659 research outputs found

    Modelling tourism demand to Spain with machine learning techniques. The impact of forecast horizon on model selection

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    This study assesses the influence of the forecast horizon on the forecasting performance of several machine learning techniques. We compare the fo recastaccuracy of Support Vector Regression (SVR) to Neural Network (NN) models, using a linear model as a benchmark. We focus on international tourism demand to all seventeen regions of Spain. The SVR with a Gaussian radial basis function kernel outperforms the rest of the models for the longest forecast horizons. We also find that machine learning methods improve their forecasting accuracy with respect to linear models as forecast horizons increase. This results shows the suitability of SVR for medium and long term forecasting.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

    Support vector machine based classification in condition monitoring of induction motors

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    Continuous and trouble-free operation of induction motors is an essential part of modern power and production plants. Faults and failures of electrical machinery may cause remarkable economical losses but also highly dangerous situations. In addition to analytical and knowledge-based models, application of data-based models has established a firm position in the induction motor fault diagnostics during the last decade. For example, pattern recognition with Neural Networks (NN) is widely studied. Support Vector Machine (SVM) is a novel machine learning method introduced in early 90's. It is based on the statistical learning theory presented by V.N. Vapnik, and it has been successfully applied to numerous classification and pattern recognition problems such as text categorization, image recognition and bioinformatics. SVM based classifier is built to minimize the structural misclassification risk, whereas conventional classification techniques often apply minimization of the empirical risk. Therefore, SVM is claimed to lead enhanced generalisation properties. Further, application of SVM results in the global solution for a classification problem. Thirdly, SVM based classification is attractive, because its efficiency does not directly depend on the dimension of classified entities. This property is very useful in fault diagnostics, because the number of fault classification features does not have to be drastically limited. However, SVM has not yet been widely studied in the area of fault diagnostics. Specifically, in the condition monitoring of induction motor, it does not seem to have been considered before this research. In this thesis, a SVM based classification scheme is designed for different tasks in induction motor fault diagnostics and for partial discharge analysis of insulation condition monitoring. Several variables are compared as fault indicators, and forces on rotor are found to be important in fault detection instead of motor current that is currently widely studied. The measurement of forces is difficult, but easily measurable vibrations are directly related to the forces. Hence, vibration monitoring is considered in more detail as the medium for the motor fault diagnostics. SVM classifiers are essentially 2-class classifiers. In addition to the induction motor fault diagnostics, the results of this thesis cover various methods for coupling SVMs for carrying out a multi-class classification problem.reviewe

    Visa trial of international trade: evidence from support vector machines and neural networks

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    International trade depends on networking, interaction and in-person meetings which stimulate cross-border travels. The countries are seeking policies to encourage inbound mobility to support bilateral trade, tourism, and foreign direct investments. Some nations have been implementing liberal visa regimes as an important part of facilitating policies in view of security concerns. Turkey has been among the nations introducing liberal visa policies to support trade in the last decade and recorded significant increases in the volumes of exports. In this paper, we employed machine learning methodologies, Support vector machines (SVM) and Neural networks (NN), to investigate the facilitating impact of liberal visa policies on bilateral trade, using the export data from Turkey for the period of 2000–2014. The research disentangled the variables that have the strongest impact on trade utilizing SVM and NN models and exhibited that visa policies have significant impacts on the bilateral trade. More relaxed visa policies are recommended for the countries in the pursuit of increasing exports

    Support Vector Regression Based GARCH Model with Application to Forecasting Volatility of Financial Returns

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    In recent years, support vector regression (SVR), a novel neural network (NN) technique, has been successfully used for financial forecasting. This paper deals with the application of SVR in volatility forecasting. Based on a recurrent SVR, a GARCH method is proposed and is compared with a moving average (MA), a recurrent NN and a parametric GACH in terms of their ability to forecast financial markets volatility. The real data in this study uses British Pound-US Dollar (GBP) daily exchange rates from July 2, 2003 to June 30, 2005 and New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) daily composite index from July 3, 2003 to June 30, 2005. The experiment shows that, under both varying and fixed forecasting schemes, the SVR-based GARCH outperforms the MA, the recurrent NN and the parametric GARCH based on the criteria of mean absolute error (MAE) and directional accuracy (DA). No structured way being available to choose the free parameters of SVR, the sensitivity of performance is also examined to the free parameters.recurrent support vector regression, GARCH model, volatility forecasting

