Natural Variability in Projections of Climate Change Impacts on Fine Particulate Matter Pollution

Variations in meteorology associated with climate change can impact fine particulate matter (PM2.5) pollution by affecting natural emissions, atmospheric chemistry, and pollutant transport. However, substantial discrepancies exist among model-based projections of PM2.5 impacts driven by anthropogenic climate change. Natural variability can significantly contribute to the uncertainty in these estimates. Using a large ensemble of climate and atmospheric chemistry simulations, we evaluate the influence of natural variability on projections of climate change impacts on PM2.5 pollution in the United States. We find that natural variability in simulated PM2.5 can be comparable or larger than reported estimates of anthropogenic-induced climate impacts. Relative to mean concentrations, the variability in projected PM2.5 climate impacts can also exceed that of ozone impacts. Based on our projections, we recommend that analyses aiming to isolate the effect climate change on PM2.5 use 10 years or more of modeling to capture the internal variability in air quality and increase confidence that the anthropogenic-forced effect is differentiated from the noise introduced by natural variability. Projections at a regional scale or under greenhouse gas mitigation scenarios can require additional modeling to attribute impacts to climate change. Adequately considering natural variability can be an important step toward explaining the inconsistencies in estimates of climate-induced impacts on PM2.5. Improved treatment of natural variability through extended modeling lengths or initial condition ensembles can reduce uncertainty in air quality projections and improve assessments of climate policy risks and benefits

Application of Big Data to Support Evidence-Based Public Health Policy Decision-Making for Hearing

Ideally, public health policies are formulated from scientific data; however, policy-specific data are often unavailable. Big data can generate ecologically-valid, high-quality scientific evidence, and therefore has the potential to change how public health policies are formulated. Here, we discuss the use of big data for developing evidence-based hearing health policies, using data collected and analyzed with a research prototype of a data repository known as EVOTION (EVidence-based management of hearing impairments: public health pOlicy-making based on fusing big data analytics and simulaTION), to illustrate our points. Data in the repository consist of audiometric clinical data, prospective real-world data collected from hearing aids and an app, and responses to questionnaires collected for research purposes. To date, we have used the platform and a synthetic dataset to model the estimated risk of noise-induced hearing loss and have shown novel evidence of ways in which external factors influence hearing aid usage patterns. We contend that this research prototype data repository illustrates the value of using big data for policy-making by providing high-quality evidence that could be used to formulate and evaluate the impact of hearing health care policies

Preparing for a Northwest Passage: A Workshop on the Role of New England in Navigating the New Arctic

Preparing for a Northwest Passage: A Workshop on the Role of New England in Navigating the New Arctic (March 25 - 27, 2018 -- The University of New Hampshire) paired two of NSF\u27s 10 Big Ideas: Navigating the New Arctic and Growing Convergence Research at NSF. During this event, participants assessed economic, environmental, and social impacts of Arctic change on New England and established convergence research initiatives to prepare for, adapt to, and respond to these effects. Shipping routes through an ice-free Northwest Passage in combination with modifications to ocean circulation and regional climate patterns linked to Arctic ice melt will affect trade, fisheries, tourism, coastal ecology, air and water quality, animal migration, and demographics not only in the Arctic but also in lower latitude coastal regions such as New England. With profound changes on the horizon, this is a critical opportunity for New England to prepare for uncertain yet inevitable economic and environmental impacts of Arctic change

The CORDEX.be initiative as a foundation for climate services in Belgium

The CORDEX.be project created the foundations for Belgian climate services by producing high-resolution Belgian climate information that (a) incorporates the expertise of the different Belgian climate modeling groups and that (b) is consistent with the outcomes of the international CORDEX ("COordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment") project. The key practical tasks for the project were the coordination of activities among different Belgian climate groups, fostering the links to specific international initiatives and the creation of a stakeholder dialogue. Scientifically, the CORDEX.be project contributed to the EURO-CORDEX project, created a small ensemble of High-Resolution (H-Res) future projections over Belgium at convection-permitting resolutions and coupled these to seven Local Impact Models. Several impact studies have been carried out. The project also addressed some aspects of climate change uncertainties. The interactions and feedback from the stakeholder dialogue led to different practical applications at the Belgian national level

Benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation on the supply, management, and use of water resources in the United States

Climate change impacts on water resources in the United States are likely to be far-reaching and substantial because the water is integral to climate, and the water sector spans many parts of the economy. This paper estimates impacts and damages from five water resource-related models addressing runoff, drought risk, economics of water supply/demand, water stress, and flooding damages. The models differ in the water system assessed, spatial scale, and unit of assessment, but together provide a quantitative and descriptive richness in characterizing water sector effects that no single model can capture. The results, driven by a consistent set of greenhouse gas (GHG) emission and climate scenarios, examine uncertainty from emissions, climate sensitivity, and climate model selection. While calculating the net impact of climate change on the water sector as a whole may be impractical, broad conclusions can be drawn regarding patterns of change and benefits of GHG mitigation. Four key findings emerge: 1) GHG mitigation substantially reduces hydro-climatic impacts on the water sector; 2) GHG mitigation provides substantial national economic benefits in water resources related sectors; 3) the models show a strong signal of wetting for the Eastern US and a strong signal of drying in the Southwest; and 4) unmanaged hydrologic systems impacts show strong correlation with the change in magnitude and direction of precipitation and temperature from climate models, but managed water resource systems and regional economic systems show lower correlation with changes in climate variables due to non-linearities created by water infrastructure and the socio-economic changes in non-climate driven water demand