing adaptive network algorithms. Based on this framework, as examples, we further propose two error-aware adaptive filtering algorithms. Moreover, we use graphical evolutionary game theory to analyze the information diffusion process over the adaptive networks and evolutionarily stable strategy of the system. Finally, simulation results are shown to verify the effectiveness of our analysis and proposed methods.Comment: Accepted by IEEE Transactions on Signal Processin

Evolving Ensemble Fuzzy Classifier

The concept of ensemble learning offers a promising avenue in learning from data streams under complex environments because it addresses the bias and variance dilemma better than its single model counterpart and features a reconfigurable structure, which is well suited to the given context. While various extensions of ensemble learning for mining non-stationary data streams can be found in the literature, most of them are crafted under a static base classifier and revisits preceding samples in the sliding window for a retraining step. This feature causes computationally prohibitive complexity and is not flexible enough to cope with rapidly changing environments. Their complexities are often demanding because it involves a large collection of offline classifiers due to the absence of structural complexities reduction mechanisms and lack of an online feature selection mechanism. A novel evolving ensemble classifier, namely Parsimonious Ensemble pENsemble, is proposed in this paper. pENsemble differs from existing architectures in the fact that it is built upon an evolving classifier from data streams, termed Parsimonious Classifier pClass. pENsemble is equipped by an ensemble pruning mechanism, which estimates a localized generalization error of a base classifier. A dynamic online feature selection scenario is integrated into the pENsemble. This method allows for dynamic selection and deselection of input features on the fly. pENsemble adopts a dynamic ensemble structure to output a final classification decision where it features a novel drift detection scenario to grow the ensemble structure. The efficacy of the pENsemble has been numerically demonstrated through rigorous numerical studies with dynamic and evolving data streams where it delivers the most encouraging performance in attaining a tradeoff between accuracy and complexity.Comment: this paper has been published by IEEE Transactions on Fuzzy System

Selection-Based Learning: The Coevolution Of Internal And External Selection In High-Velocity Environments

To understand the effects of selection on firm-level learning, this study synthesizes two contrasting views of evolution. Internal selection theorists view managers in multiproduct firms as the primary agents of evolutionary change because they decide whether individual products and technologies are retained or eliminated. In contrast, external selection theorists contend that the environment drives evolution because it determines whether entire firms live or die. Though these theories differ, they describe tightly interwoven processes. In assessing the coevolution of internal and external selection among personal computer manufacturers across a 20-year period, we found that (1) firms learned cumulatively and adaptively from internal and partial external selection, the latter occurring when the environment killed part but not all of a firm; (2) internal and partial external selection coevolved, as each affected the other's future rate and the odds of firm failure; (3) partial external selection had a greater effect on future outcomes than internal selection; and (4) the lessons gleaned from prior selection were reflected in a firm's ability to develop new products, making that an important mediator between past and future selection events.Managemen