China’s foreign oil policy: genesis, deployment and selected effects

China is a rising global power with a growing role and impact on the world’s energy markets as well as on the Earth’s climate system. China pursues its development in an essentially non-confrontational manner, a vision encapsulated by the notion of peaceful rise which is viewed positively in the world’s major capitals. Nevertheless, China’s rapid growth represents a genuine global challenge and raises many questions. How is China dealing with its growing need for imported crude oil? What is the impact of China’s rise on the global oil market, notably in terms of oil price developments? Are Chinese actions on oil markets different from those of other major importers? What opportunities and risks arise as a result of china’s growing role on the global oil market from the viewpoint of other global players? In this report we seek to offer some answers to those questions with a review of China’s developing energy policy, of the actions and revealed preferences of its national oil companies, and of broader economic and geopolitical analyses of the impact of China’s growing oil consumption on other global players.Crude oil, energy security, oil security, China, foreign oil policy

The Oil Supply and Demand Context for Security of Oil Supply to the EU from the GCC Countries

In examining the prospects for oil and gas supply from the GCC countries, we draw on the evidence that the supply of oil and gas from the region has been relatively reliable, notwithstanding the region’s perceived political instability. The approach taken here starts from this empirical observation; namely, that supply from the region will be available when called upon, as it has in the past. Oil and gas are of central importance to the economies of most GCC countries. Hydrocarbons provide the basis on which to gradually diversify GCC economies. Continued hydrocarbon-based economic growth provides the platform for economic diversification which can in turn underpin internal social and political cohesion and stability of these countries. Broadly speaking, Russia and the rest of the FSU will increasingly dominate the world’s oil supply outside OPEC and the Middle East, while China, India and North America will continue to determine oil demand. The political evolution of the FSU and the economic evolution, and macroeconomic policy making in particular, of the big Asian countries and the United States will be the determinants of the prospects for the call of GCC oil. Two scenarios of oil supply and demand; namely, Russia’s oil supply falters while China’s demand soars, versus Russia’s oil supply soars while China’s demand collapses, present two totally different outcomes for the economies of the GCC, and specifically affecting their ability to invest in their comparative advantages and diversify their economies. Paradoxically then, the internal prospects of the Middle East depend on external developments. Thus, this analysis looks outside for a basis to develop propositions for the inside with respect to, for example, ‘How much of the global oil and gas markets can GCC countries count on supplying?’Oil, Demand, Supply, Security, GCC

Connection men, pushers and migrant trajectories: examining the dynamics of the migration industry in Ghana and along routes into Europe and the Gulf States

This paper examines the inner workings and operational logic of the array of individuals, agencies, state and non-state actors, institutions and social networks that collectively make up the migration industry in Ghana. It sheds light on how actors in the migration industry facilitate and condition migrant mobility, focusing on workers moving from Ghana along two migration corridors towards Europe and the Gulf States for work in the domestic and construction sectors. The study draws on a broad and nuanced conceptualisation of the “migration industry” which goes beyond a narrow focus on actors operating mainly for financial gain. Instead, it focuses on migration not just as a movement from point of departure to arrival, but as a changing journey over both space and time. This allows not only empirical insights into the processes through which people move, but it also provides an analytical lens to better unpack the complexities of migration processes. We extend the analysis of migration industries by incorporating risk theory into the analysis of the migration decision. The decision takes place in a context where migrants’ high level of knowledge about the dangers of migration has not translated into a reduction in migration flows on these two corridors. We analyse migrants’ rationale for choosing to embark on highly risky journeys, even in the face of increasing knowledge about these risks, and to develop appropriate policy responses

