205,964 research outputs found

    Global warming impact on climate change in Serbia for the period 1961-2100

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    Serbia is situated at Balkan Peninsula, and currently majority of the territory is under warm temperate fully humid climate type with warm summers (Cfb type, according to Koppen-Geiger Climate Classification). Observed changes in climate conditions since 1961 until present time show significant increase in temperature change and change in precipitation patterns. Disturbances in heat conditions, which are recorded to affect human health, agricultural production and forest ecosystem, are priority in climate change analysis and application in adaptation planning. Future change analysis show accelerated increase of temperature by the end of the 21st century, which proves the needs for immediate measures for mitigation of negative impacts. Temperature increase averaged over the territory of Serbia is 1.2 degrees C for the period 1996-2015 with respect to the period 1961-1980, with highest increase of maximum daily temperature during the summer season, 2.2 degrees C. Using high resolution multi-model ensemble approach for analysis of the future changes with respect to the base period 1986-2005, in compliance with Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) fifth assessment report (ARS), it is estimated that temperature may increase by 1.9 degrees C according to Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) scenario and by 4.4 degrees C according to RCP8.5 by the end of the century. Spatial distribution of temperature increase, intensification of high precipitation events and decrease of summer precipitation, show intrusion of subtropical climate over the Serbia and increase of high temperature and high precipitation risks. Results presented in this paper, using high-resolution multi-model ensemble approach, provide climate change information for short term to long term planning in different sectors of economy and preservation of human health and environment

    Recovery Planning for Pacific Marine Species at Risk in the Wake of Climate Change and Ocean Acidification: Canadian Practice, Future Courses

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    This article evaluates how Canadian recovery planning for Pacific marine species at risk incorporates two pressing 21st century concerns: global climate change and ocean acidification (OA). While many recovery strategies for Pacific species at risk show some understanding of climate change or OA, they generally fail to incorporate key climate and OA information or to consider how these two issues will actually affect the species in question. Two strategies for progress are suggested. First is an administrative strategy that includes the development of a national climate change adaptation strategy, which clarifies how projected climate and ocean acidification impacts should be incorporated into decision-making under the Species at Risk Act (SARA). Second is a legal course that includes an amendment of SARA or regulations thereunder that require up-to-date climate and ocean acidification information to be incorporated during recovery planning. In addition to the administrative and legal courses suggested, a precautionary, yet bold and flexible approach to recovery planning is advocated that aims to achieve species resilience rather than meeting historical population levels (which may already be impossible to achieve given shifting ecological, biological and physical baselines. This article is a follow up to a similar piece that examined Atlantic species at risk

    Climate Change Adaptation for Southern California Groundwater Managers: A Case Study of the Six Basins Aquifer

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    Groundwater has been very important to the economic development of Southern California, and will continue to be a crucial resource in the 21st century. However, Climate Change threatens to disrupt many of the physical and economic processes that control the flow of water in and out of aquifers. One groundwater manager, the Six Basins Watermaster in eastern Los Angeles and western San Bernardino Counties, has developed a long-term planning document called the Strategic Plan that mostly fails to address the implications of Climate Change, especially for local water supplies. This thesis presents an in-depth analysis of the Six Basin Watermaster’s Strategic Plan as a case-study of how groundwater managers can improve their planning assumptions to better prepare for Climate Change. It begins with a brief history of how Southern California’s environment influenced the development of the institutions that manage the Six Basins’ groundwater, then provides a physical description of the aquifer itself. The current scientific literature on Climate Change’s expected impacts on California water supplies are summarized, and the implications of these impacts for basin management are highlighted. The Strategic Plan’s projects are evaluated and critiqued in light of these insights, including a need for the Strategic Plan to: explicitly consider Climate Change in its planning assumptions, use decision-making frameworks that account for uncertainty, and prepare for more frequent droughts and floods in the future. Climate Change will have important effects on how Southern California’s groundwater is managed, and the Six Basins Strategic Plan should be revised to better account for these impacts

