Game theoretic modeling and analysis : A co-evolutionary, agent-based approach

Ph.DDOCTOR OF PHILOSOPH

Morality as natural history

What are moral values and where do they come from? David Hume argued that moral values were the product of a range of passions, inherent to human nature, that aim at the common good of society. Recent developments in game theory, evolutionary biology, animal behaviour, psychology and neuroscience suggest that Hume was right to suppose that humans have such passions. This dissertation reviews these developments, and considers their implications for moral philosophy. I first explain what Darwinian adaptations are, and how they generate behaviour. I then explain that, contrary to the Hobbesian caricature of life in the state of nature, evolutionary theory leads us to expect that organisms will be social, cooperative and even altruistic under certain circumstances. I introduce four main types of cooperation: kin altruism, coordination to mutual advantage, reciprocity and conflict resolution and provide examples of "adaptations for cooperation" from nonhuman species. I then review the evidence for equivalent adaptations for cooperation in humans. Next, I show how this Humean-Darwinian account of the moral sentiments can be used to make sense of traditional positions in meta-ethics; how it provides a rich deductive framework in which to locate and make sense of a wide variety of apparently contradictory positions in traditional normative ethics; and how it clearly demarcates the problems of applied ethics. I defend this version of ethical naturalism against the charge that it commits "the naturalistic fallacy". I conclude that evolutionary theory provides the best account yet of the origins and status of moral values, and that moral philosophy should be thought of as a branch of natural history

Information system's project management and the phenomenon of trust.

The aim of this research was to investigate how the continual low success rate of IS projects could be improved through an evaluation of success and failure factors. A literature review revealed a comprehensive but uncoordinated history of research into the identification of the critical factors. This proved to be inconclusive, but did indicate that project management contributed more to the failures than the technology. A model for expressing the complexity of IS project environments is proposed to aid project teams with their strategy. Also, the criteria for measuring success of both project managemenat nd IS projects has been extended. Although many disciplines had considered trust as a success factor, this was missing within the domain of project management. To examine the effect of trust in an IS project environment a game termed Project Paradox was designed and run. A lack of trust was found to be compounded by conflicting objectives inherent within IS projects. It is recommended that the issues relating to trust should be considered and managed as an integral part of a risk analysis. To enable this to be realised in practice a framework for a Trust Audit is proposed. The thesis concludes with a number of research initiatives aimed at improving the success rate of IS projects