Strategic Options for Iran: Balancing Pressure with Diplomacy

This third report from The Iran Project, considers the successes, shortfalls, and risks of strategies designed to pressure the Iranian government into changing its policies. It explores some of the advantages and disadvantages for U.S. interests in the Middle East that might flow from bilateral negotiations with Iran to achieve a nuclear deal, and propose steps that the President might take to establish a framework for direct talks with Iran's leadership that would build on the latest round of multilateral negotiations and proposals. Iran's actions -- particularly with regard to its nuclear program -- pose complex and dangerous challenges to U.S. interests and security, as well as to the security of Israel and possibly to stability in the Middle East. This paper sets out a response to these serious challenges. A strengthened U.S. diplomatic initiative would not replace the pressure track; rather, it would build on pressure already applied. Some measure of sanctions relief will have to be offered as part of a negotiated settlement; but pressure should not be eased without firm and verifiable Iranian commitments to greater transparency and agreed limits on Iran's nuclear program. The proposed bilateral discussions between the U.S. and Iran would not replace the multilateral negotiations that are now underway. Bilateral talks would have to proceed on a basis understood and ideally supported by the P5+1 (the five permanent members of the UN Security Council, plus Germany) and U.S. allies. This paper differs from earlier Iran Project publications in that it takes policy positions and makes recommendations for government action. The authors have sought to base these suggestions on factual, objective, nonpartisan analyses, consulting with nearly 20 former government officials and experts and seeking advice from a larger group of signatories

The communicative needs of Bangladeshi economic migrants: The functional values of host country languages versus English as a lingua franca

This article investigates the language skills and the nature of language provision required by economic migrants from Bangladesh working in the Middle East. It focuses in particular on the perceived values of the host country language (Arabic) versus English as a language franca (ELF). While there have been a number of explorations of the value of learning the host country language for migrants in terms of both labour market outcomes and wellbeing, there is a paucity of, and pressing need for, studies investigating the value of ELF for economic migrants, particularly those from developing country contexts. This article presents the findings from an ethnographic study which explores the experiences, perceptions and specific language-related issues of a diverse cohort of returnee migrants from rural Bangladesh where, despite significant migration from the area, little is known about this population’s language use and communicative needs. Our findings suggest that both the host country language (Arabic) and ELF have important functional values, but that these vary depending on interlocutors, domains of work and contexts of situation, as well as on the relative statuses (within an ecology of global linguistic value) of the two languages in different contexts. The analysis thus provides fresh and significant evidence regarding the role of language in economic migration and development for low-skilled migrants, both to and from contexts in which English has no official status. The article concludes by considering the implications for the types of language education which might be most suitable for these and other economic migrants in comparable contexts

International business and the political environment: an exploratory study: "comparative study of Iraqi, Saudi oil trade"

This paper is a Master thesis for the master’s program in International studies in the Department of Sociology and Public Policies at ISCTE University. As the title indicates, the aim of this thesis is to explore what is the political environment and present the concept of international business, and the impact of those works on the political environment by setting the theoretical context and draw that context from a comparative analysis of the historical context of the Iraqi and Saudi oil trade and their impact on the political environment of the stakeholders. The research questions are: What is the concept of the political environment and its components?; Does international business have an impact on the political environment?; How has the Iraqi and Saudi oil trade affected the political environment of these countries?; In order to answer the questions and fulfill the aim of this paper, a qualitative research method has been chosen. The study is mainly based on secondary sources such as textbooks, articles, magazines, and newspapers as well as internet resources. In making the comparative analysis Examination of different historical stages of oil trade and for two different regions and the extent of theoretical convergence of theoretical concepts with the practical realism derived from the events of those stages. This proves the argument of this theory and completed it and how its practical impact on the political environment. The conclusion drawn from the study is that international business affects the political environment and its elements, and the theoretical results coincide with the results of the analysis of the practical experience derived from the historical context of a century, that the Iraqi and Saudi oil trade as one of the international business influenced the political environment of stakeholders, They drew their political behavior, which was reflected in the internal political situation and international relations, which in turn reflected on the security of stakeholders, whether in the form of political risks or development processes for those countries.Este artigo é uma dissertação de mestrado para o programa de mestrado em Estudos Internacionais no Departamento de Sociologia e Políticas Públicas da Universidade Iscte. Como o título indica, o objetivo desta tese é explorar o que é o ambiente político e apresentar o conceito de negócios internacionais e o impacto desses trabalhos no ambiente político, definindo o contexto teórico e extrair esse contexto de uma análise comparativa. do contexto histórico do comércio de petróleo iraquiano e saudita e seu impacto no ambiente político das partes interessadas. As questões de pesquisa são: Qual é o conceito do ambiente político e seus componentes?; Os negócios internacionais têm impacto no ambiente político?; Como o comércio de petróleo do Iraque e da Arábia Saudita afetou o ambiente político desses países?; A fim de responder às questões supracitadas e cumprir o objetivo deste trabalho, optou-se por um método de pesquisa qualitativa. O estudo baseia-se principalmente em fontes secundárias, como livros didáticos, artigos, revistas e jornais, bem como recursos da Internet. Ao fazer a análise comparativa Análise de diferentes estágios históricos do comércio de petróleo e para duas regiões diferentes e a extensão da convergência teórica de conceitos teóricos com o realismo prático derivado dos eventos dessas etapas. Isso prova o argumento dessa teoria e a completou e como seu impacto prático no ambiente político A conclusão tirada do estudo é que os negócios internacionais afetam o ambiente político e seus elementos, e os resultados teóricos coincidem com os resultados da análise da experiência prática derivada do contexto histórico de um século, que o comércio de petróleo iraquiano e saudita como um dos negócios internacionais influenciou o ambiente político das partes interessadas, Eles desenhou seu comportamento político, o que se refletiu na situação política interna e relações internacionais, que por sua vez refletiu sobre a segurança das partes interessadas, seja na forma de riscos políticos ou processos de desenvolvimento para esses países

