High-dimensional Linear Regression for Dependent Data with Applications to Nowcasting

Recent research has focused on $\ell_1$ penalized least squares (Lasso) estimators for high-dimensional linear regressions in which the number of covariates $p$ is considerably larger than the sample size $n$. However, few studies have examined the properties of the estimators when the errors and/or the covariates are serially dependent. In this study, we investigate the theoretical properties of the Lasso estimator for a linear regression with a random design and weak sparsity under serially dependent and/or nonsubGaussian errors and covariates. In contrast to the traditional case, in which the errors are independent and identically distributed and have finite exponential moments, we show that $p$ can be at most a power of $n$ if the errors have only finite polynomial moments. In addition, the rate of convergence becomes slower owing to the serial dependence in the errors and the covariates. We also consider the sign consistency of the model selection using the Lasso estimator when there are serial correlations in the errors or the covariates, or both. Adopting the framework of a functional dependence measure, we describe how the rates of convergence and the selection consistency of the estimators depend on the dependence measures and moment conditions of the errors and the covariates. Simulation results show that a Lasso regression can be significantly more powerful than a mixed-frequency data sampling regression (MIDAS) and a Dantzig selector in the presence of irrelevant variables. We apply the results obtained for the Lasso method to nowcasting with mixed-frequency data, in which serially correlated errors and a large number of covariates are common. The empirical results show that the Lasso procedure outperforms the MIDAS regression and the autoregressive model with exogenous variables in terms of both forecasting and nowcasting

Nonparametric estimation for Levy processes with a view towards mathematical finance

Nonparametric methods for the estimation of the Levy density of a Levy process are developed. Estimators that can be written in terms of the ``jumps'' of the process are introduced, and so are discrete-data based approximations. A model selection approach made up of two steps is investigated. The first step consists in the selection of a good estimator from a linear model of proposed Levy densities, while the second is a data-driven selection of a linear model among a given collection of linear models. By providing lower bounds for the minimax risk of estimation over Besov Levy densities, our estimators are shown to achieve the ``best'' rate of convergence. A numerical study for the case of histogram estimators and for variance Gamma processes, models of key importance in risky asset price modeling driven by Levy processes, is presented.Comment: 68 pages, 19 figures, submitted to Annals of Statistic

COUNTS WITH AN ENDOGENOUS BINARY REGRESSOR: A SERIES EXPANSION APPROACH

We propose an estimator for count data regression models where a binary regressor is endogenously determined. This estimator departs from previous approaches by using a flexible form for the conditional probability function of the counts. Using a Monte Carlo experiment we show that our estimator improves the fit and provides a more reliable estimate of the impact of regressors on the count when compared to alternatives which do restrict the mean to be linear-exponential. In an application to the number of trips by households in the US, we find that the estimate of the treatment effect obtained is considerably different from the one obtained under a linear-exponential mean specification.Count data, Polynominal Poisson Expansions, Flexible Functional Form.

Intermittent process analysis with scattering moments

Scattering moments provide nonparametric models of random processes with stationary increments. They are expected values of random variables computed with a nonexpansive operator, obtained by iteratively applying wavelet transforms and modulus nonlinearities, which preserves the variance. First- and second-order scattering moments are shown to characterize intermittency and self-similarity properties of multiscale processes. Scattering moments of Poisson processes, fractional Brownian motions, L\'{e}vy processes and multifractal random walks are shown to have characteristic decay. The Generalized Method of Simulated Moments is applied to scattering moments to estimate data generating models. Numerical applications are shown on financial time-series and on energy dissipation of turbulent flows.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/14-AOS1276 the Annals of Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aos/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Moments of spectral functions: Monte Carlo evaluation and verification

The subject of the present study is the Monte Carlo path-integral evaluation of the moments of spectral functions. Such moments can be computed by formal differentiation of certain estimating functionals that are infinitely-differentiable against time whenever the potential function is arbitrarily smooth. Here, I demonstrate that the numerical differentiation of the estimating functionals can be more successfully implemented by means of pseudospectral methods (e.g., exact differentiation of a Chebyshev polynomial interpolant), which utilize information from the entire interval $(-\beta \hbar / 2, \beta \hbar/2)$. The algorithmic detail that leads to robust numerical approximations is the fact that the path integral action and not the actual estimating functional are interpolated. Although the resulting approximation to the estimating functional is non-linear, the derivatives can be computed from it in a fast and stable way by contour integration in the complex plane, with the help of the Cauchy integral formula (e.g., by Lyness' method). An interesting aspect of the present development is that Hamburger's conditions for a finite sequence of numbers to be a moment sequence provide the necessary and sufficient criteria for the computed data to be compatible with the existence of an inversion algorithm. Finally, the issue of appearance of the sign problem in the computation of moments, albeit in a milder form than for other quantities, is addressed.Comment: 13 pages, 2 figure