Characterization of self-organization processes in complex networks

Programa Doutoral em Física (MAP-fis)A estrutura de interações sociais numa população é muitas vezes modelada através de uma rede complexa que representa os indivíduos e respetivas relações sociais. Estas estruturas são conhecidas por afetarem de forma fundamental os processos dinâmicos que suportam. A caracterização desse efeito é, no entanto, uma tarefa complicada pois o tratamento matemático destes sistemas requer o estudo de um espaço de estados de grande dimensão, limitando a aplicabilidade de abordagens analíticas e numéricas. Esta tese teve como objetivo desenvolver métodos, inspirados na Física Estatística dos Sistemas Fora do Equilíbrio, com o fim de caracterizar processos dinâmicos em redes complexas. Nesta tese demonstramos que a estrutura de uma população naturalmente induz a emergência de padrões de correlações entre indivíduos que partilham traços semelhantes, um fenómeno também identificado em estudos empíricos. Estes padrões de correlações são independentes do tipo de processo dinâmico considerado, do tipo de informação que se propaga sendo observados numa classe alargada de redes complexas. Mostramos também que propriedades como o clustering e a densidade de ligações da rede têm um papel fundamental nos padrões de correlações emergentes. Outra questão fundamental diz respeito à relação entre as dinâmicas local e a global em redes sociais. De facto, as redes sociais afetam de forma tão fundamental os processos dinâmicos que suportam que em muitas situações o comportamento coletivo observado não tem qualquer relação aparente com a dinâmica local na sua génese. Este é um problema comum a muitos sistemas complexos e tipicamente associado a fenómenos emergentes e de auto-organização. Neste trabalho esta questão é explorada no contexto do problema da Cooperação e no âmbito da Teoria de Jogos Evolutiva. Para esse fim introduzimos uma quantidade que é estimada numericamente e a que damos o nome de Average Gradient of Selection (AGOS). Esta quantidade, relaciona de forma efetiva as dinâmicas local e global, possibilitando a descrição do processo de auto-organização em populações estruturadas. Através do AGOS mostramos que quando as interações entre indivíduos são descritas através do Dilema do Prisioneiro, uma metáfora popular no estudo da cooperação, a dinâmica coletiva emergente é sensível à forma da rede de interações entre os indivíduos. Em particular, demonstramos que quando a rede é homogénea (heterogénea) no que respeita à distribuição de grau o Dilema do Prisioneiro é transformado numa dinâmica coletiva de coexistência (coordenação). Mostramos ainda que esta transformação depende da pressão de seleção (associada ao grau de determinismo no processo de decisão dos indivíduos) e de taxa de mutações (a adoção espontânea de um novo comportamento por parte de um individuo) consideradas. A relação entre estas duas varáveis pode também resultar em alterações de regimes dinâmicos cujo o resultado pode, em casos particulares, resultar no desfecho drástico para a evolução da cooperação. Finalmente, fazemos uso do AGOS para caracterizar a dinâmica evolutiva da cooperação no caso em que a estrutura co-evolve. Demonstramos que na presença de uma estrutura social a dinâmica global é semelhante à de um jogo de coordenação entre N-pessoas, cujas características dependem de forma sensível das escalas de tempo relativas entre a evolução de comportamentos e a evolução da estrutura. Uma vez mais, a dinâmica global emergente contrasta com o Dilema do Prisioneiro que caracteriza as interações locais entre os indivíduos. Acreditamos que o AGOS, que pode ser facilmente aplicado no estudo de outros processos dinâmicos, proporciona uma contribuição significativa para o melhor entendimento de Sistemas Complexos, em particular aqueles em que as interações entre os elementos constituintes são bem definidos através uma rede complexa.The structure of social interactions in a population is often modeled by means of a complex network representing individuals and their social ties. These structures are known to fundamentally impact the processes they support. However, the characterization of how structure impacts a dynamical process is by no means an easy task. Indeed, the large configuration space spanned tends to limit the systematic applicability of numerical methods, while analytical treatments have failed to provide a good description of the system dynamics. The aim of this thesis was to develop methods inspired in the Statistical Physics of Systems far from equilibrium to characterize dynamical processes on complex networks. In this thesis we show how the structure of a population naturally induces the emergence of correlations between individuals that share similar traits, which is in accordance empirical evidence. These, so called, ’peer-influence” correlation patterns are independent of the type of dynamical process under consideration, the type of information being spread while being ubiquitous among a wide variety of network topologies. We have also find evidence that central to the ’peer-influence” patterns are topological features such as the clustering and the sparsity of the underlying network of interactions. Another fundamental problem concerns the relationship between local and global dynamics in social networks. Indeed, social networks affect in such a fundamental way the dynamics of the population they support that the collective, population-wide behavior that one observes often bears no relation to the individual processes it stems from. This is in fact a common problem among many Complex Systems typically associated with self-organization and emerging phenomena. Here we study this issue in the context of the problem of Cooperation and in the realm of Evolutionary Game Theory. To that end we introduce a numerically estimated mean-field quantity that we call the Average Gradient of Selection (AGOS). This quantity is able to effectively connect the local and global dynamics, providing a way to track the self-organization of cooperators and defectors in networked populations. With the AGOS we show that when individuals engage in a Prisoner’s Dilemma, a popular cooperation metaphor, the emerging collective dynamics depends on the shape of the underlying network of interactions. In particular, we show that degree homogeneous (heterogeneous) networks the Prisoner’s Dilemma is transformed into a collective coexistence (coordination) dynamics, contrasting with the defector dominance of the local dynamics. We further show that the extent to which these emergent phenomena are observed in structured populations is conditional on the selection pressure (the uncertainty associated with the decision making) and the rate of mutations (the spontaneously adoption of new behaviors by individuals) under consideration. Interestingly, the interplay between selection pressure and mutation rates can lead to drastic regime shifts in the evolution of cooperation. Finally, we make use of the AGOS to characterize the evolutionary dynamics of cooperation in the case of a co-evolving social structure. We demonstrate that in an adaptive social structure the population-wide dynamics resembles that of a N-person coordination game, whose characteristics depend sensitively on the relative time-scales between behavioral and network co-evolution. Once more, the resulting collective dynamics contrasts with the two-person Prisoner’s Dilemma that characterizes how individuals interact locally. We argue that the AGOS, which can be readily applied to other dynamical contexts and processes, provides a significant contribution to a better understanding of Complex Systems involving populations in which who interacts with whom is well-defined by a complex network

