Modeling Bioenergy Supply Chains: Feedstocks Pretreatment, Integrated System Design Under Uncertainty

Biofuels have been promoted by governmental policies for reducing fossil fuel dependency and greenhouse gas emissions, as well as facilitating regional economic growth. Comprehensive model analysis is needed to assess the economic and environmental impacts of developing bioenergy production systems. For cellulosic biofuel production and supply in particular, existing studies have not accounted for the inter-dependencies between multiple participating decision makers and simultaneously incorporated uncertainties and risks associated with the linked production systems.This dissertation presents a methodology that incorporates uncertainty element to the existing integrated modeling framework specifically designed for advanced biofuel production systems using dedicated energy crops as feedstock resources. The goal of the framework is to support the bioenergy industry for infrastructure and supply chain development. The framework is flexible to adapt to different topological network structures and decision scopes based on the modeling requirements, such as on capturing the interactions between the agricultural production system and the multi-refinery bioenergy supply chain system with regards to land allocation and crop adoption patterns, which is critical for estimating feedstock supply potentials for the bioenergy industry. The methodology is also particularly designed to incorporate system uncertainties by using stochastic programming models to improve the resilience of the optimized system design.The framework is used to construct model analyses in two case studies. The results of the California biomass supply model estimate that feedstock pretreatment via combined torrefaction and pelletization reduces delivered and transportation cost for long-distance biomass shipment by 5% and 15% respectively. The Pacific Northwest hardwood biofuels application integrates full-scaled supply chain infrastructure optimization with agricultural economic modeling and estimates that bio-jet fuels can be produced at costs between 4 to 5 dollars per gallon, and identifies areas suitable for simultaneously deploying a set of biorefineries using adopted poplar as the dedicated energy crop to produce biomass feedstocks. This application specifically incorporates system uncertainties in the crop market and provides an optimal system design solution with over 17% improvement in expected total profit compared to its corresponding deterministic model

Depressive Symptoms and Resilience among Pregnant Adolescents: A Case-Control Study

Background. Data regarding depression and resilience among adolescents is still lacking. Objective. To assess depressive symptoms and resilience among pregnant adolescents. Method. Depressive symptoms and resilience were assessed using two validated inventories, the 10-item Center for Epidemiologic Studies Short Depression Scale (CESD-10) and the 14-item Wagnild and Young Resilience Scale (RS), respectively. A case-control approach was used to compare differences between adolescents and adults. Results. A total of 302 pregnant women were enrolled in the study, 151 assigned to each group. Overall, 56.6% of gravids presented total CESD-10 scores 10 or more indicating depressed mood. Despite this, total CESD-10 scores and depressed mood rate did not differ among studied groups. Adolescents did however display lower resilience reflected by lower total RS scores and a higher rate of scores below the calculated median (P < .05). Logistic regression analysis could not establish any risk factor for depressed mood among studied subjects; however, having an adolescent partner (OR, 2.0 CI 95% 1.06–4.0, P = .03) and a preterm delivery (OR, 3.0 CI 95% 1.43–6.55, P = .004) related to a higher risk for lower resilience. Conclusion. In light of the findings of the present study, programs oriented at giving adolescents support before, during, and after pregnancy should be encouraged

Sharing the cost of river basin adaptation portfolios to climate change: Insights from social justice and cooperative game theory

