Dueling Biological and Social Contagions

Numerous models explore how a wide variety of biological and social phenomena spread in social networks. However, these models implicitly assume that the spread of one phenomenon is not affected by the spread of another. Here, we develop a model of “dueling contagions”, with a particular illustration of a situation where one is biological (influenza) and the other is social (flu vaccination). We apply the model to unique time series data collected during the 2009 H1N1 epidemic that includes information about vaccination, flu, and face-to-face social networks. The results show that well- connected individuals are more likely to get vaccinated, as are people who are exposed to friends who get vaccinated or are exposed to friends who get the flu. Our dueling contagion model suggests that other epidemiological models may be dramatically underestimating the R 0 of contagions. It also suggests that the rate of vaccination contagion may be even more important than the biological contagion in determining the course of the disease. These results suggest that real world and online platforms that make it easier to see when friends have been vaccinated (personalized vaccination campaigns) and when they get the flu (personalized flu warnings) could have a large impact on reducing the severity of epidemics. They also suggest possible benefits from understanding the coevolution of many kinds of dueling contagions

Legal Education During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Put Health, Safety and Equity First

The COVID-19 viral pandemic exposed equity and safety culture gaps in American legal education. Legal education forms part of America’s Critical Infrastructure whose continuity is important to the economy, public safety, democracy, and the national security of the United States. To address the COVID-19 pandemic and prepare for future viral pandemics and safety risks, this article recommends law schools develop a safety culture to foster health, safety, robust educational dialogue, and equity. To guide safety-and-equity-centered decision-making and promote effective legal education during and following the COVID-19 pandemic, this article contends legal education must put health, safety, and equity first. It proposes an ethical framework for legal education that centers diversity and inclusion as the foundation of robust educational dialogue. This article’s interdisciplinary analysis of COVID-19 scientific studies recommends law schools follow the science and exercise extreme caution before convening classes in person or in a hybrid fashion. COVID-19 infection risks serious illness, long-lasting complications, and death. It has preyed on America’s inequities. African-Americans, Native Americans, Latinx Americans, older Americans, and those with certain underlying health conditions including pregnant women face higher levels of hospitalization and death from COVID-19 infection. COVID-19’s inequitable risks may separate those participating in class in person, or online, by race, ethnicity, tribe, age, and health. Law schools must ensure that during the COVID-19 health emergency, hybrid or in-person pedagogical models do not undermine diversity and inclusion that supports educational dialogue and First Amendment values. The COVID-19 pandemic underscores the imperative of putting health, safety, and equity first in legal education

You are only as safe as your riskiest contact: Effective Covid-19 vaccine distribution using local network information

When vaccines are limited, prior research has suggested it is most protective to distribute vaccines to the most central individuals – those who are most likely to spread the disease. But surveying the population’s social network is a costly and time-consuming endeavour, often not completed before vaccination must begin. This paper validates a local targeting method for distributing vaccines. That is, ask randomly chosen individuals to nominate for vaccination the person they are in contact with who has the most disease-spreading contacts. Even better, ask that person to nominate the next person for vaccination, and so on. To validate this approach, we simulate the spread of COVID-19 along empirical contact networks collected in two high schools, in the United States and France, pre-COVID. These weighted networks are built by recording whenever students are in close spatial proximity and facing one another. We show here that nomination of most popular contacts performs significantly better than random vaccination, and on par with strategies which assume a full survey of the population. These results are robust over a range of realistic disease-spread parameters, as well as a larger synthetic contact network of 3000 individuals

Emergence of protective behaviour under different risk perceptions to disease spreading

The behaviour of individuals is a main actor in the control of the spread of a communicable disease and, in turn, the spread of an infectious disease can trigger behavioural changes in a population. Here, we study the emergence of individuals protective behaviours in response to the spread of a disease by considering two different social attitudes within the same population: concerned and risky. Generally speaking, concerned individuals have a larger risk aversion than risky individuals. To study the emergence of protective behaviours, we couple, to the epidemic evolution of a susceptible-infectedsusceptible model, a decision game based on the perceived risk of infection. Using this framework, we find the effect of the protection strategy on the epidemic threshold for each of the two subpopulations (concerned and risky), and study under which conditions risky individuals are persuaded to protect themselves or, on the contrary, can take advantage2022 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved. © 2022 Royal Society Publishing. All rights reserved