Neurophysiological correlates underlying social behavioural adjustment of conformity

[eng] Conformity is the act of changing one’s behaviour to adjust to other human beings. It is a crucial social adaptation that happens when people cooperate, where one sacrifices their own perception, expectations, or beliefs to reach convergence with another person. The aim of the present study was to increase the understanding of the neurophysiological underpinnings regarding the social behavioural adjustment of conformity. We start by introducing cooperation and how it is ingrained in human behaviour. Then we explore the different processes that the brain requires for the social behavioural adjustment of conformity. To engage in this social adaptation, a person needs a self-referenced learning mechanism based on a predictive model that helps them track the prediction errors from unexpected events. Also, the brain uses its monitoring and control systems to encode different value functions used in action selection. The use of different learning models in neuroscience, such as reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms, has been a success story identifying learning systems by means of the mapped activity of different regions in the brain. Importantly, experimental paradigms which has been used to study conformity have not been based in a social interaction setting and, hence, the results, cannot be used to explain an inherently social phenomenon. The main goal of the present thesis is to study the neurophysiological mechanisms underlying the social behavioural adjustment of conformity and its modulation with repeated interaction. To reach this goal, we have first designed a new experimental task where conformity appears spontaneously between two persons and in a reiterative way. This design exposes learning acquisition processes, which require iterative loops, as well as other cognitive control mechanisms such as feedback processing, value-based decision making and attention. The first study shows that people who previously cooperate increase their level of convergence and report a significantly more satisfying overall experience. In addition, participants learning on their counterparts’ behaviour can be explained using a RL algorithm as opposed to when they do not have previously cooperated. In the second study, we have studied the event-related potentials (ERP) and oscillatory power underlying conformity. ERP results show different levels of cognitive engagement that are associated to distinct levels of conformity. Also, time-frequency analysis shows evidence in theta, alpha and beta related to different functions such as cognitive control, attention and, also, reward processing, supporting the idea that convergence between dyads acts as a social reward. Finally, in the third study, we explored the intra- and inter- oscillatory connectivity between electrodes related to behavioural convergence. In intra-brain oscillatory connectivity coherence, we have found two different dynamics related to attention and executive functions in alpha. Also, we have found that the learning about peer’s behaviour as computed using a RL is mediated by theta oscillatory connectivity. Consequently, combined evidence from Study 2 and Study 3 suggests that both cognitive control and learning computations happening in the social behavioural adaptation of conformity are signalled in theta frequency band. The present work is one of the first studies describing, with credible evidence, that conformity, when this occurs willingly and spontaneously rather than induced, engages different brain activity underlying reward-guided learning, cognitive control, and attention.