[EN] The adaptation of water resource systems to the potential impacts of climate change requires mixed portfolios of supply and demand adaptation measures. The issue is not only to select efficient, robust, and flexible adaptation portfolios but also to find equitable strategies of cost allocation among the stakeholders. Our work addresses such cost allocation problems by applying two different theoretical approaches: social justice and cooperative game theory in a real case study. First of all, a cost-effective portfolio of adaptation measures at the basin scale is selected using a least-cost optimization model. Cost allocation solutions are then defined based on economic rationality concepts from cooperative game theory (the Core). Second, interviews are conducted to characterize stakeholders perceptions of social justice principles associated with the definition of alternatives cost allocation rules. The comparison of the cost allocation scenarios leads to contrasted insights in order to inform the decision-making process at the river basin scale and potentially reap the efficiency gains from cooperation in the design of river basin adaptation portfolios.The study has been partially supported by the IMPADAPT project (CGL2013-48424-C2-1-R) from the Spanish ministry MINECO (Ministerio de Economia y Competitividad) with European FEDER funds. The first author is supported by a grant from the University Lecturer Training Program (FPU12/03803) of the Ministry of Education, Culture and Sports of Spain. The second author is financially supported by BRGM's research program 30 (environmental and risk economics). Readers interested in the data can request those by e-mail to Corentin Girard, [email protected], CDP.; Rinaudo, J.; Pulido-Velazquez, M. (2016). Sharing the cost of river basin adaptation portfolios to climate change: Insights from social justice and cooperative game theory. Water Resources Research. 52(10):7945-7962. https://doi.org/10.1002/2016WR018757794579625210Benzie, M. (2014). Social Justice and Adaptation in the UK. Ecology and Society, 19(1). doi:10.5751/es-06252-190139Bruce, C., & Madani, K. (2015). Successful Collaborative Negotiation over Water Policy: Substance versus Process. Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, 141(9), 04015009. doi:10.1061/(asce)wr.1943-5452.0000517Chazot , S. 2011 http://www.vallees-orb-libron.fr/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/etude-gestion-Monts-Orb-Rapport-V16.pdfChazot , S. T. Norotte J. David 2012 Rapport Final du Projet Explore 2070, BRLi-Irstea-Météo France [in French]Direction Générale des Collectivités Locales (DGCL) 2013 http://www.observatoire-des-territoires.gouv.fr/observatoire-des-territoires/es/potentiel-financier-par-habitantDinar, A., & Howitt, R. E. (1997). Mechanisms for Allocation of Environmental Control Cost: Empirical Tests of Acceptability and Stability. Journal of Environmental Management, 49(2), 183-203. doi:10.1006/jema.1995.0088Driessen, T. S. H., & Tijs, S. H. (1985). The Cost Gap Method and Other Cost Allocation Methods For Multipurpose Water Projects. Water Resources Research, 21(10), 1469-1475. doi:10.1029/wr021i010p01469European Commission (EC) 2009 Guidance Doc. 24Eek, D., & Biel, A. (2003). Social Justice Research, 16(3), 195-215. doi:10.1023/a:1025984611796Girard , C. 2015 10.4995/Thesis/10251/59461Girard, C., Rinaudo, J.-D., Pulido-Velazquez, M., & Caballero, Y. (2015). An interdisciplinary modelling framework for selecting adaptation measures at the river basin scale in a global change scenario. Environmental Modelling & Software, 69, 42-54. doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2015.02.023Girard, C., Pulido-Velazquez, M., Rinaudo, J.-D., Pagé, C., & Caballero, Y. (2015). Integrating top–down and bottom–up approaches to design global change adaptation at the river basin scale. Global Environmental Change, 34, 132-146. doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.07.002Girard, C., Rinaudo, J.-D., & Pulido-Velazquez, M. (2015). Index-Based Cost-Effectiveness Analysis vs. Least-Cost River Basin Optimization Model: Comparison in the Selection of a Programme of Measures at the River Basin Scale. Water Resources Management, 29(11), 4129-4155. doi:10.1007/s11269-015-1049-0Graham, S., Barnett, J., Fincher, R., Mortreux, C., & Hurlimann, A. (2014). Towards fair local outcomes in adaptation to sea-level rise. Climatic Change, 130(3), 411-424. doi:10.1007/s10584-014-1171-7Hallegatte, S. (2009). Strategies to adapt to an uncertain climate change. Global Environmental Change, 19(2), 240-247. doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2008.12.003Harou, J. J., Pulido-Velazquez, M., Rosenberg, D. E., Medellín-Azuara, J., Lund, J. R., & Howitt, R. E. (2009). Hydro-economic models: Concepts, design, applications, and future prospects. Journal of Hydrology, 375(3-4), 627-643. doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.06.037Heaney, J. P., & Dickinson, R. E. (1982). Methods for apportioning the cost of a water resource project. Water Resources Research, 18(3), 476-482. doi:10.1029/wr018i003p00476Hughes, S. (2013). Justice in Urban Climate Change Adaptation: Criteria and Application to Delhi. Ecology and Society, 18(4). doi:10.5751/es-05929-180448Kwakkel, J. H., Haasnoot, M., & Walker, W. E. (2014). Developing dynamic adaptive policy pathways: a computer-assisted approach for developing adaptive strategies for a deeply uncertain world. Climatic Change, 132(3), 373-386. doi:10.1007/s10584-014-1210-4Lamont , J. C. Favor 2013 Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy E. N. Zalta 1 46,Lawrence, R. L., Daniels, S. E., & Stankey, G. H. (1997). Procedural justice and public involvement in natural resource decision making. Society & Natural Resources, 10(6), 577-589. doi:10.1080/08941929709381054Lejano, R. P., & Davos, C. A. (1995). Cost Allocation of Multiagency Water Resource Projects: Game Theoretic Approaches and Case Study. Water Resources Research, 31(5), 1387-1393. doi:10.1029/95wr00322Lempert, R. J., & Groves, D. G. (2010). Identifying and evaluating robust adaptive policy responses to climate change for water management agencies in the American west. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 77(6), 960-974. doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2010.04.007Loehman, E., Orlando, J., Tschirhart, J., & Whinston, A. (1979). Cost allocation for a regional wastewater treatment system. Water Resources Research, 15(2), 193-202. doi:10.1029/wr015i002p00193Madani, K. (2010). Game theory and water resources. Journal of Hydrology, 381(3-4), 225-238. doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.11.045Madani, K., & Hooshyar, M. (2014). A game theory–reinforcement learning (GT–RL) method to develop optimal operation policies for multi-operator reservoir systems. Journal of Hydrology, 519, 732-742. doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.07.061Ministère de l'Energie et du Développement Durable (MEDDE) 2012Mill , J. 1861 Utilitarianism, Liberty, and Responsive Government, Equity and Justice in Social BehaviourMontet, C., & Serra, D. (2003). Game Theory and Economics. doi:10.1007/978-1-137-08289-3Moreau, C., Rinaudo, J.-D., & Garin, P. (2015). La justice sociale dans la construction du jugement d’acceptabilité. Analyse des réactions d’agriculteurs face à différentes règles de partage de l’eau souterraine. Économie rurale, (346), 31-48. doi:10.4000/economierurale.4612Neal, M. J., Lukasiewicz, A., & Syme, G. J. (2014). Why justice matters in water governance: some ideas for a ‘water justice framework’. Water Policy, 16(S2), 1-18. doi:10.2166/wp.2014.109Nielsen, K. (1979). Radical Egalitarian Justice. Social Theory and Practice, 5(2), 209-226. doi:10.5840/soctheorpract1979523Olmstead, S. M. (2014). 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Global Environmental Change, 15(2), 115-124. doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2004.10.001Vernier , M. J. D. Rinaudo 2012 Rap. BRGM/RP-61317-FR http://infoterre.brgm.fr/rapports/RP-61317-FR.pdfWalker, W., Haasnoot, M., & Kwakkel, J. (2013). Adapt or Perish: A Review of Planning Approaches for Adaptation under Deep Uncertainty. Sustainability, 5(3), 955-979. doi:10.3390/su5030955Ward, F. A., & Pulido-Velázquez, M. (2008). Efficiency, equity, and sustainability in a water quantity–quality optimization model in the Rio Grande basin. Ecological Economics, 66(1), 23-37. doi:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2007.08.018Ward, F. A., & Pulido-Velazquez, M. (2009). Incentive pricing and cost recovery at the basin scale. Journal of Environmental Management, 90(1), 293-313. doi:10.1016/j.jenvman.2007.09.009Young, H. P. (1994). Chapter 34 Cost allocation. Handbook of Game Theory with Economic Applications, 1193-1235. doi:10.1016/s1574-0005(05)80066-9Young, H. P., Okada, N., & Hashimoto, T. (1982). 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Central Florida Future, Vol. 35 No. 20, October 24, 2002