The Oil Weapon: Myth of China's Vulnerability

The geopolitical canvass on which China plots its strategy for energy security displays a ubiquitous presence of one country: the United States. Chinese energy security planners must reckon with America's ravenous consumption of imported oil, its strategic alliances with other heavy importers of oil in Asia, its overseas military operations in the heart of the world's leading oil producing region, its naval dominion over the world's oil transportation routes, and the global domination of U.S. oil companies or multinational oil companies heavily capitalized by American investment. This is the context in which China pursues its energy security, sometimes blandly described as 'conservation and diversification of supply', which masks the nation's real struggle to satisfy its rapidly growing energy needs without exposing its energy lifelines to external forces that may, intentionally or not, betray China's interests

The international contractor's decision to invest : a strategic risk management decision model for public private partnership projects in Saudi Arabia

One of the main sources of risks that influence potential project success is the project selection decision, especially for international contractor organisations looking for an opportunity to invest in public private partnership projects in foreign countries. Project selection decision, which involves the bid/no bid decision, is a critical investment decision needs to be made based on concrete project evaluation and risks identifications; where negative-risk is in place if there is an absence of a rational basis at the time of making such a decision. Thus, negative consequences of such a decision might occur. The bid/no bid decision necessitates an effective project evaluation and risk identification from various aspects with consideration of several internal and external factors in order to achieve project success. Bidding for PPP projects overseas without efficiently applying risk management tools and techniques to evaluate both the project and the organisation’s current situation and capability might result either in large losses or consumption of time and resources that could have been avoided. The prime aim of this research is to develop a strategic investment decision model from the perspective of risk management, in order to facilitate the decisions of international contractors who intend to invest in public private partnership projects in the Saudi Arabian construction industry. This aim requires establishing a link between the risk management process and the organisation's strategy and its current situation, and identifying risks involved in the bid/no bid decision, PPP projects, and international investment in order to provide an effective computer-based model that is capable of organising the bid/no bid decision in a rational, logical, flexible, and user-friendly manner. The pragmatic triangulation philosophy approach is adopted as the best research methodology that allows two types of research strategy to be combined in order to accomplish the research aim and objectives. Thus, the methods used are qualitative interviews and a quantitative questionnaire-based survey. The findings of this research identified critical success factors of international contractors’ bidding decisions for PPP projects in the Saudi Arabian construction industry. In particular, seventy-seven factors affecting the bid/no bid decision were used as a foundation for development of a Strategic Risk Management Decision Model (SRMDM), available at www.srmdm.com