[spa] La conformidad es el acto de cambiar el comportamiento de uno a favor de ajustarnos a otros seres humanos. Se trata de una adaptación crucial que ocurre cuando la gente coopera, donde uno sacrifica su propia percepción, expectativas o creencias en aras de conseguir una convergencia con la otra persona. El objetivo del presente estudio ha sido tratar de aportar a la comprensión de las estructuras neurofisiológicas que soportan un ajuste social como el de la conformidad. En la primera parte de esta tesis comenzamos hablando de la cooperación y lo profundamente arraigada que está en nuestro comportamiento. Más tarde exploramos diferentes procesos que el cerebro requiere en el ajuste social de la conformidad. Así pues, para involucrarse en esta adaptación social, una persona requiere de un mecanismo de aprendizaje auto-referenciado basado en un modelo predictivo que le ayude a seguir el rastro de los errores de predicción que acompañan a los eventos inesperados. Además, el cerebro usa sus sistemas de control y predicción para codificar diferentes funciones de valor usadas en la selección de acción. El uso de diferentes modelos de aprendizaje en neurociencia, como los algoritmos de aprendizaje por refuerzo (RL), han sido una historia de éxito a la hora de identificar los sistemas de aprendizaje a través del mapeo de la actividad de diferentes regiones del cerebro. Es importante destacar que los paradigmas experimentales que se han usado para estudiar la conformidad no se han basado en entornos de interacción social y que, por lo tanto, sus resultados no pueden usarse para explicar un fenómeno inherentemente social. El objetivo principal de la presente tesis es el estudio de los mecanismos neurofisiológicos que fundamentan el comportamiento de ajuste social de la conformidad y su modulación con la interacción repetida. Para alcanzar este objetivo, primero hemos diseñado una nueva tarea experimental en la que la conformidad aparece de forma espontánea entre dos personas y, además, de forma reiterativa. Este diseño permite exponer tanto los procesos de adquisición del aprendizaje, que requieren de ciclos iterativos, así como otros mecanismos de control cognitivo tales como el procesamiento de la retroalimentación, las tomas de decisiones basadas en procesos valorativos y la atención. El primer estudio nos muestra que la gente que coopera previamente incrementa sus niveles de convergencia y reportan significativamente una experiencia generalmente más satisfactoria en el experimento. Adicionalmente, un modelo de RL nos explica que los participantes tratan de aprender del comportamiento de sus parejas en mayor medida si estos han cooperado previamente. En el segundo estudio, hemos estudiado los potenciales relacionados con eventos (ERP) y el poder de las oscilaciones que sustentan la conformidad. Los estudios de ERP muestran diferentes niveles de implicación cognitiva asociados con diferentes niveles de conformidad. Además, los análisis de tiempo-frecuencia muestran evidencia en theta, alfa y beta relacionados con diferentes funciones como el control cognitivo, la atención, y, también, el procesamiento de la recompensa, apoyando la idea de que la convergencia entre díadas actúa como una recompensa social. Finalmente, en el tercer estudio, exploramos la conectividad oscilatoria intra e inter entre electrodos que se pudieran relacionar con la conducta de convergencia. A propósito de la conectividad oscilatoria coherente intra, hemos hallado dos dinámicas relacionadas con la atención y las funciones ejecutivas en alfa. Asimismo, hemos encontrado que el aprendizaje de la conducta de la pareja computada a través de RL está mediada a través de la conectividad oscilatoria de theta. Consecuentemente, la evidencia combinada entre el estudio 2 y el estudio 3 sugiere que conjuntamente el control cognitivo y las computaciones de aprendizaje que ocurren en la conducta de adaptación social de la conformidad están relacionadas con la actividad de la banda de frecuencia theta. Este trabajo constituye uno de los primeros estudios que describen, con evidencia creíble, que la conformidad, cuando ocurre voluntaria y espontáneamente a diferencia cuando esta es inducida, involucra actividad del cerebro que se fundamenta en el aprendizaje guiado por reforzamiento, el control cognitivo y la atención