Candidates ignore students higher education; Parading their protest: Greeks refuse to build floats.https://stars.library.ucf.edu/centralfloridafuture/2638/thumbnail.jp

Tar and timber: Governing forest commons in seventeenth century Northern Finland

This thesis investigates how peasants regulated and shared forest resources in North Ostrobothnia during the seventeenth century where large-scale tar and timber production took place. The forests were owned as commons by peasant communities on village and parish level and became increasingly exploited during the century. The aim of the thesis is to demonstrate how the growing importance of forest resources affected the ability of peasants to govern and share forest resources in a sustainable way. Focus is therefore put on the institutional organisation of peasant communities and emphasises the complexity of how governance within village and parish communities developed. Three interrelated dimensions of sustainability are considered: ecological, institutional, and economic sustainability. The thesis also seeks to explain how burghers and Swedish state officials influenced this development. This is done by qualitatively and quantitatively analysing local district protocols, maps, and Swedish legislation. The thesis shows how peasant communities achieved balance between the three dimensions of sustainability. This ensured that they did not undermine the ecological underpinnings on which they depended, that their institutional organisation remained robust, and that they could make a living. This was possible through the prioritisation of rules and borders through collective action. The thesis also shows an increasing level of nestedness within peasant communities. This development was both enabled and inhibited by the peasants’ relation to burghers and Swedish state officials who became involved in the nestedness of peasant institutions

Human mediated physical and virtual water transfers of the United States: Who uses the water?