Emergence and spread of drug resistant influenza: A two-population game theoretical model

Background The potential for emergence of antiviral drug resistance during influenza pandemics has raised great concern for public health. Widespread use of antiviral drugs is a significant factor in producing resistant strains. Recent studies show that some influenza viruses may gain antiviral drug resistance without a fitness penalty. This creates the possibility of strategic interaction between populations considering antiviral drug use strategies. Methods To explain why, we develop and analyze a classical 2-player game theoretical model where each player chooses from a range of possible rates of antiviral drug use, and payoffs are derived as a function of final size of epidemic with the regular and mutant strain. Final sizes are derived from a stochastic compartmental epidemic model that captures transmission within each population and between populations, and the stochastic emergence of antiviral drug resistance. High treatment levels not only increase the spread of the resistant strain in the subject population but also affect the other population by increasing the density of the resistant strain infectious individuals due to travel between populations. Results We found two Nash equilibria where both populations treat at a high rate, or both treat at a low rate. Hence the game theoretical analysis predicts that populations will not choose different treatment strategies than other populations, under these assumptions. The populations may choose to cooperate by maintaining a low treatment rate that does not increase the incidence of mutant strain infections or cause case importations to the other population. Alternatively, if one population is treating at a high rate, this will generate a large number of mutant infections that spread to the other population, in turn incentivizing that population to also treat at a high rate. The prediction of two separate Nash equilibria is robust to the mutation rate and the effectiveness of the drug in preventing transmission, but it is sensitive to the volume of travel between the two populations. Conclusions Model-based evaluations of antiviral influenza drug use during a pandemic usually consider populations in isolation from one another, but our results show that strategic interactions could strongly influence a population's choice of antiviral drug use policy. Furthermore, the high treatment rate Nash equilibrium has the potential to become socially suboptimal (i.e. non-Pareto optimal) under model assumptions that might apply under other conditions. Because of the need for players to coordinate their actions, we conclude that communication and coordination between jurisdictions during influenza pandemics is a priority, especially for influenza strains that do not evolve a fitness penalty under antiviral drug resistance.Game theoryStochastic compartmental modelAntiviral drugsDrug resistanceH1N1Fitness penalt

Statistical physics of vaccination

Historically, infectious diseases caused considerable damage to human societies, and they continue to do so today. To help reduce their impact, mathematical models of disease transmission have been studied to help understand disease dynamics and inform prevention strategies. Vaccination–one of the most important preventive measures of modern times–is of great interest both theoretically and empirically. And in contrast to traditional approaches, recent research increasingly explores the pivotal implications of individual behavior and heterogeneous contact patterns in populations. Our report reviews the developmental arc of theoretical epidemiology with emphasis on vaccination, as it led from classical models assuming homogeneously mixing (mean-field) populations and ignoring human behavior, to recent models that account for behavioral feedback and/or population spatial/social structure. Many of the methods used originated in statistical physics, such as lattice and network models, and their associated analytical frameworks. Similarly, the feedback loop between vaccinating behavior and disease propagation forms a coupled nonlinear system with analogs in physics. We also review the new paradigm of digital epidemiology, wherein sources of digital data such as online social media are mined for high-resolution information on epidemiologically relevant individual behavior. Armed with the tools and concepts of statistical physics, and further assisted by new sources of digital data, models that capture nonlinear interactions between behavior and disease dynamics offer a novel way of modeling real-world phenomena, and can help improve health outcomes. We conclude the review by discussing open problems in the field and promising directions for future research

Zoonoses

Animals are all around us. We overlap with them in environments across the globe, which leads to myriad interactions, including shared infectious and parasitic diseases. Such diseases, known as zoonoses, are the focus of this book. Within its pages, the authors describe the nature and transmission of zoonoses, discuss the diseases of greatest concern, detail different protective measures, and examine the factors responsible for zoonosis emergence and evolution. This work encourages readers to delve deeper into the world of animals and microbes that surrounds us. It presents knowledge we must possess to better protect ourselves and, more importantly, to adopt a more holistic approach to our relationships with animals and the living world