16,465 research outputs found
von Neumann-Morgenstern and Savage Theorems for Causal Decision Making
Causal thinking and decision making under uncertainty are fundamental aspects
of intelligent reasoning. Decision making under uncertainty has been well
studied when information is considered at the associative (probabilistic)
level. The classical Theorems of von Neumann-Morgenstern and Savage provide a
formal criterion for rational choice using purely associative information.
Causal inference often yields uncertainty about the exact causal structure, so
we consider what kinds of decisions are possible in those conditions. In this
work, we consider decision problems in which available actions and consequences
are causally connected. After recalling a previous causal decision making
result, which relies on a known causal model, we consider the case in which the
causal mechanism that controls some environment is unknown to a rational
decision maker. In this setting we state and prove a causal version of Savage's
Theorem, which we then use to develop a notion of causal games with its
respective causal Nash equilibrium. These results highlight the importance of
causal models in decision making and the variety of potential applications.Comment: Submitted to Journal of Causal Inferenc
Probabilistic Hybrid Action Models for Predicting Concurrent Percept-driven Robot Behavior
This article develops Probabilistic Hybrid Action Models (PHAMs), a realistic
causal model for predicting the behavior generated by modern percept-driven
robot plans. PHAMs represent aspects of robot behavior that cannot be
represented by most action models used in AI planning: the temporal structure
of continuous control processes, their non-deterministic effects, several modes
of their interferences, and the achievement of triggering conditions in
closed-loop robot plans.
The main contributions of this article are: (1) PHAMs, a model of concurrent
percept-driven behavior, its formalization, and proofs that the model generates
probably, qualitatively accurate predictions; and (2) a resource-efficient
inference method for PHAMs based on sampling projections from probabilistic
action models and state descriptions. We show how PHAMs can be applied to
planning the course of action of an autonomous robot office courier based on
analytical and experimental results
Progress in AI Planning Research and Applications
Planning has made significant progress since its inception in the 1970s, in terms both of the efficiency and sophistication of its algorithms and representations and its potential for application to real problems. In this paper we sketch the foundations of planning as a sub-field of Artificial Intelligence and the history of its development over the past three decades. Then some of the recent achievements within the field are discussed and provided some experimental data demonstrating the progress that has been made in the application of general planners to realistic and complex problems. The paper concludes by identifying some of the open issues that remain as important challenges for future research in planning
Logic, Probability and Action: A Situation Calculus Perspective
The unification of logic and probability is a long-standing concern in AI,
and more generally, in the philosophy of science. In essence, logic provides an
easy way to specify properties that must hold in every possible world, and
probability allows us to further quantify the weight and ratio of the worlds
that must satisfy a property. To that end, numerous developments have been
undertaken, culminating in proposals such as probabilistic relational models.
While this progress has been notable, a general-purpose first-order knowledge
representation language to reason about probabilities and dynamics, including
in continuous settings, is still to emerge. In this paper, we survey recent
results pertaining to the integration of logic, probability and actions in the
situation calculus, which is arguably one of the oldest and most well-known
formalisms. We then explore reduction theorems and programming interfaces for
the language. These results are motivated in the context of cognitive robotics
(as envisioned by Reiter and his colleagues) for the sake of concreteness.
Overall, the advantage of proving results for such a general language is that
it becomes possible to adapt them to any special-purpose fragment, including
but not limited to popular probabilistic relational models
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