    Modeling the Effects of Forecasted Climate Change and Glacier Recession on Late Summer Streamflow in the Upper Nooksack River Basin

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    Like many watersheds in the North Cascades range of Washington State, USA, streamflow in the Nooksack River is strongly influenced by precipitation and snowmelt in the spring and glacial ice melt in the warmer summer months. With a maritime climate and high relief containing approximately 34km2 of glacial ice, the streamflow response in the Nooksack River basin is sensitive to increases in temperature. Climate projections from global climate models (GCMs) for the 21st Century indicate increases in temperature with variable changes to precipitation. The watershed is a valuable freshwater resource for regional municipalities, industry, and agriculture, and provides critical habitat for endangered salmon species. Thus, understanding the impacts of forecasted climate change is critical for water resources planning purposes. I apply publically available statistically derived 1/16 degree gridded surface climate data along with the Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM) with newly developed coupled dynamic glacier model to simulate hydrologic and glacial processes through the end of the 21st Century. Simulation results project median winter streamflows to more than double by 2075 due to more precipitation falling as rain rather than snow, and median summer flows to decrease by more than half with a general shift in peak snowmelt derived spring flows toward earlier in the spring. Glaciers are projected to retreat significantly with smaller glaciers disappearing entirely. Ice melt contribution to streamflow is likely to play an important role in sustaining summer baseflows in the Nooksack River. Glacier melt derived streamflow is projected to increase throughout the first half of the 21st century and decrease in the latter half after glacier ice volume decreases substantially

    Emerging climate-driven disturbance processes: Widespread mortality associated with snow-to-rain transitions across 10° of latitude and half the range of a climate-threatened conifer

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    Climate change is causing rapid changes to forest disturbance regimes worldwide. While the consequences of climate change for existing disturbance processes, like fires, are relatively well studied, emerging drivers of disturbance such as snow loss and subsequent mortality are much less documented. As the climate warms, a transition from winter snow to rain in high latitudes will cause significant changes in environmental conditions such as soil temperatures, historically buffered by snow cover. The Pacific coast of North America is an excellent test case, as mean winter temperatures are currently at the snow–rain threshold and have been warming for approximately 100 years post-Little Ice Age. Increased mortality in a widespread tree species in the region has been linked to warmer winters and snow loss. Here, we present the first high-resolution range map of this climate-sensitive species, Callitropsis nootkatensis (yellow-cedar), and document the magnitude and location of observed mortality across Canada and the United States. Snow cover loss related mortality spans approximately 10° latitude (half the native range of the species) and 7% of the overall species range and appears linked to this snow–rain transition across its range. Mortality is commonly >70% of basal area in affected areas, and more common where mean winter temperatures is at or above the snow–rain threshold (>0 °C mean winter temperature). Approximately 50% of areas with a currently suitable climate for the species (< 2 °C) are expected to warm beyond that threshold by the late 21st century. Regardless of climate change scenario, little of the range which is expected to remain suitable in the future (e.g., a climatic refugia) is in currently protected landscapes (<1–9%). These results are the first documentation of this type of emerging climate disturbance and highlight the difficulties of anticipating novel disturbance processes when planning for conservation and management.Ye

    Assessment of uncertainties in projected temperature and precipitation over the Arabian Peninsula using three categories of CMIP5 multimodel ensembles