    A Pattern Recognition Approach to Spasmodic Dysphonia and Muscle Tension Dysphonia Automatic Classification

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    Spasmodic dysphonia (SD) and muscle tension dysphonia (MTD) are two voice disorders that present similar characteristics. Usually, they can be differentiated only by experienced voice clinicians. There are many reasons that support the idea that SD is a neurological disease, requiring surgical treatments or, more usually, laryngeal botulinum toxin A injections as a therapeutic option. On the other hand, MTD is a functional disorder correctable with voice therapy. The importance of a correct diagnosis of these two disorders is critical at the treatment-selection moment. In this article, we present and compare the results of neural network and support vector machine-based methods that can help the clinicians to confirm their diagnosis. As a preliminary approach to the problem, we used only a sustained vowel /a/ to extract eight acoustic parameters. Then, a pattern recognition algorithm classifies the voice as normal, SD, or MTD. For comparison with previous works, we also separated the voices into normal and pathological (SD and MTD) voices with the methods proposed here. The results overcome the best classification rates between normal and pathological voices that have been previously reported, and demonstrate that our methods are very effective in distinguishing between MTD and SD.Fil: Schlotthauer, Gaston. Universidad Nacional de Entre Ríos. Facultad de Ingeniería. Departamento de Matemática e Informática. Laboratorio de Señales y Dinámicas no Lineales; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaFil: Torres, Maria Eugenia. Universidad Nacional de Entre Ríos. Facultad de Ingeniería. Departamento de Matemática e Informática. Laboratorio de Señales y Dinámicas no Lineales; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaFil: Jackson Menaldi, María Cristina. Wayne State University (wayne State University); Estados Unido

    High-Quality Wavelets Features Extraction for Handwritten Arabic Numerals Recognition

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    Arabic handwritten digit recognition is the science of recognition and classification of handwritten Arabic digits. It has been a subject of research for many years with rich literature available on the subject.  Handwritten digits written by different people are not of the same size, thickness, style, position or orientation. Hence, many different challenges have to overcome for resolving the problem of handwritten digit recognition.  The variation in the digits is due to the writing styles of different people which can differ significantly.  Automatic handwritten digit recognition has wide application such as automatic processing of bank cheques, postal addresses, and tax forms. A typical handwritten digit recognition application consists of three main stages namely features extraction, features selection, and classification. One of the most important problems is feature extraction. In this paper, a novel feature extraction approach for off-line handwritten digit recognition is presented. Wavelets-based analysis of image data is carried out for feature extraction, and then classification is performed using various classifiers. To further reduce the size of training data-set, high entropy subbands are selected. To increase the recognition rate, individual subbands providing high classification accuracies are selected from the over-complete tree. The features extracted are also normalized to standardize the range of independent variables before providing them to the classifier. Classification is carried out using k-NN and SVMs. The results show that the quality of extracted features is high as almost equivalently high classification accuracies are acquired for both classifiers, i.e. k-NNs and SVMs

    Automatic Environmental Sound Recognition: Performance versus Computational Cost

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    In the context of the Internet of Things (IoT), sound sensing applications are required to run on embedded platforms where notions of product pricing and form factor impose hard constraints on the available computing power. Whereas Automatic Environmental Sound Recognition (AESR) algorithms are most often developed with limited consideration for computational cost, this article seeks which AESR algorithm can make the most of a limited amount of computing power by comparing the sound classification performance em as a function of its computational cost. Results suggest that Deep Neural Networks yield the best ratio of sound classification accuracy across a range of computational costs, while Gaussian Mixture Models offer a reasonable accuracy at a consistently small cost, and Support Vector Machines stand between both in terms of compromise between accuracy and computational cost
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