Globalization has strengthened and expanded connections between consumers and distant water resources used in production, by enabling consumer demand in one location to be fulfilled with production and resource use in another. Many of the environmental consequences associated with water-intensive production, particularly agricultural production, are not felt by those consuming the products but are left as an artifact for producing communities. Consumers increasing dependency and influence on nonlocal water use decisions can lead to water scarcity, groundwater depletion, or other environmental impacts, but, with better understanding, can provide an opportunity for innovative and sustainable solutions to local water issues. The primary goal of this dissertation is to better understand the telecouplings between nonlocal consumers, which drive transfers of water and water-intensive goods, and the overexploitation of local water resources. There is an incongruity between the scale at which water is studied and managed and the scale that water dependencies and impacts coalesce; this dissertation begins to resolve this mismatch of scale. This work provides an important first step toward empowering producers, consumers, water planners, and decision makers to manage water resources more holistically and at the appropriate scale by linking understanding of local production water consumption with new knowledge of virtual water transfers - that is, the water embedded in the production of traded commodities. We draw upon publicly available data on agricultural production, water withdrawals and consumption, water infrastructure, and trade, as well as modeled estimates of agricultural water requirements to quantify virtual water transfers between producers and consumers. A novel dimension of this research is the fine spatial, temporal, commodity, and water source resolution made possible through empirically-based datasets and our unique methodological approach. In this dissertation, we quantify and track agricultural virtual groundwater transfers from the overexploited Mississippi Embayment, High Plains, and Central Valley aquifer systems in the United States to their final destination. Specifically, we determine which US metropolitan areas, US states, and international export destinations are currently the largest consumers of these critical aquifers. Next, we study drought impacts to food and virtual water transfers from the Central Valley of California and examine the linkage between distant consumption of virtual water resources and local water impacts. More broadly, this study elucidates how local climate shocks reverberate through the global food system, highlighting the importance of complex interactions in the coupled climate-food-water system, and the critical role of local groundwater depletion. A comprehensive, high-resolution database was also created that estimates the water footprint of US production and the virtual water contents of food, energy, services, manufacturing, and mining products produced within the US. This work elucidates how different water sources within the US support the country's economy, explicitly relating these water sources to over 500 different industries and products. Finally, an interdisciplinary framework to mitigate the complex social and natural barriers to physical water transfers is put forth.Ope

Human mediated physical and virtual water transfers of the United States: Who uses the water?

Globalization has strengthened and expanded connections between consumers and distant water resources used in production, by enabling consumer demand in one location to be fulfilled with production and resource use in another. Many of the environmental consequences associated with water-intensive production, particularly agricultural production, are not felt by those consuming the products but are left as an artifact for producing communities. Consumers increasing dependency and influence on nonlocal water use decisions can lead to water scarcity, groundwater depletion, or other environmental impacts, but, with better understanding, can provide an opportunity for innovative and sustainable solutions to local water issues. The primary goal of this dissertation is to better understand the telecouplings between nonlocal consumers, which drive transfers of water and water-intensive goods, and the overexploitation of local water resources. There is an incongruity between the scale at which water is studied and managed and the scale that water dependencies and impacts coalesce; this dissertation begins to resolve this mismatch of scale. This work provides an important first step toward empowering producers, consumers, water planners, and decision makers to manage water resources more holistically and at the appropriate scale by linking understanding of local production water consumption with new knowledge of virtual water transfers - that is, the water embedded in the production of traded commodities. We draw upon publicly available data on agricultural production, water withdrawals and consumption, water infrastructure, and trade, as well as modeled estimates of agricultural water requirements to quantify virtual water transfers between producers and consumers. A novel dimension of this research is the fine spatial, temporal, commodity, and water source resolution made possible through empirically-based datasets and our unique methodological approach. In this dissertation, we quantify and track agricultural virtual groundwater transfers from the overexploited Mississippi Embayment, High Plains, and Central Valley aquifer systems in the United States to their final destination. Specifically, we determine which US metropolitan areas, US states, and international export destinations are currently the largest consumers of these critical aquifers. Next, we study drought impacts to food and virtual water transfers from the Central Valley of California and examine the linkage between distant consumption of virtual water resources and local water impacts. More broadly, this study elucidates how local climate shocks reverberate through the global food system, highlighting the importance of complex interactions in the coupled climate-food-water system, and the critical role of local groundwater depletion. A comprehensive, high-resolution database was also created that estimates the water footprint of US production and the virtual water contents of food, energy, services, manufacturing, and mining products produced within the US. This work elucidates how different water sources within the US support the country's economy, explicitly relating these water sources to over 500 different industries and products. Finally, an interdisciplinary framework to mitigate the complex social and natural barriers to physical water transfers is put forth.Ope