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    Background: Projections of temperature and precipitation with low uncertainties are key parameters to climate change related studies. Purpose: The projected temperature and precipitation and their uncertainties over the Arabian Peninsula for the 21st century for three CMIP5 multimodel ensembles under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 are examined in this paper. Methods: Analyzing the performance of 30 CMIP5 model individually, they are categorized into three groups for the present climate (1976–2005). By applying simple model averaging ensemble method, three multimodel ensemble means, namely: (i) all CMIP5 models ensemble (AME), (ii) selected CMIP5 models ensemble (SME), and (iii) best-performing CMIP5 models ensemble (BME) are developed. Results Over the Arabian Peninsula, a continuous rise in temperature is obtained in all three ensembles (i.e., AME, SME, and BME) in the 21st century. The BME shows enhanced changes in temperature at the end of 21st century as compared to AME and SME. Moreover, the BME shows a remarkable reduction in uncertainties for the projected temperature. The AME, SME, and BME show strong inter-annual variability for the projected precipitation over the peninsula. Compared to AME and SME, the BME revealed enhanced positive change in the annual mean precipitation by the end of 21st century. Conclusions: Regionally, southern/northwestern areas of the peninsula receive enhanced/reduced future precipitation as compared to the present climate. The diferences in the projected precipitation and temperature signals increase largely between the three ensembles towards the end of 21st century. Therefore, it is concluded that selecting the best-performing models may lead a better planning by the policy makers and stakeholder for the region

    Climate change impacts on snow water availability in the Euphrates-Tigris basin

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    This study investigates the effects of projected climate change on snow water availability in the Euphrates-Tigris basin using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) macro scale hydrologic model and a set of regional climate-change outputs from 13 global circulation models (GCMs) forced with two greenhouse gas emission scenarios for two time periods in the 21st century (2050 and 2090). The hydrologic model produces a reasonable simulation of seasonal and spatial variation in snow cover and associated snow water equivalent (SWE) in the mountainous areas of the basin, although its performance is poorer at marginal snow cover sites. While there is great variation across GCM outputs influencing snow water availability, the majority of models and scenarios suggest a significant decline (between 10 and 60 percent) in available snow water, particularly under the high-impact A2 climate change scenario and later in the 21st century. The changes in SWE are more stable when multi-model ensemble GCM outputs are used to minimize inter-model variability, suggesting a consistent and significant decrease in snow-covered areas and associated water availability in the headwaters of the Euphrates-Tigris basin. Detailed analysis of future climatic conditions point to the combined effects of reduced precipitation and increased temperatures as primary drivers of reduced snowpack. Results also indicate a more rapid decline in snow cover in the lower elevation zones than the higher areas in a changing climate but these findings also contain a larger uncertainty. The simulated changes in snow water availability have important implications for the future of water resources and associated hydropower generation and land-use management and planning in a region already ripe for interstate water conflict. While the changes in the frequency and intensity of snow-bearing circulation systems or the interannual variability related to climate were not considered, the simulated changes in snow water availability presented here are likely to be indicative of climate change impacts on the water resources of the Euphrates-Tigris basin

    Klimatrisker på planerarnas agenda: Att hantera motstridiga krav och kunskapsosäkerhet

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    Under 2000-talet har frågan om klimatanpassning fått ökad uppmärksamhet. I Sverige har kommunerna fått ansvar för att ta hänsyn till klimatrelaterade risker i den fysiska planeringen. I denna studie belyses hur klimatanpassning och kunskapsosäkerheten avseende klimatförändringens lokala konsekven-ser hanteras i planeringen. Syftet är dels att diskutera vilka nya krav som klimatfrågan ställer på planerarna, dels att analysera hur planerare förhåller sig till och hanterar det utökade planeringsuppdraget. Tidigare forskning om planering som profession har visat på en förändring mot en ”modifierad expertroll”, där planerarna måste utveckla ny kompetens som samordnare och kommunikatörer. Denna studie visar att klimatanpassning lägger ytterligare en dimension till en förändrad roll där planeraren även fungerar som kunskapsmäklare mellan naturvetenskaplig expertis och andra aktörer. Studien visar också att frågan om klimatanpassning ramas in på olika sätt. Dels som en riskfråga vilket medför ett ökat beroende av extern naturvetenskapligt grundad expertis, dels som en planeringsfråga bland andra där planerarnas egen professionella kompetens betonas. ENGELSK ABSTRACT: Ylva Uggla and Sofie Storbjörk: Climate Risks on the Planning Agenda: Conflicting Claims and Uncertainties During the 21st century, adaption to climate change has received increasing attention. In Sweden, the municipalities are responsible for climate related risk in their physical planning. This study analyses how the city planners deal with adaption to climate change and uncertainty and their local consequences. Its aim is to discuss the new demands posed by climate change and analyze how planners manage this new assignment. Previous research has pointed out that there is a change in the role of these planners, in that they take on a “modified expert role”, where they have to develop new competences as coordinators and communicators. This study shows that adaption to climate change adds yet another dimension to the new role of planners; the planners function also as “knowledge brokers” between scientific expertise and other actors. The study also shows that the issue of climate change is framed in different ways. When adaptation to climate change is framed as a risk issue, there is increased dependence on scientific expertise, whereas when it is framed as a planning matter, emphasis it placed on the planners’ professional competence. Key words: Climate change, climate change adaptation, planning, profession