Using MapReduce Streaming for Distributed Life Simulation on the Cloud

Distributed software simulations are indispensable in the study of large-scale life models but often require the use of technically complex lower-level distributed computing frameworks, such as MPI. We propose to overcome the complexity challenge by applying the emerging MapReduce (MR) model to distributed life simulations and by running such simulations on the cloud. Technically, we design optimized MR streaming algorithms for discrete and continuous versions of Conway’s life according to a general MR streaming pattern. We chose life because it is simple enough as a testbed for MR’s applicability to a-life simulations and general enough to make our results applicable to various lattice-based a-life models. We implement and empirically evaluate our algorithms’ performance on Amazon’s Elastic MR cloud. Our experiments demonstrate that a single MR optimization technique called strip partitioning can reduce the execution time of continuous life simulations by 64%. To the best of our knowledge, we are the first to propose and evaluate MR streaming algorithms for lattice-based simulations. Our algorithms can serve as prototypes in the development of novel MR simulation algorithms for large-scale lattice-based a-life models.https://digitalcommons.chapman.edu/scs_books/1014/thumbnail.jp

Information system's project management and the phenomenon of trust

The aim of this research was to investigate how the continual low success rate of IS projects could be improved through an evaluation of success and failure factors. A literature review revealed a comprehensive but uncoordinated history of research into the identification of the critical factors. This proved to be inconclusive, but did indicate that project management contributed more to the failures than the technology. A model for expressing the complexity of IS project environments is proposed to aid project teams with their strategy. Also, the criteria for measuring success of both project managemenat nd IS projects has been extended. Although many disciplines had considered trust as a success factor, this was missing within the domain of project management. To examine the effect of trust in an IS project environment a game termed Project Paradox was designed and run. A lack of trust was found to be compounded by conflicting objectives inherent within IS projects. It is recommended that the issues relating to trust should be considered and managed as an integral part of a risk analysis. To enable this to be realised in practice a framework for a Trust Audit is proposed. The thesis concludes with a number of research initiatives aimed at improving the success rate of IS projects.EThOS - Electronic Theses Online ServiceGBUnited Kingdo

Information system's project management and the phenomenon of trust

The aim of this research was to investigate how the continual low success rate of IS projects could be improved through an evaluation of success and failure factors. A literature review revealed a comprehensive but uncoordinated history of research into the identification of the critical factors. This proved to be inconclusive, but did indicate that project management contributed more to the failures than the technology. A model for expressing the complexity of IS project environments is proposed to aid project teams with their strategy. Also, the criteria for measuring success of both project managemenat nd IS projects has been extended. Although many disciplines had considered trust as a success factor, this was missing within the domain of project management. To examine the effect of trust in an IS project environment a game termed Project Paradox was designed and run. A lack of trust was found to be compounded by conflicting objectives inherent within IS projects. It is recommended that the issues relating to trust should be considered and managed as an integral part of a risk analysis. To enable this to be realised in practice a framework for a Trust Audit is proposed. The thesis concludes with a number of research initiatives aimed at improving the success rate of IS projects.EThOS - Electronic Theses Online ServiceGBUnited Kingdo

The Cultural Evolution of Economic Development

Economic development has several stages, from the exchange of tools and weapons in prehistory, to the adoption of money systems, to globalised economies driven by digitally-represented currencies. These stages present different challenges to societies, but also common ones. Perhaps the most important of these is cooperation. Exchange puts parties in positions vulnerable to exploitation, as they have to give payment in anticipation of goods, or goods in anticipation of payment. At its origin, money use creates a similar situation in which a party gives up valuable objects for a promise of future repayment. Explaining the diversity in economic performance and money systems therefore requires consideration of ecological and cultural factors that shape the levels of cooperation in societies. History can also have an influence on this diversity. Events in a society’s history can have persistent effects on its culture and institutions, and more general patterns of shared history can determine how culturally similar societies are. A cultural evolutionary framework can be used to synthesise these different factors as part of the same explanation. Historical experiences, the ecology and cultural traits all shape variation in each other and create conditions that determine the adaptiveness of cooperation, and therefore the potential for money use and large-scale economic activity to emerge and spread. Using a multiple method and multiple hypothesis approach, in this thesis I seek to examine existing theories for variation in economic development and money use, and generate and test new hypotheses using a cultural evolutionary framework