    Multivariate hybrid modelling of future wave-storms at the northwestern Black Sea

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    The characterization of future wave-storms and their relationship to large-scale climate can provide useful information for environmental or urban planning at coastal areas. A hybrid methodology (process-based and statistical) was used to characterize the extreme wave-climate at the northwestern Black Sea. The Simulating WAve Nearshore spectral wave-model was employed to produce wave-climate projections, forced with wind-fields projections for two climate change scenarios: Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. A non-stationary multivariate statistical model was built, considering significant wave-height and peak-wave-period at the peak of the wave-storm, as well as storm total energy and storm-duration. The climate indices of the North Atlantic Oscillation, East Atlantic Pattern, and Scandinavian Pattern have been used as covariates to link to storminess, wave-storm threshold, and wave-storm components in the statistical model. The results show that, first, under both RCP scenarios, the mean values of significant wave-height and peak-wave-period at the peak of the wave-storm remain fairly constant over the 21st century. Second, the mean value of storm total energy is more markedly increasing in the RCP4.5 scenario than in the RCP8.5 scenario. Third, the mean value of storm-duration is increasing in the RCP4.5 scenario, as opposed to the constant trend in the RCP8.5 scenario. The variance of each wave-storm component increases when the corresponding mean value increases under both RCP scenarios. During the 21st century, the East Atlantic Pattern and changes in its pattern have a special influence on wave-storm conditions. Apart from the individual characteristics of each wave-storm component, wave-storms with both extreme energy and duration can be expected in the 21st century. The dependence between all the wave-storm components is moderate, but grows with time and, in general, the severe emission scenario of RCP8.5 presents less dependence between storm total energy and storm-duration and among wave-storm components.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

    Maine\u27s climate future: an initial assessment

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    Earth’s atmosphere is experiencing unprecedented changes that are modifying global climate. Discussions continue around the world, the nation, and in Maine on how to reduce and eventually eliminate emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), other greenhouse gases, and other pollutants to the atmosphere, land, and oceans. These efforts are vitally important and urgent. However, even if a coordinated response succeeds in eliminating excess greenhouse gas emissions by the end of the century, something that appears highly unlikely today, climate change will continue, because the elevated levels of CO2 can persist in the atmosphere for thousands of years to come. In late 2007, Governor Baldacci asked the University of Maine and its ClimateChange Institute to lead a wide-ranging analysis of the state’s future in the context of changing climate during the 21st century. The assignment involved making use of existing knowledge and understanding of climate change; the terrestrial, freshwater, and marine ecosystems that characterize our environment; and the socioeconomic characteristics of the state. The project involved no financial support for new research or data collection, but participating scientists contributed their time and expertise to initiate a process that could lead to systematic planning and thoughtful decisions for the future. Based on considerable prior research, this report serves as a preliminary step designed to frame future detailed analyses focused on Maine by teams that will likely continue for years
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